Record price cuts hit the market

The homestretch

We hope you had a great Thanksgiving!

Now that we’ve entered the homestretch of 2025, we want to help you end the year on a strong note, and more importantly, begin the new year on an even stronger note.

As usual, we’ll keep you posted on all the latest projections as we head into 2026, including a good one below from Zillow, which has reversed its prediction for home price growth.

We’ll also give you a refresher on all our favorite tips to make sure you hit the ground running when the New Year arrives.

With that, let’s hit the ground running on this Tuesday edition of The Blueprint!

- James and David

Zillow revises expectations for home value growth

Zillow has released its latest 12-month forecast, projecting that home values will rise 1.5% between October 2025 and October 2026. While that’s modest growth, it’s an improvement compared to April's 12-month forecast, when Zillow predicted a -1.7% drop. 

Currently, national prices are up just 0.1% year over year, so a 1.5% gain would represent a slight acceleration. 

Here are the top 5 markets where Zillow expects the biggest increases and decreases in home values in percentage terms:

Our take

Zillow’s latest forecast reinforces a theme we’ve seen all year–the national market isn’t overheating or correcting, it’s gently rebalancing. The real action is at the regional level. In areas where construction has been strong, prices are cooling; however, in areas where supply is constrained – especially in the Northeast – values continue to climb. It’s a fractured housing market with local conditions mattering more than the national average.

Record price cuts hit the housing market

In October, 26.9% of all listings nationwide recorded a reduction. According to Zillow, the typical October listing price was reduced by $25,000, tying the largest price cut the company has ever recorded. 

Since homes are taking longer to sell, homeowners are cutting their asking prices, often multiple times. The typical individual price cut is around $10,000. Most homeowners can afford these price cuts because they have built up a lot of equity over the past 5 years. 

Here are the top 5 markets with the biggest dollar-value cumulative cuts:

1. San Jose: $70,900

2. Los Angeles: $61,000

3. San Francisco: $59,001

4. New York: $50,000

5. San Diego: $50,000

Our take

These price reductions aren’t evidence of weakness. Instead, they reflect a market adjusting to reality (finally!). With years of equity gains behind them, sellers have the flexibility to lower their list prices and still walk away ahead. This means the playing field is evening: buyers have room to negotiate, and sellers are seeing faster results, as long as they maintain realistic expectations. Rather than signaling trouble, this shift shows a market settling into a healthier, more sustainable rhythm.

Markets that are building the most homes

Housing markets in the South are driving a sizable share of the homebuilding market. According to ResiClub, while the South is home to 39% of the nation’s population, it accounts for 59.2% of all single-family permits.

Markets with heavy permitting often see resale inventory climb as builders offer incentives and pull demand away from existing homes.

Here are the top 10 metros with the highest and lowest levels of single-family housing permits authorized over the past 12 months per 1,000 residents.

Our take

People are moving to the South for a simple reason: that’s where building is allowed to happen. More supply means more affordability. The divide between high-build and low-build metros is now a defining feature of the housing market. Where construction is strong, inventory rises, and resale prices soften; where construction isn’t strong, it’s a much tighter market. The takeaway is hard to ignore: regions that want to succeed must make room, political and otherwise, to build new housing.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• The architectural innovation fueling office-to-resi conversions 

• Jimmy Burgess’s podcast recs to boost your business in 2026

• The simple letter that secured a $2.5M listing campaign 

• A step-by-step guide on how to get preapproved for a mortgage

• NYC’s largest home has sold for $52 million less than its initial asking price

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

We strongly believe in starting every year on the best foot possible. It’s hard to believe, but we are literally 30 days away from January 1, 2026!  Over the next few remaining editions in 2025, we’ll be giving you our best advice on how to hit the ground running when the new year hits. 

Whether you’re new to the business or just want a few simple refreshers to motivate and refocus yourself, here’s a quick list of foundational tips to get you started:

Don’t overthink it, take action – Don’t get us wrong. We’re huge believers in planning and goal setting. But sometimes agents spend too much time at their desks instead of out in the field. Don’t just study the business, actually engage in it! Are you having a minimum of five real estate conversations per day? Are you making connections through open houses, circle dialing, or FSBOs? Are you increasing your circle of influence by getting to know both potential sellers and buyers? That’s what grows your business the fastest.

Don’t let FOMO lead you astray – Don’t compare your success to someone else’s, especially if you’re a new agent. It’s easy to fall prey to this mentality in our social media age, but it doesn’t make any sense. If you’re just starting out, you can’t compare yourself to a 20-year veteran. Instead of focusing on others, focus on yourself and your business. Are you better than yesterday? Are you hitting your goals? If so, that’s what counts.  

Don’t ever let your pipeline go dry – Our loyal readers know we say this a lot. We recommend dedicating at least two hours each day to prospecting. It will turbo-boost your pipeline and ensure a steady flow of new opportunities. The more people you contact, the more opportunities you’re going to generate. As an agent, this is going to be your number-one job. Get to know as many potential sellers and buyers as possible and then connect them. This is what’s key to building momentum and succeeding in this business.

Don’t leave your commission unprotected – All agents need to learn how to protect their commission. Even before the new rules that took effect after the NAR settlement, clients would ask for commission discounts. That trend has only accelerated since then. It’s imperative that agents know how to set clear expectations from the start and how to explain alternatives to commission discounts. 

We’ll say more over the next few weeks. 2026 is just around the corner. Now is the time to prepare and get yourself ready!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“You’ve gotta keep control of your time, and you can’t unless you say no. You can’t let people set your agenda in life.” — Warren Buffett

With 2026 just 30 days away, we feel the force of Warren’s words today. Stay ruthlessly focused on your goals, friends. Your time is limited, and you only get one life. Make the most of it. Have a wonderful week. We’ll see you back here on Friday!

- James and David