Top 10 housing markets about to explode

Plus, our take on Goldman’s housing forecast

A helpful quote

“You do not rise to the level of your goals. You fall to the level of your systems.” That’s a terrific quote from James Clear, an expert on habits and decision-making.

We all have very big goals, but we can’t achieve them without airtight systems that help us on a daily basis. As we head into a new year, this is a perfect opportunity for all of us to take time to evaluate our systems and make sure they’re working for us.

Scroll down to today’s Foundation Plans for some of our tips on how to build systems that work for you.

We want to help you start 2024 with a bang!

- James and David

Mortgage applications surge

San Francisco, CA

Mortgage-purchase applications are up 19% since last month, according to Redfin’s latest market update. This stems from falling mortgage rates and a sizable jump in new listings. Here are other key findings from November:

  • New listings are up 8% year-over-year, the biggest jump since July 2021

  • The total number of homes for sale is still down 5% YoY

  • Median days on market is 36 days, down from 39 last year

  • The share of homes sold above list price is 26%, up 2% YoY

  • The share of homes with a price drop is 5.3%, up 0.4% YoY

Our take

What a difference a great inflation report makes! After the September report, we worried that the Fed was going to keep rates higher for longer. But the latest numbers definitely leave us feeling far more optimistic about the future. However, it’s not all great news. While new listings are rising, the total number of homes for sale is still down. That said, things are looking up and we’re headed in the right direction.

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Goldman’s housing forecast for 2024

Goldman Sachs has issued its forecast for the housing market, giving us their look into the future of real estate several years down the road. Here are the report’s main predictions:

  • U.S. GDP will grow on an annualized basis by 2.5% and 2.1% in 2023 and 2024 respectively

  • Inflation (CPI) will end the year at 3.2% and 2.4% in 2023 and 2024

  • 3.83 million homes will be sold in 2024, but that will rise to 4.24 million in 2025 and 4.37 million in 2026

  • 30-year fixed mortgage will range between 6.25% and 7.35%

  • Home prices will rise for the foreseeable future

    • +0.6% in 2024

    • +3.8% in 2025

    • +4.9% in 2026

    • +4.9% in 2027

Our take

While Goldman’s forecast for home sales seems too bearish to us since mortgage rates will continue to drop, those home price projections are in line with other forecasts we’ve seen. There will be no housing crash in 2024. In fact, things are looking better than we thought just a quarter ago. Let’s give credit where it’s due. The Fed has orchestrated a soft landing for 2023. GDP is positive, unemployment is low, and inflation is trending downward. Nobody was banking on that at the start of the year.

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Markets with the most pent-up housing demand

NAR has identified the following metros with the most pent-up housing demand. This statistic is based on how local markets compare to the national level using 10 crucial economic indicators, such as the number of affordable listings and potential sellers, job growth, and income growth.

Here’s their list:

  1. Austin, TX

  2. Dallas, TX

  3. Dayton, OH

  4. Durham, NC

  5. Harrisburg, PA

  6. Houston, TX

  7. Nashville, TN

  8. Philadelphia, PA

  9. Portland, MN

  10. Washington, DC

Our take

We recommend reading the whole report. It’s quick and quite instructive. For example, we didn’t know this, but among the 100 largest metro areas, Dallas had the second fastest-growing job market. The local economy was able to create more than 4% additional jobs compared to the previous year. With 22% of renters able to afford to buy the median-priced home, it’s not unreasonable to think that housing activity will increase in this area. This is valuable intel. It’s the kind of information that can convince even the most hesitant clients to consider making a move.

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The news that just missed the cut

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

As 2023 is winding down, we’d like to offer you three thoughts to help you start the new year with a bang.

Make sure you have your KPIs in place – By now, you should have your business plan for 2024 in place. In addition to having a plan, though, make sure you know your key performance indicators. They may vary depending on what you prioritize. For most agents, we recommend tracking the following three KPIs regarding lead generation: an appointment goal, a conversation goal, and an outreach goal. If you can’t track these metrics, you’ll be flying blind.

Your systems, not your goals, determine your success – “You do not rise to the level of your goals. You fall to the level of your systems.” That’s from James Clear and he’s absolutely right. It’s not enough to have ambitious goals and it’s not enough to even track whether you’re achieving them or not. You need systems in place to help you achieve your goals. Systems refer to the processes, habits, routines, and consistent actions that we follow regularly to make progress or achieve our goals. While goals provide direction and motivation, it's the systems or the daily habits and actions that truly determine whether we'll achieve those goals. If your systems or daily actions aren't aligned with your goals, you're likely to fall short of achieving them, regardless of how great those goals are.

Host a First-Time Homebuyer/Seller Seminar – We’d like to leave you with a lead generation idea we haven’t shared before. Host a first-time homebuyer or seller seminar in your area. Do this in person or online. There are so many ways to connect with people now. The point is to establish and burnish yourself as a knowledgeable go-to broker in your market while also increasing your base of influence and circle of contacts.

The 1% Blueprint

An on-demand course created by James & David

Discover our strategies and techniques to attract a stream of high-quality leads, propelling your real estate business to new heights of success.

For Blueprint subscribers, the course is 30% for a limited time. If you’d like to take our course to learn how to become the top 1% of your market click here!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

Source: Mortgage News Daily

That’s a wrap on this edition of The Blueprint!

Even though the holidays are fast approaching, don’t hesitate to message us. Send us a note with your comments, questions, or suggestions. We love hearing from you!

Thanks for reading, and we’ll see you back here on Friday!

- James and David