We're facing a crisis of confidence, not mortgage rates

And we’re live!!

For the past two months, I’ve been telling you about it, but today Breezy officially launches. After two years of building this, you can now finally use it. 

If you’ve ever spent your Sunday night pulling comps, missed a follow-up because it slipped through the cracks, or bounced between five different apps just to manage one deal, this is exactly what Breezy is built to fix. 

It’s now available in all the app stores and completely free to download. 

Scroll down to today’s Foundation Plans. I break down why I’ve been so focused on this after 25 years in the business, and how it can change the way you operate day-to-day. 

Go get Breezy and try it out. Once you use it, you’ll understand. I think you’ll love it.

- James

It’s a crisis of confidence, not mortgage rates

The average 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.23%, down from 6.3% last week and 6.81% a year ago, inching closer to the all-important 6% threshold. Still, even as borrowing costs improve and inventory tilts in the buyer’s favor, that hasn’t been enough to fuel deal volume. 

As realestatenews.com reports:

• Confidence—not affordability—is the real constraint – Despite improved conditions, buyers are hesitant due to economic uncertainty (including the war in Iran), with economists noting a “crisis of confidence” even as the market shifts in their favor.

• Sellers also sidelined by volatility – Homeowners are pausing listing decisions amid rate swings; stability—not just lower rates—is what’s needed to unlock more supply.

• Demand is showing early signs of life – Mortgage applications rose 7.9% week-over-week, with purchase applications up 10% and 14% year-over-year, supported by a still-strong labor market and rising inventory.

• Deals are fragile and falling apart more often – 13.4% of homes under contract were canceled in March (vs. 12.5% last year), well above the typical 10–11.5% range, signaling buyer hesitation even after going under contract.

My take

This is one of those moments where the data looks better than the behavior. Rates are moving in the right direction, and inventory is giving buyers leverage, but none of it really matters if people don’t feel confident enough to act. You can see it in the numbers—applications are up, but so are cancellations, which tells you buyers are stepping in, then second-guessing themselves. That’s not a pricing problem or even a pure affordability problem; it’s a psychology problem. Until there’s some stability – whether that’s rates flattening out, inflation clearly cooling, or geopolitical noise settling down – you’re going to keep getting this stop-start market where activity shows up in flashes but struggles to convert into actual closed deals. 

When admin starts eating into deal time, real estate teams hire EAs through Oceans Talent. Starting at $3,000/month.

Meet Tashia — Executive Assistant, Attorney-at-Law (University of London), 7+ years.

• Listings, diligence, and deal-flow docs

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"We brought our EA on for one thing. She ended up running the whole operation. When our social media coordinator left, she absorbed the entire function without missing a beat."

— Griff O'Brien, CEO, Estate Media

The homes that are still selling, even in a slow market

Even in a slow market, well-priced and move-in-ready homes are still selling quickly—revealing a growing divide between listings that move and those that sit. According to the WSJ, the typical home sat on the market for 56 days in March, but homes that actually sold went under contract in just 19 days, creating a 37-day gap, the widest for any March since 2020.

Here are the other key takeaways the Journal reveals:

• Move-in-ready homes are winning – Renovated, well-priced homes with no major issues are attracting immediate demand, sometimes triggering bidding wars and above-ask offers, even in slower markets.

• Buyers are far more selective – Unlike the pandemic-era frenzy, buyers today are “the opposite of indiscriminate,” prioritizing condition, pricing, and risk (especially avoiding homes needing repairs).

• Outdated homes are dragging the market – About 34% of listings need repairs or updates, and many sellers are trying to offload them as-is, leading to longer listing times and weaker demand.

• Seller expectations are misaligned – Nearly half of sellers expect to get their asking price, and over a third expect more, but those anchored to peak-era pricing are struggling as the market resets.

My take

As we said weeks ago, in today’s market, pricing correctly from day one isn’t optional—it’s the difference between selling and ending up with a stale listing—and this report backs that up. Yes, buyers have more leverage right now, but they’re using it selectively. They’re far more choosy, and the bar is higher. Even in a slow and hesitant market, homes that are renovated, well-priced, and truly move-in ready are still getting immediate demand – sometimes even bidding wars and above-ask offers – while everything else sits.

Markets where homesellers profited the most

In Q1 2026, homeowners made a 44.1% profit on typical single-family home and condo sales. According to ATTOM, that was down from 47.2% in the previous quarter and from 50.2%  in the first quarter of 2025.

That 44.1% profit margin is the lowest since Q1 2021, continuing a gradual decline from the 63.5% peak reached in Q2 2022. Still, even with that shift, margins are still well above the 30% levels sellers were seeing before the pandemic. 

Here are the top five metros with the largest year-over-year increases in seller profit margins:

1. Flint, MI

2. Evansville, IN

3. Lansing, MI

4. Canton, OH

5. Syracuse, NY

My take

Keep this report handy and share it with potential clients who are thinking about listing. Right now, sellers – like buyers – are cautious and dealing with their own crisis of confidence. Start by acknowledging that. Don’t dismiss it; they’re reacting to real headlines. But your role isn’t just to validate concern, it’s to provide clarity. Use your emotional intelligence along with hard facts like this to help clients understand where they actually stand, not just how they feel. Data like this gives you the context to reframe the conversation and show them the opportunities in front of them.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cuts

• NYC’s new tax explained: What it means for luxury real estate

• Leila Hormozi on the mistake agents make with unpredictable income

• The exact 30-day plan Chris Heller gives to new agents to land their first listing 

• Three content lessons every agent needs right now

• Ohio is luring Californians to the Midwest with sneaky tactic — and it’s working

Foundation Plans

Advice from James to win the day

For the past two years, I’ve been working on solving a problem I’ve dealt with my entire career —- trying to stay on top of everything without letting something slip through the cracks. 

That’s where Breezy comes in. At its core, Breezy isn't just technology. 

It's lived experience turned into a tool that gives agents their edge back so that they can stop drowning in the grind and chaos that comes with being an agent and start doing what they love. 

In the video below, I walk through why I built Breezy and how it’s designed to change the way you work.

Try it. I think it will revolutionize your life as an agent.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

"Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution."  – Attributed to Aristotle

Thanks for reading, friends. Excellence and success don’t happen by chance — they’re built through intention, focus, and consistent effort.

Have a wonderful weekend, and I’ll see you back here next Friday!

- James