Slowest summer home sale pace in 10 years

Strange market

As you’ll see below, the share of listings with price cuts has climbed to its highest level in recent years, an unmistakable signal that sellers are adjusting expectations.

Then again, it’s not exactly a buyer’s paradise. Mortgage rates remain stubbornly elevated, and new listings dropped to their lowest level since March.

The result is a strange market. Buyers have more negotiating power, but with shrinking new supply, prices are starting to rise again. 

In today’s newsletter, we will give you our advice on how agents should approach this market, and what opportunities are out there despite all the uncertainty!

With that, let’s get into today’s Blueprint.

- James and David

Homes are selling at slowest summer pace in a decade

In July, homes sat on the market for an average of 43 days, up from 35 days in July 2022, marking the slowest July pace since 2015. That’s according to Redfin’s latest market update. Here are the other key data points from July: 

• Pending sales fell 1.1% month over month to the lowest seasonally-adjusted level since November 2023.

• Existing-home sales dropped to an annualized rate of 4.15 million, the weakest pace in nearly a year.

• Active listings remained close to their highest level in five years, but they did fall 1.1% from June, the largest monthly seasonally-adjusted drop in roughly two years. 

• New listings dipped 0.4% month-over-month to the lowest level since March.

• The median sale price hit $443,867, up 1.4% year over year, the highest July on record. By contrast, prices rose 0.9% in June and 0.7% in May, a sharp turnaround from shrinking growth at the start of the year.

Our take

High costs and economic uncertainty are keeping buyers on the sidelines, especially since many sellers are watching neighbors’ listings sit or sell below asking. As we said up top, that mix is creating a strange market: on one hand, buyers face more choice and more negotiating power; on the other, shrinking new supply is starting to push prices higher again. For agents, this is a pricing-and-positioning market. Sellers need to be realistic and competitive to attract buyers, while buyers should use their leverage now before supply tightens and shifts momentum back to sellers.

Markets with the highest share of listings with a price cut

Recently, ResiClub analyzed the share of homes on Zillow with a price cut to identify which metro areas might offer buyers the most opportunity right now. The analysis confirms that, ever since mortgage rates spiked and the Pandemic housing boom deflated, the housing market has tilted toward buyers.

In fact, this June marked the highest share of listings (25.6%) with a price cut on a national basis since 2018. For perspective, here’s a chart of the past eight Junes:

Here are the top 10 markets with the highest share of for-sale listings with a price cut:

1. Denver, CO: 36.8%

2. Phoenix, AZ: 36.6%

3. Raleigh, NC: 35.2%

4. Tampa, FL: 34.9%

5. Dallas, TX: 33.8%

6. Nashville, TN: 33.6%

7. Salt Lake City, UT: 33.5%

8. Jacksonville, FL: 32.5%

9. Austin, TX: 31.2%

10. San Antonio, TX: 30.5%

Our take

The slower selling times we highlighted in Story 1 are also showing up as price cuts, especially in overheated pandemic boom markets. More than one in four listings nationally saw a reduction in June — the steepest level in years. Denver, Phoenix, and much of Texas are leading the way, where affordability challenges and weaker demand are forcing sellers to reset expectations. For buyers, this translates to more leverage and greater room for negotiation. For agents, the playbook is clear: price homes competitively from the start and act quickly with buyers in markets where price cuts signal softening demand.

States with the highest foreclosure rates

In July, foreclosure activity climbed again with 36,128 properties receiving filings including default notices, scheduled auctions, or bank repossessions. One in every 3,939 housing units faced a foreclosure filing. That’s up 11% from June and 13% from a year earlier. 

Early-stage activity drove most of the increase, with 24,302 properties entering the foreclosure process in July (up 12% month-over-month). Completed foreclosures held steady at 3,866 — slightly below June, but still 18% higher than last year.

Here are the states with the highest foreclosure rates:

1. Nevada

2. Florida

3. Maryland

4. South Carolina

5. Illinois

6. Indiana

7. Delaware

8. Texas

9. Ohio

10. New Jersey

Our take

This trend shows more homeowners are slipping behind, but banks aren’t yet moving aggressively to seize properties. Nevada and Florida stand out as hotspots, highlighting how affordability pressures and higher costs are straining regional markets. We’ll be blunt about it — this trend is an opportunity for agents. Many distressed owners want to sell quickly before repossession. That opens the door to secure pre-foreclosure and short-sale listings, while also connecting cash buyers and investors with properties that might not otherwise hit the market.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• Warren Buffett bets big on homebuilders

• The truth behind the “87% of Agents Fail” Stat

• States where residents see the biggest tax benefit from the ‘big beautiful bill’

• The Instagram template that gets more eyes on your listings

• How the deal for Kanye West’s former Malibu mansion fell apart

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

Lead generation is the lifeblood of every real estate business. Without a consistent flow of new prospects, even the best agents eventually hit a ceiling. That’s why agents must make lead generation a daily discipline. 

Over the next few editions, we are doing a deep dive into the process. In addition to the tips we detailed on Friday, here are four more tips to help you simplify and systematize your approach.

1. Have a clear vision of who you are prospecting – Before you can start making calls, you need clarity on who you’re targeting. Are you focusing on your sphere of influence, expired listings, FSBOs, circle dialing, or old internet leads? Each group requires a different script and strategy, so defining your “who” ensures your efforts are focused and intentional. Without this, you risk wasting time on vague outreach that rarely produces results.

2. Prioritize lead generation by putting it on your calendar – If it’s not on your calendar, it doesn’t happen. Blocking out daily or weekly windows dedicated solely to lead generation is non-negotiable. This commitment not only creates consistency but also eliminates the temptation to get distracted by non-income-producing activities. Treat your prospecting time as sacred—just like an appointment with a client.

3. Prepare in advance – Great lead generation is about preparation, not improvisation or thinking on the fly. Know what scripts you’ll use, anticipate the objections you’re likely to hear, and practice your delivery so that your confidence comes through. Lazy follow-ups like “just checking in” won’t cut it. Your outreach should always be purposeful, value-driven, and backed by a clear message. Plus, you’ll be surprised: the better you prepare, the better you’ll think on your feet. 

4. Build in accountability – Lead generation is easier to skip when no one is watching. That’s why accountability is crucial. Whether it’s a peer, a coach, or even a family member, find someone to report your numbers to consistently. Having to own up to your results—good or bad—creates the pressure needed to stay consistent and hit your goals.

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Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Just because you are doing a lot more doesn't mean you are getting a lot done. Don't confuse movement with progress!” – Denzel Washington

Progress isn’t about doing more, it’s about doing what matters most. Be intentional and focused in what you choose to do, friends. That’s how you build the business and life you want.

- James and David