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Unexpected twist in home sale numbers

Unexpected twist in home sale numbers

Plus, this might convince hesitant owners to sell

Rinku Mathew
October 27, 2023

Behind the Blueprint

We are so proud of the community we have built through this newsletter. It is so incredible to look back at how far we’ve come, and how big we’ve grown, in such a short time.

If you are curious to hear about how this all started, we recently sat down with our wizard behind the curtain, Blueprint co-founder and CEO Ben Teller, for a quick chat about why we started this newsletter and our online real estate course.

We feel we are doing something truly valuable here, and we hope you feel the same way.

Now on with today’s Blueprint!

- James and David

New home sales skyrocket in September

San Francisco: https://bit.ly/3PGKVDF

In an unexpected twist, new home sales skyrocketed in September, blowing past expectations. According to Zillow, homebuyers remain bullish on new construction, with sales up over a third from last year. Here are the key takeaways:

There were 759,000 new single-family home sales nationwide in September (SAAR), up 12.3% from August 2023 and up 33.9% from September 2022.
The median sales price of new houses sold in September was $418,800.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 435,000, a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales rate.

Our take

We’ve been saying for a while a now that new home sales are going to be the bright spot of the market for the rest of the year and well into 2024. We just didn’t expect new home sales to spike like this in September! But we’re elated by the news. Builders are offering mortgage rates in the 5’s right now. Use that intel to get buyers into the game and sellers off the sidelines.

GDP grew at a spectacular rate

Source: The Washington Post

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9% in Q3 of 2023, following a 2.1% gain in Q2, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) latest report on the economy. Here are the key stats:

This is the biggest growth rate since Q4 of 2021 and the fifth consecutive quarterly increase in GDP.
Half of GDP growth came from consumer spending, which rose at an annual rate of 4.0%, reflecting jumps in both services and goods.
Bottom line: the economy has defied all expectations of a slowdown or recession so far.

Our take

This is excellent news. Remember, last year forecasters were almost certain we’d be in a recession, so we are truly pleased. At the same time, however, we’re not getting carried away. Bond markets still need a lot of reassurance because they worry that the Fed will keep rates high for longer to keep inflation down. Until they see the Fed actually cut rates, bond yields will remain high for the next 6-8 months. Consequently, expect mortgage rates to remain high throughout 2024, unfortunately.

Homeseller profits continue to rise

Source: ATTOM

Profit margins on typical home sales nationwide increased to almost 60% in the quarter, the second straight quarterly increase. That’s according to ATTOM’s latest home sales report. Gross profits on typical single-family home and condo sales across the country also went up during Q3 of 2023. They rose 5% quarterly to $129,900, and were up 3.2% annually.

Here are the top 5 metros that saw the biggest quarterly increases in profit margins

Scranton, PA
Reading, PA
Flint, MI
Evansville, IN
Roanoke, VA

Our take

Homeowners are sitting on a hot commodity. They can get top dollar IF they are willing to sell. We’re fully aware that owners feel locked into their rates right now, but there are some incentives. They can get top dollar for their home, and they can use the concessions that home builders are offering to get a brand new home with around 5% mortgage rates. That’s not all. They can use the profits from their sale to get further rate buydowns. We know not everyone will want to take these steps, but it’s worth discussing with potential clients.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

Seattle: https://bit.ly/3NdQ3xD

Conversation starters to use with home sellers
Meet Redfin Max: Redfin’s new split structure where agents can make up to 75%
REAL’s new tools for agent success
UBS’s list of the most overvalued real estate markets in the world
Builders enjoy a world of sub-6% mortgage rates

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

As we mentioned up top, we sat down with Blueprint co-founder and CEO Ben Teller for a quick chat about why we started this venture, and what you can expect from us going forward. If you prefer the quick summary, here you go:

Why we started the Blueprint – When we first started, we wished we had someone who would mentor us in this business. This is our way of paying it forward. We want agents to be great. We believe that our industry is truly better when all of us are at the top of our game. There are plenty of homes to go around!

What we’re up to – We were never planning on creating a course, but the idea grew organically once we had many agents reach out for advice. We highly encourage you to join the course because you’ll become part of a community of like-minded agents who want to build each other up for success.

What you can expect from us going forward – We believe that next year will be a challenging one for agents. While deals will be hard to come by, we believe with the proper preparation and approach, agents can still score deals. So what can you expect from us going forward? Our very best intel, advice, and resources to help you succeed.

Listen to the conversation, and let us know what you think. We hope you enjoy it!

The 1% Blueprint

An on-demand course created by James & David

Discover our strategies and techniques to attract a stream of high-quality leads, propelling your real estate business to new heights of success.

For Blueprint subscribers, the course is 30% for a limited time. If you’d like to take our course to learn how to become the top 1% of your market click here!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

Source: Mortgage News Daily

That’s a wrap on this edition of The Blueprint!

Remember: each day is a gift and a new opportunity to lead the life you want and to become the person you want to be. The mistakes and missteps you’ve made in the past don’t define you. Live as intentionally as you can and be ruthlessly focused on the goals you’ve set out to achieve. You can do it!

Thanks for reading, and we’ll see you back here on Tuesday!

- James and David