The ultraluxury market is white-hot

The growing gap

One of the biggest themes of our current real estate market has been the growing gap between the luxury market and the rest of the housing market.

Today’s report proves that yet again.

As you’ll see in our first story, every one of the 10 largest home sales in 2025 traded at $100 million or more. That’s never happened before. We break down why this is happening and why it’s unlikely to slow anytime soon.

On the subject of slowing down, too often, agents get caught up in the daily grind and don’t make time to build the systems that could simplify their work and improve their results. They lose sight of the big picture, struggling to separate the signal from the noise. In today’s Foundation Plans, we explore why agents need to start thinking like CEOs through our conversation with HousingWire CEO Clayton Collins.

With that, let’s dig into today’s Blueprint!

- James and David

The biggest sales of 2025

For the first time on record, every one of the 10 largest home sales of the year traded at $100 million or more. According to the Wall Street Journal’s latest report on luxury real estate, 2025 produced ten $100 million home sales – up from seven in 2024 and five in 2023.

Most of the major deals were in Florida. There were 19 sales above $50 million in Florida in 2025, compared with 12 in New York and 10 in California. Miami alone had four sales above $100 million; before 2025, the city had just two nine-digit sales in its history. 

Luxury buyers are placing such a premium on location and control that even vacant plots of land in Miami and Palm Beach commanded nine-figure prices last year.

Here are the top sales of 2025:

1. Naples, Florida – $225M

2. Palm Beach, Florida – $177M

3. Snowmass, Colorado – $120M

4. Miami Beach, Florida – $120M

5. East Hampton, New York – $115M

6. Los Angeles, California – $110M (630 Nimes Rd.)

7. Los Angeles, California – $110M (590 Mapleton)

8. Miami, Florida – $105M

9. Miami Beach, Florida – $105M

10. Miami, Florida – $101.5M

Our take

The broader housing market had a tough year in 2025. The ultraluxury market didn’t; it was white-hot. $100 million-plus deals are no longer one-off events. Since the pandemic, there have been an average of 40 home sales a year above $50 million. Wealthy buyers – insulated from mortgage rates, inventory constraints, and affordability pressures – are using real estate to park money, diversify their portfolios, and hedge against inflation. As long as our K-shaped economy sticks around, it’s hard to see this trend changing anytime soon. Right now, the ultraluxury market has all the momentum.

Generational wealth is fueling luxury home sales

In 2025, $6 trillion changed hands from older generations to younger ones. That’s according to the latest update on generational wealth and real estate from Realtor.com. Here are the key takeaways from the report.

• Through 2048, an estimated $124 trillion will transfer from the Silent Generation and baby boomers to the younger generations (i.e., Gen X, millennials, Gen Z, etc.).

• Of the $124 trillion, $25 trillion will be put into real estate. 

• Generational buyers are prioritizing lifestyle and wealth preservation, favoring scarce, prime locations – from Palm Beach and Laguna Beach to Manhattan, Martha’s Vineyard, and select international markets – over purely financial returns.

• Luxury thresholds are rising nationally, with U.S. luxury now starting at $1.2 million, ultraluxury at $5.49 million, and far higher entry points in coastal and global gateway markets.

Our take

Intergenerational wealth transfers will play a pivotal role over the next decade. They will underwrite the next cycle of luxury demand. For heirs, real estate is less about maximizing yield and more about permanence – control, lifestyle, and intergenerational continuity – making prime assets uniquely resilient. For agents and developers operating at the high end, this shift favors long-term relationship building, local market mastery, and advisory-level guidance over transactional volume. Luxury housing is increasingly functioning not as a trade but as a multigenerational balance sheet asset, and the buyers arriving now are thinking decades ahead.

Safety, Stability, and Why Low-Risk Markets Matter

Global investors tend to chase growth headlines, but long-term real estate value is often built on something quieter: stability. Safety, governance, and predictability rarely trend on social media, yet they consistently show up in markets that outperform over time.

Portugal continues to punch above its weight on global stability metrics, and investors are paying attention. The Global Peace Index ranks Portugal the 7th safest country in the world, ahead of Switzerland, Japan, and Canada. Low crime rates, political predictability, and institutional stability consistently place it among Europe’s lowest-risk environments for long-term living and investment.

That stability is especially relevant in established resort destinations like Vilamoura and Palmares, where long-term master planning, controlled development, and strong local governance help protect downside risk. These are not speculative markets built on rapid turnover. They are destination communities designed to endure economic cycles.

The Economist recently named Portugal “Economy of the Year” for 2025, citing resilient GDP growth, easing inflation, and structural reforms that have strengthened investor confidence. When macro stability aligns with globally ranked safety and mature resort infrastructure, uncertainty declines, and in real estate, reduced uncertainty is often the most undervalued advantage.

Where home building is headed in 2026

U.S. total housing starts are expected to equal 1.34 million in the calendar year 2026, according to the average of the leading construction forecasters. “Total housing starts” includes both single-family and multifamily starts. 

This is the most comprehensive list of housing-start projections we’ve seen. Here’s what each forecaster predicts:

1. Erdmann’s Housing Tracker: 1.55M

2. Moody’s Analytics: 1.4M

3. Wells Fargo: 1.36M

4. TD Bank: 1.36M

5. Miami Realtors: 1.35M

6. NAHB: 1.35M

7. Fannie Mae: 1.32M

8. MBA: 1.31M

9. Hunter Housing Economics: 1.28M

10. Zonda: 1.28M

11. Yale School of Management: 1.25M

12. Goldman Sachs: 1.22M

On average, U.S. total housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.38 million in 2025. Using that baseline, the 2026 consensus forecast implies a –2.9% year-over-year decline.

Our take

The consensus view on housing starts in 2026 points to an industry in wait-and-see mode, not expansion. With total starts projected slightly below 2025 levels, builders remain constrained by higher capital costs, affordability pressures, and multifamily uncertainty, favoring balance-sheet discipline over growth. For agents, this means inventory constraints aren’t easing in 2026: new construction won’t meaningfully relieve supply, making expectation-setting and pricing discipline critical.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cuts

• Why banning big investor landlords won’t fix the housing affordability crisis

• The creditor score you need for a 0% down payment loan

• What agents should do right now to build momentum before the spring season

• The 10 best markets for first-time buyers in 2026

• Google co-founder Larry Page just bought two Miami homes for $173M 

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

Most agents are still thinking like employees. The best ones? They’re thinking like CEOs.

That’s one of the main takeaways from the conversation we just had on Rise Above The Ranks with Clayton Collins, CEO of HousingWire and one of the most influential voices in housing and mortgage media. We talked about technology, how the industry is changing, what’s separating top performers from everyone else, and why now is the time to take full ownership of your business. 

Here’s a breakdown of what we cover and some of the key insights.

1. The housing industry is moving beyond silos –  Make no mistake about it: the industry is converging. Agents, lenders, servicers, and capital markets are no longer operating in silos. Technology and consumer expectations are forcing the transaction to become more unified, requiring professionals to think beyond narrow roles. Success increasingly belongs to those who understand the full housing ecosystem and can guide clients through it with confidence and clarity.

2. Technology is raising the bar, not replacing the best – Rather than eliminating top performers, technology – especially AI – is accelerating efficiency and separating the best from the rest. As routine operational work is automated, experienced agents and lenders can spend more time advising clients, building relationships, and solving real-world problems. This shift gives those with better systems and stronger judgment a clear competitive advantage.

3. You’re the boss: act like one – Agents need to view themselves as CEOs of their own business. That means resisting emotional, headline-driven decisions and not overreacting to market noise. The best agents stay informed, think things through, and then act decisively without falling into knee-jerk reactions or overthinking every move.

4. Prepare for the next market opportunity, not the last one – There’s a lot of pent-up demand sitting on the sidelines right now. Buyers are waiting, watching, and planning their next move. Clayton’s point is simple but powerful: the agents who used the slower market to tighten up their systems, improve communication, and invest in their business are going to be the ones who win when confidence and activity return.

Clayton gave us a lot to think about and a clear, grounded view of where the industry is headed. If you’re serious about building a durable business and thinking a few steps ahead, this is a conversation worth your time. Watch or listen to the full episode here. 

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

"Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution."  – Attributed to Aristotle

Thanks for reading, friends. Be intentional with your time and what you do because excellence doesn’t just happen. It takes focus, practice, and effort.

Have a wonderful weekend, and we’ll see you back here on Tuesday!

- James and David