Pending sales hit six week high

Connect with me

Friends, later this month I’ll be at the Inman Connect Conference in San Diego.

If you're attending, I'd love to meet you. Whether you want to talk about today's market, growing your business, or just introduce yourself, please come say hello. I’ll be on stage with Mary Bonnet, Noble Black, and Paige Steckling for a panel discussion.

David and I say this all the time: build relationships with other agents. Clients come and go, but the relationships you build with your peers can last an entire career.

I hope to see many of you in San Diego!

- James

Pending sales spike to a six week high

During the four weeks ending on July 5th, U.S. pending home sales totaled  337,402, rising 1.3% from a week earlier and reaching their highest level since the first half of May. That’s according to Redfin’s latest market update. 

Here’s what else they report:

• Mortgage rates briefly gave buyers some relief – The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to a six-week low of 6.43% on July 2, helping push the median monthly housing payment down to $2,598. But the relief was short-lived, with the daily rate climbing back to 6.65% as of today.

• Home prices remain near record highs – The median home sale price rose 2.2% year over year to $408,808, just below its all-time high, while the median asking price increased 2.5% to $401,029, underscoring that affordability remains a challenge.

• Fewer homeowners are listing their homes – New listings fell 2.5% from a week earlier to their lowest level since January, while active listings dipped 0.7%. The slowdown in fresh inventory comes even as pending sales begin to recover.

• Competition is holding steady – Housing supply stands at 3.4 months, still below the 4-5 months typically considered a balanced market. Homes are taking 40 days to sell—one day longer than a year ago—and 28.4% of homes sold above asking price, essentially unchanged from last year.

• Local markets continue to diverge – Pending sales rose the most in Austin (+17%), West Palm Beach (+16.6%), and Boston (+13.4%), while Houston (-12.2%) and Seattle (-10.0%) posted the largest declines. On pricing, Pittsburgh (+9.2%) led annual gains, while San Jose (-6.0%) recorded the steepest drop.

My take

Pending sales are finally showing some life, but it's too early to call this a turnaround. The recent drop in mortgage rates gave buyers a brief opening, yet rates have already moved back up. Until borrowing costs fall more consistently, or incomes catch up with home prices, expect the housing market to continue improving in fits and starts rather than staging a full recovery.

More than 10% of all homes are vacant, but only a tiny fraction are for sale

Nationwide, 14.5 million homes – roughly 1 in 10 – are sitting vacant, but fewer than 800,000 are actually listed for sale. That surprising statistic comes from LendingTree's analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, via Realtor.com.

Here are the key takeaways:

• Most vacant homes aren't available to buyers — Just 5.5% of vacant homes are listed for sale. The largest share (35.9%) falls into an "other vacant" category, including homes tied up in probate, undergoing renovations, or otherwise off the market, while 32.6% are seasonal or vacation homes.

• Vacation-home states have the highest vacancy rates — Maine leads at 20.6%, followed by Vermont (19.4%) and Alaska (17.6%). Their high vacancy rates are driven largely by second-home ownership, not an oversupply of housing.

• Connecticut has the lowest vacancy rate, at 7.0% — just below Washington (7.3%). California, New Jersey, and Oregon tie for third-lowest at 7.5%.

• Florida has more vacant homes than any other state — About 1.5 million homes are vacant, representing a 14.7% vacancy rate. Texas and California also have high totals, though largely because they have much larger housing stocks.

My take

It's easy to look at 14.5 million vacant homes and conclude there's no housing shortage. But this report shows why that conclusion is misleading. A vacant home isn't necessarily an available home. Many are vacation properties, between tenants, tied up in probate, or undergoing repairs. For buyers, what matters isn't how many homes are empty, but how many are actually on the market. That's why inventory remains constrained in many areas despite the nation's seemingly large number of vacant homes.

What today's sellers actually expect from their agent

If you want to win more listings this year, start by understanding what sellers are actually thinking. Zillow's new seller research report - based on surveys of 7,400+ sellers - breaks down the latest data on motivations, expectations, and behaviors. Key findings: 62% of sellers hire the first agent they contact, 75% are more likely to hire an agent who offers virtual tours and interactive floor plans, and sellers' #1 priority from their agent is accurate pricing and local market expertise. In a market where listings are the lifeblood of your business, this intel can sharpen your pitch and help you stand out. Free, data-backed, and worth 15 minutes of your time.

Markets where luxury homes cost 9x more than the typical home

In the U.S., the typical luxury home sells for 3.6 times the price of a typical non-luxury home, nearly unchanged from 3.5 times a year ago. But that gap varies dramatically by market, with South Florida standing in a league of its own.

For example, West Palm Beach has the nation's largest luxury price premium, with the typical luxury home selling for $4.5 million, or 8.9 times the price of a typical non-luxury home. By contrast, Portland, OR has the smallest luxury price premium, at just 2.6 times the price of a typical non-luxury home.

Here are the top 5 markets with the biggest and smallest luxury price premiums:

My take

The real story isn't just the ratio; it's how quickly it's changing. In only one year, Miami's luxury premium jumped from 7.6x to 8.8x, showing that the high end is pulling away from the rest of the market. That's another sign that South Florida continues to attract affluent buyers even as higher mortgage rates keep many traditional buyers on the sidelines. The luxury market is playing by a different set of rules, and the widening gap reflects that.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cuts

• Do this if your listing has gone stale

• High mortgage rates are secretly boosting profits for short term rentals

• Ranked: best open house apps to get more leads

• The housing market has a new problem: everyone feels broke

• This recruiting funnel helped one team add 30 agents in 100 days

Foundation Plans

Advice from James to win the day

Today we continue with part two of our primer on the essentials that every agent needs to know when considering a brokerage. 

Training and/or career development programs – Most brokerages offer a variety of training programs, but it's important to do your research. Getting a real estate license does not teach agents how to “do real estate.” Sure, they’ll learn about all the laws and state regulations… but can they fill out a purchase agreement? Do they know how to run a market analysis? How to work the MLS? How to market and advertise their properties? This is why training programs are essential, and it’s equally essential that brokerages offer them. 

Marketing tools and technology – In many brokerages, these are 100% company-paid, but some firms require agents to pay a la carte for what they use. Each brokerage brand has its own policies, so make sure to ask. Most MLSs and Realtor associations also offer some level of technology for their members. Tools provided by a brokerage can include customer relationship management (CRM) programs with features such as geo farming, automated emails, text follow-up tools, digital marketing materials on demand, personalized websites, online and in-person training and coaching, transaction management tools, forms library, post-closing follow-up programs, and more. 

The brokerage’s reputation – Make sure you associate yourself with a brokerage that has a good reputation. If they’re a franchise, how much name recognition do they offer? How are they known for treating their agents? If they’re an independent brokerage, how well-known are they within the community? What’s their market share? Use Real Trends to research how well they rank and how successful they are. 

Mentorship programs – Some brokerages often pair rookie agents with seasoned agents as mentors. Make sure you ask whether the brokerage you are considering has such a program, and be sure to ask these questions: How many days or hours of formal training is involved? Is there a cost for this service? If so, how much? Is the mentor easily and readily available to you? What other "hats" does that person wear? What is the mentor expecting from you?

As you can see, choosing a brokerage is obviously an important and complex decision. The relationship between an agent and a brokerage has many different facets, so it’s important to research and understand them all. For more resources on this topic, start here and here.  

Breezy

Feature of the Week — Note Taker

Breezy is actually the official notetaking app of Inman Connect San Diego.

It will help you make the most of every session, conversation, and connection. It captures every conversation — automatically.

Let Breezy handle your notes so you can stay focused on learning and networking.

Get it here!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.” — Steve Jobs

Each day is a gift – a chance to live the life you want. Ruthlessly focus on your goals. Don’t let your past or the fear of being judged distract or paralyze you. Choose to live with an integrity that you can be proud of.

Have a wonderful weekend, and I’ll see you back here next Friday!

- James