What to expect from the housing market in 2026

Happy New Year!

Welcome to the first edition of “The Blueprint” in 2026!

We want to help you make this year even bigger and better than last year. And we start off with a banger of an edition today.

First, we do some level setting. In our top three stories –  our Triad – we break down what agents can expect this year when it comes to housing sales, inventory, and mortgage rates. Managing expectations – yours and your clients’ – will be critical in 2026. When clients get anxious, your job is to be the lighthouse in the storm. That starts with real knowledge.

Then, in Foundation Plans, we preview our latest Rise Above the Ranks conversation with Jason Oppenheim, star of Selling Sunset. It’s a standout conversation: one that surprised us in all the right ways. We walked away with takeaways we’re already thinking about implementing in our own business. And before becoming an agent, Jason spent three years traveling to 80 countries and even worked on the Enron case. Yeah, exactly, we didn’t know either. 

It was a fantastic conversation. You’ll get a lot out of it. 

With that, let’s get back into the swing of things and into the first Blueprint of 2026!

- James and David

Housing sales expected to tick up in ‘26

U.S. existing home sales are projected to be around 4.28 million in 2026. That’s according to ResiClub’s analysis of 18 resale forecast models. Below is how each forecaster expects existing-home sales to shake out this year :

• NAR: 4.6M

• Bright MLS: 4.51M

• Moody’s Analytics: 4.5M

• Fannie Mae: 4.37M

• MBA: 4.37M

• Reventure App: 4.32M

• Zonda: 4.3M

• Compass: 4.3M

• Miami Realtors: 4.3M

• Capital Economics: 4.3M

• Zillow: 4.26M

• Morgan Stanley: 4.23M

• Wells Fargo: 4.21M

• Redfin: 4.2M

• Yale School of Management: 4.2M

• Realtor.com: 4.13M

• Goldman Sachs: 3.98M

• Hunter Housing Economics: 3.91M

Our take

Although turnover will remain well below pre-pandemic norms as the lock-in effect continues to suppress housing churn, the average forecast points to a modest increase in existing-home sales in 2026. Any improvement is expected to be gradual, driven by rising household incomes, accumulated life events, and slightly lower mortgage rates heading into the 2026 spring selling season. The main upshot is this: sales activity appears to have bottomed, but a meaningful recovery in transaction volume is likely to remain slow and incremental.

Housing inventory will keep rising

The inventory of for-sale homes in the U.S. will rise by +9.93% in 2026, according to the average of the top inventory projections. Here’s how the leading forecasters see inventory growth breaking down:

1. Bright MLS: +10.9%

2. Compass (Mike Simonsen/Altos): +10.0% 

3. Realtor.com: +8.9%

If the average forecast holds, active inventory would climb to approximately 1.18 million homes by November 2026.

Our take

We give a lot of weight to this analysis because Lance Lambert and his team at Resiclub have been spot on in their prior inventory projections. And if they’re right again, that means the national inventory will be slightly above pre-pandemic levels by year-end. The pace of growth is slowing as supply normalizes, but the shift should continue to tilt leverage toward buyers, keeping price appreciation more restrained across more markets

Mortgage rates expected to remain close to 6.2%

The 30-year fixed mortgage will average around 6.18% in 2026, according to the average of the leading mortgage forecasters. This is the most comprehensive list of projections we’ve seen. Here’s what they each predict.  

• Hunter Housing Economics: 6.60%

• Capital Economics: 6.50%

• MBA: 6.40%

• PNC Bank: 6.40%

• Compass: 6.30%

• Realtor.com: 6.30%

• Redfin: 6.30%

• Windermere Real Estate: 6.25%

• Moody’s Analytics: 6.23%

• Cotality: 6.20%

• Yale School of Management: 6.20%

• NAHB: 6.17%

• Bright MLS: 6.15%

• Zonda: 6.10%

• Reventure App: 6.10%

• NAR: 6.00%

• Miami Realtors: 6.00%

• Morgan Stanley: 5.75%

• Erdmann Housing Tracker: 5.75%

Our take

The consensus view is that mortgage rates will hover near the low-6% range in 2026, suggesting incremental relief rather than a step-change in affordability. That outlook remains highly sensitive to macro conditions. A weaker-than-expected labor market or broader economic slowdown could push rates lower than currently projected, as could further normalization in mortgage spreads even without a major move in Treasury yields. Importantly, these projections reflect annual averages – not ceilings or floors – meaning rates could still swing meaningfully within the year, as they have historically.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

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• Video content ideas that actually work and that agents should use

• A January outreach strategy that leads to real conversations

• 2025 was the year of the $100M house

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

As we said up top, we had a fantastic conversation with Jason Oppenheim in our latest episode of Rise Above the Ranks. Jason explains how his success didn’t come from one breakthrough; it came through long seasons of self-doubt and uncertainty, deliberate decisions, and an obsessive commitment to craft. He traces his path from law to real estate, then from a scrappy, one-person operation to a global brand amplified by television. We took a lot from the conversation. Here’s a preview of some of the themes we cover.

1. Success is a long grind, not a single turning point – Jason rejects the “breakthrough moment” narrative and describes building his business as consistent effort: pushing the ball uphill through thousands of small, high-quality decisions. He highlights the pre-Netflix years as the period he’s most proud of because the success was earned through hard work apart from the show.

2. Luxury is an operating standard, not a price point –  In Jason’s view, agents succeed and survive downturns by treating every listing – especially “smaller” ones – with premium-level care: best-in-class marketing, staging, preparation, and relentless local knowledge. If you bring $5M-level execution to a $700K listing, you become “luxury” in practice, and you’re positioned to win when the market turns.

3. Brand-building is proactive: invest, control the message, and play the long game – Jason details how he transitioned from Coldwell Banker to launching his own firm with minimal infrastructure, then intentionally invested in visibility (office presence, ads, billboards) even when it felt expensive. Selling Sunset didn’t create the business out of thin air: it magnified a platform he had already built through discipline and smart self-promotion.

4. The market is being reshaped by policy and platform dynamics, and agents have to think structurally – Jason believes that agents need to be attentive to how structural policy issues, such as LA’s mansion tax, can shrink transaction volume and ripple into development, employment, and housing supply. Likewise, we end our conversation with a friendly debate about how consolidation and private listing ecosystems could reduce transparency and disadvantage smaller brokerages. It’s raising the stakes for agents because the rules of the game are changing. 

It’s a great conversation, and you’ll get a lot from it. Watch it, share it widely, and then tell us what you think.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“You’ve gotta keep control of your time, and you can’t unless you say no. You can’t let people set your agenda in life.” — Warren Buffett

Don’t let events or other people set your agenda. Stay ruthlessly focused on your goals, friends — your time is limited, and you only get one life. Make the most of it. Have a wonderful week. We’ll see you back here on Friday to help you crush it in ‘26!

- James and David