Unsold new homes reach 16-year high

Welcome back

We hope you had a restful Labor Day weekend! 

As we do every year, we take this first Tuesday newsletter to set the stage for the rest of the year, look at the big picture of the entire market, and make sure you’re prepped to finish the year strong.

So far, one of the big stories of 2025 has been the unusual trend in the housing market, with new-home prices dipping below those of existing homes.

Today, we report on the state of unsold new homes, where inventory has hit its highest number since 2009. We’ll tell you what this means for your clients and your business.

Plus, in today’s Foundation Plans, we give you our best tips on how to make the most of your inventory… of time. With only four months left in the year, we want to help you make the most of every second so that you end the year on a high note.

With that, let’s kick off this edition of The Blueprint!

- James and David

Pending home sales slipped in July

Pending sales edged down 0.4% from June, but were up 0.7% compared with last year. That year-over-year jump is a reversal from June, which saw a 2.8% YoY drop, according to the new report from Realtor.com.

While existing-home sales managed a modest rebound, new-home sales fell 8.2% year over year, even as the premium for new construction has narrowed to historic lows. 

Regionally, contract signings fell month-over-month in the Midwest (-4%) and Northeast (-0.6%), stayed flat in the South (-0.1%), and rose in the West (+3.7%).

Here are other key takeaways:

• On the buyer side, affordability remains the key drag, with buyers constrained by high rates and sellers who are reluctant to cut prices. Mortgage rates held near 6.7% in July, offering little relief. 

• On the supply side, inventory expanded again, but showed signs of leveling off. New listings have fallen each month since April, while delistings are rising as some sellers pull back instead of discounting.

Our take

Pending sales typically lead existing-home sales by one to two months, so the July dip could be a sign of what’s to come. All eyes are on the potential Fed rate cut in September. With mortgage rates recently declining to 10-month lows, some buyers might get tempted back in the market. Mortgage applications will be the key metric to watch, and we’ll be keeping our eyes on that too.

Unsold new homes reach highest level since 2009

In July, there were 121,000 newly completed but unsold homes across the country, the highest level for July since 2009, when 126,000 stood unsold. According to Resiclub, many of the nation’s largest builders have acknowledged softer-than-expected conditions this year, particularly in Sun Belt markets. 

New-home sales totaled 56,000 in July, down 8.1% from 61,000 a year earlier, contributing to the buildup in unsold inventory.

Here’s how July’s unsold completed home inventory has trended over the past decade:

• July 2025: 121,000

• July 2024: 103,000

• July 2023: 70,000

• July 2022: 38,000

• July 2021: 34,000

• July 2020: 58,000

• July 2019: 80,000

• July 2018: 65,000

• July 2017: 65,000

• July 2016: 58,000

Our take

If resale listings and unsold new homes keep piling up, and builders are forced to cut margins further, we could see a sharper pullback in single-family permits and housing starts. For buyers, this is the moment to strike. Newly-built homes are now selling for less than existing ones, a rarity in the housing market. Agents should make sure their clients know their leverage.

Metros where mortgage originations are growing

In Q2 2025, mortgage lending gained momentum with 1.76 million residential mortgages issued, up 19.4% from Q1 and 6.3% higher than a year ago. Total dollar volume climbed to $601.7 billion, marking a 22.8% quarterly gain and a 10.3% year-over-year increase. 

Both purchase and refinance loans contributed to the growth, with HELOC activity also edging higher. Still, ATTOM notes the rebound was not a full housing recovery, but instead was driven by seasonal factors and modest rate declines, as volumes remain well below pandemic-era highs.

Here are the top 10 metros with the largest annual increases in total mortgage originations in Q2:

1. Anchorage, AK: +44.5%

2. Hilo, HI: +38.7%

3. Yuma, AZ: +38.6%

4. Huntington, WV: +36.1%

5. Ann Arbor, MI: +35.3%

6. Evansville, IN: +31.5%

7. Indianapolis, IN: 29.1%

8. Columbus, GA: +28.2%

9. Hilton Head Island, SC: +26.4%

10. Davenport, IA: +25.9%

Our take

We like to look at housing data from all different angles to get a better picture of what’s going on. As stated above, while mortgage activity showed strong momentum, this rebound appears more like a seasonal bounce, instead of a true housing recovery. The gains remain well below pandemic-era highs, with refinances only modestly rebounding and affordability challenges still in play. Agents should see this as a sign of short-term opportunity, not yet a structural turnaround in demand.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• How real estate has shifted dramatically in the past 5 years

• The five best IDX websites for realtors 

• The second-home mortgage tax break few Americans know about

• How to grow your real estate business on a budget 

• Inside Gwyneth Paltrow’s very pricey property portfolio

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

We’re going to briefly pause our series on lead generation to focus on something just as critical: your time. With only four months left in the year, every day matters. There are only so many hours in the week, and how you use them will determine how strong you’ll finish 2025. 

In today’s edition, we’ll share practical strategies to help you master your time and productivity. We’ll also link to concrete examples of how successful agents design their schedules to stay consistent, focused, and results-driven.

Preparation is key – You don’t want to wake up and say, “What am I doing today?” You want to eliminate any anxiety and uncertainty about the week. Make sure you know what you’re going to do each day, and have a plan of attack ready BEFORE the day, or even the week, begins. We recommend spending an hour every Sunday night reviewing your past week and previewing the next one. Ask yourself questions about the previous week. Who did I talk to? How was my sales activity? Who did I meet? Who needs to be in my CRM? Then ask questions about this week. Who are my hottest targets? Who am I trying to meet? What family/personal stuff is on my agenda? Basically, use the past to plan for the future.

Block your time and batch your activities – Once you’ve decided what you’re going to do each day, we recommend blocking your time and batching your activities. For example, give yourself a two-or-three hour block on Wednesday to farm an area or make all your follow-up calls. Also, batch your activities. Instead of writing an offer letter one minute and then making a follow-up phone call the next, group your similar activities together so that you get into a rhythm and flow. You’ll be more effective that way. 

Hold yourself accountable – Each Monday, every member of our team, including us, meets to discuss what we did in the past week. How many sales did we close? How many new contacts did we make? How many pending sales are in the pipeline? How closer are we to hitting our revenue goals? If you don’t have a team, get yourself a mentor or a person you trust and meet with them in person or via video. Make it a non-negotiable. The meeting doesn’t have to be long. Just enough to make sure you are staying on track. 

Concrete examples – Finally, to see how agents actually structure their day to be highly productive, read this and this!

What’s Happening in Estate Elite

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Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Just because you are doing a lot more doesn't mean you are getting a lot done. Don't confuse movement with progress!” – Denzel Washington

Progress isn’t about doing more, it’s about doing what matters most. Be intentional and focused in what you choose to do, friends. That’s how you build the business and life you want.

- James and David