Why a recession won’t deter many homebuyers

Tackling recession fears

There’s obviously been a lot of talk recently about a possible recession. While it would be natural to assume this would deter buyers from entering the market, our second story shows that’s actually not the case.

In fact, a new Realtor.com survey found that nearly 30% of potential buyers say a recession would actually make them more likely to buy. We list the full survey results below.

This is the kind of information we love. It can help agents navigate conversations with their clients, give them clarity as to what’s really going on in the market, and help them reduce their fears.

 And now, let’s dig into today’s Blueprint.

- James and David

Home prices expected to fall

Both Zillow and Redfin have released updated home price forecasts. While they differ slightly, both project that home prices will fall by the end of 2025. Here are the projections from each company:

• Zillow:

  • Expects home prices to fall 0.9% between April 2025 and April 2026

  • Points to weakening markets in the Sun Belt as a drag on national prices

  • Forecasts 4.12 million home sales in 2025, up 1.4% from 2024

• Redfin:

  • Projects home prices to rise 2% in Q2, stay flat in Q3, and fall 1% YoY in Q4

  • Notes that aside from a brief dip in 2023, prices have risen YoY since 2012

  • Expects mortgage rates to hold around 6.8% through the end of 2025

Our take

Price growth is stalling, and that’s a shift every agent should be watching. While the declines forecasted by Zillow and Redfin are modest, they signal a cooling market where overpricing won’t fly. In a flat or falling price environment, sellers need to be more realistic, as buyers gain more leverage. This is the moment to double down on pricing strategy, emphasize seller concessions, and help buyers understand where the opportunities are, especially in softening Sun Belt markets.

Many buyers not deterred by recession fears

According to Realtor.com’s Q1 2025 Site Visitor Survey, 63.4% of buyers expect a recession within the next year, but nearly 30% say it would actually make them more likely to buy. Here’s a breakdown of shopper sentiment:

• 54.4% say a recession would have no impact on their homebuying decision

• 29.8% would be more likely to buy during a recession

• 15.8% would be less likely to buy

Our take

This survey reveals an important and surprising finding – while many buyers are uneasy about the economy, a significant number still plan to purchase. Use this info with any buyers who are on the fence. Emphasize the advantages of buying during a recession, like reduced competition, increased leverage, and the concessions builders and sellers are offering. Tackle financing challenges early by partnering with lenders. Most importantly, focus on life-driven buyers – those motivated by personal milestones, not just market headlines – and tailor your guidance to these deeper needs.

The top luxury sales in April

The highest-priced home sales last month came from three familiar luxury markets: coastal Florida, Beverly Hills, and Manhattan. Naples dominated the list with six of the top 10 sales, followed by two from Beverly Hills and two condos on Manhattan’s Billionaires’ Row. Half of these properties sold for more than $50 million, and all cleared $40 million.

These were the most expensive home sales in the country last month, according to Redfin:

1. 2200 Gordon Dr., Naples, FL 34102: Sold for $133.2 million

2. 88 La Gorce Cir., Miami Beach, FL 33141: Sold for $74.3 million

3. 1028 Ridgedale Dr., Beverly Hills, CA 90210: Sold for $60 million

4. 942 Alpine Dr., Beverly Hills, CA 90210: Sold for $51.8 million

5. 516 S. Ocean Blvd., Palm Beach, FL 33480: $51.4 million 

6. 2340 Gordon Dr., Naples, FL 34102: Sold for $46.9 million 

7. 111 W. 57th St. Unit 72, New York City, NY 10019: Sold for $46.9 million

8. 217 W. 57th St. Unit 116, New York City, NY 10019: Sold for $45.9 million 

9. 2170 Gordon Dr., Naples, FL 34102: Sold for $44.9 million 

10. 3080 N. Bay Rd., Miami Beach, FL 33140: Sold for $40 million

Our take

The ultra-luxury market isn’t cooling down. Wealthy buyers are strategically parking capital in high-end real estate to ride out market chaos, treating trophy properties as a safe haven. That’s why $50M+ deals are still closing in places like Naples, Beverly Hills, and Manhattan. Naples stands out as a hotspot, with Florida’s tax benefits, waterfront access, and new construction drawing deep-pocketed buyers. The takeaway for agents? Even in a volatile market, scarcity, location, and brand drive action. Whether you're selling a $5M home or a $500K one, the fundamentals of selling real estate still apply: price with purpose, tell a compelling story, and present the home as an opportunity, not just a listing.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• The ultra-wealthy are investing in luxury real estate to ride out the market chaos 

• Americans are moving back to big cities

• Why the number of agents switching brokerages spiked by 66% last quarter

• Why buyers and sellers aren’t replacing agents with tech

• Emma Stone just listed her Austin home for $26.5 million

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

New listings rose 8.4% YoY during the four weeks ending May 18, reaching their highest level in nearly three years. It’s a great time for agents to win new business. But once they land a listing, agents have to deliver. Selling quickly and for top dollar requires more than just putting it on the MLS. That’s why we’re kicking off a two-part mini-series on how to build a smart, effective listing marketing plan. 

In today’s edition, we’ll give you our first set of tips. On Tuesday, we’ll wrap up with three more, each one aimed at helping you maximize your listing’s sale price.

1. Offer Transparent Buyer Agent Compensation

Now that we are in our post-NAR settlement world, the buyer agent’s compensation should be part of any effective listing plan. When buyer agents see a competitive commission, they’re more motivated to show the property to their clients. This open communication demonstrates a seller's willingness to invest in a successful sale, which can result in increased interest from agents and, consequently, more buyer showings. Buyer agent compensation should be visible on all the legal marketing platforms, including online listings. This ensures transparency and attracts the widest pool of agents and buyers. We also think this is just good practice, and will pay dividends when you’re on the buyer’s side. 

2. Provide Convenient Access to Property Details for Buyer Agents

Make essential property information easily accessible to buyer agents. Provide downloadable resources, like property brochures, floor plans, and high-quality images. This can simplify the process for agents and increase their likelihood of scheduling showings. Agents appreciate listings with clear, organized, and easily accessible information, as it allows them to answer questions quickly and present the property to potential buyers more effectively.

3. Build Excitement and Interest Ahead of the Listing Launch

Create anticipation with a pre-launch marketing campaign. This is a powerful way to generate buzz. Your strategy can involve sharing teasers on social media, sending “coming soon” emails to local agents and potential buyers, and hosting VIP previews or neighborhood open houses. By building excitement before the official launch, potential buyers become eager to view the property, increasing the chances of multiple offers and, ultimately, driving up the sale price.

We’ll conclude our mini-series on Tuesday, but we think this is an excellent starting place. In the meantime, check out this great post from Jimmy Burgess.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

Have a great Memorial Day weekend, friends. Use the time to rest, recharge, and refocus. Next week is the start of summer! We’ll see you back here next Tuesday.

- James and David