Red flag in the latest market data

Push and pull

We are always playing close attention to data which can help us read typical buyer and seller behavior, and right now, those trends are moving in divergent directions.

In today’s first story, we look at the buyer’s side, and the rise in mortgage applications. While that hasn’t moved in step with a rise in pending sales (yet), as it usually does, it is a signal that more buyers may be getting ready to jump into the market.

Meanwhile, in today’s second story, we report on sellers pulling back. There has been a notable rise in delistings, which means sellers are choosing to wait until they get the price they want.

What does this mean for agents? It’s so important to manage proper expectations, both with your clients, and in your business. The more current data we have, the better we can all understand how the market is behaving, and how we should approach it.

Let’s dig into all that data now in this edition of The Blueprint.

- James and David

Mortgage applications spike as mortgage rates hit 3-month low

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 9% for the week and were 25% higher than the same week one year ago, according to the latest report of the Mortgage Bankers Association via CNBC. Here’s what the business network reports:

• The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances dropped from 6.79% to 6.77%.

• Applications to refinance a home loan rose 9% for the week and were 56% higher than the same week one year ago.

• Pending sales last week – 66,967 total – were down 1.5% compared to the same week last year, when pending sales totaled 67,986

Our take

Purchase mortgage demand usually tracks closely with home sales, but not in today’s market. Consumer sentiment is shaky, and contract cancellations remain high for both new and existing homes. So far, pending sales haven’t moved in step with rising mortgage demand. Still, the surge in applications is a strong signal that buyers are watching rates and will be ready to act when the math works. If you’ve got cold leads, now’s the time to re-engage. They may be more rate-sensitive than price-sensitive, and this dip could be the opening they’ve been waiting for.

Delistings surge is red flag

In May, delistings jumped 47% nationally compared to a year ago, a sign that many sellers would rather wait for the price they want than negotiate. That’s according to realtor.com. For reference, delisting data is reported with a one-month lag in order to determine whether a delisted home was actually sold or truly delisted.

Here are the key takeaways:

• Year to date, delistings are up 35% from the same period in 2024.

• For every 100 homes listed in May, 13 were delisted. That was up from 10 in 2024 and 2023, and 6 in 2022.

• In raw numbers, Miami, Phoenix, and Houston had the most delistings. Meanwhile, Phoenix, Miami, and Riverside, CA had the highest ratio of delistings to new listings.

Our take

Any time delistings outpace new listings, it's a red flag for agents. Sellers are hitting pause, choosing to wait out the market rather than adjust their price expectations. That means more listing appointments may not turn into active inventory or closings. Use this moment to reset expectations and fine-tune your pricing strategy. In a market where buyers are selective and listings are lingering, accurate pricing isn’t just helpful, it’s essential.

States with the highest share of equity-rich properties

46.2% of mortgaged residential properties were considered “equity-rich” in Q1 2025, down from 47.7% in Q4 2024, but still historically high, according to ATTOM. A mortgage is deemed equity-rich when the loan balance is no more than 50% of the property's estimated market value. 

Six of the top 10 states with the highest share of equity-rich homes were in the Northeast, while the remaining four were in the West. Here is the top 10:

1. Vermont: 85.5%

2. New Hampshire: 60.5%

3. Rhode Island: 59.8%

4. Montana: 59.4%

5. Maine: 58.9%

6. Hawaii: 58.4%

7. California: 57.4%

8. Massachusetts: 55.9%

9. Idaho: 55.5%

10. New York: 54.1%

Our take

Nearly half of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage are sitting on significant equity, especially in the Northeast and West. That’s a major opportunity. High equity unlocks options: move-ups, downsizing, second homes, or cash-out refis. But many owners don’t realize what they’ve built. Agents who can help estimate and utilize equity are better positioned to win listings in a slower market. Use public value estimates, mortgage records, and amortization tools to identify likely sellers. While you’ll need the owner’s input or a title search to get exact figures, close estimates are often enough to start the conversation when you’re farming a neighborhood or prospecting equity-rich homeowners.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• Pulte’s VantageScore bombshell sends the mortgage industry scrambling

• Real estate shifts you need to be following, according to Serhant

• This is now the worst housing market in America

• Agents: stop wasting time on these real estate mistakes

• See who’s betting big on LA’s new real estate landscape

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

As we mentioned last week, midyear is the perfect time to pause, assess, and reset. What you do now will shape how you finish the year and launch into 2026. In the coming editions, we’ll share practical strategies to help you finish strong. You can read Parts 1 and 2 here and here. Today, we’re walking you through how to build a clear, actionable business plan. Here are five essentials to keep in mind:

Create specific financial goals – What exactly is your financial goal as an agent? Is it to replace your income? Supplement a spouse’s income? Or are you aiming to become fabulously wealthy? Whatever the goal, you need to calculate exactly how much income it will take to get you there.

For example, if you want to net $100,000 this year, then calculate your costs:

• Gross commission income (GCI): $100,000 

• Lead generation & marketing costs: -$5,000

• Brokerage fees: -$10,000

• Miscellaneous expenses: -$2500

• Total expenses: -$17,500

• Net commission income (NCI): $82,500

• So, the GCI required to earn $100,000: $117,500

Don’t be afraid to think big, but be ruthlessly intentional and specific about it! Know the price you have to pay to get what you want. 

Create SMART goals – This stands for goals that are Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound. Every goal in your business plan should meet this standard—from annual production to daily calls.

For example, if your goal is to hit $100,000 this year, write down your S.M.A.R.T. action plan. Something like this:

• “I will save $50,000 in reserves, based on a target of $10,000/month for five months. I will reach this goal by [insert date] by increasing my closings by one per month, with an average net commission of $10,000.”

Put it in writing and keep it visible – Limit your business plan to one page and post it where you’ll see it every day. Out of sight = out of mind. Review it weekly. Say no to anything that doesn’t align with it. Focus your time and energy accordingly.

Make Revenue-Generating Activities Non-Negotiable– After you’ve determined your goals and written out exactly what your action plan is, execute! Don’t procrastinate or put it off. Don’t wait till Friday. Consistent action equals consistent income. Don’t negotiate with your success. If you say things like:

• “I can’t make calls today because my list isn’t ready.”

• “I’ll do it later when I have a longer block of time.”

• “They’ll call me when they’re ready.”

…you’re negotiating with your own success!

The key is simple: Treat revenue-generating activities as non-negotiable. They are never optional.

Build in accountability – Tell someone you trust your goals. Write them down. Share them with your coach, manager, or colleague. We do it too—our team meets every Monday to hold each other accountable. It works.

Bottom line: A strong finish to the year begins with a strong plan, one that you see, follow, and own. Don’t leave it to chance. For more advice, read this excellent post from fellow agents Tim and Julie Harris. Their work inspired our own thoughts on the matter.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.”— Steve Jobs

Have a great weekend, friends! Every day is a gift—a fresh chance to create the life you truly want. Take time this weekend to reflect, reset, and commit to living with integrity—on your own terms, and in a way you can be proud of.

- James and David