Moody’s long-long-long-term market prediction

Smoother seas ahead?

When you read the stories below, you’ll spot a theme–after years of market turbulence, signs are pointing toward a period of stability.

In fact, if you want to look into the future, our first story does just that. Moody’s has given us a housing forecast that goes all the way into 2035!

While we know that forecasts aren’t guarantees of anything, the latest market data shows that the wild swings of 2008 and 2021 are not in the immediate future… or even the very, very distant future.

Overall, it seems like the rough waters and big ups-and-downs may be behind us.

But what’s ahead of us… is this Friday edition of The Blueprint!

- James and David

Moody’s forecast for the housing prices to 2035!

After years of historic volatility, the housing market may be entering a long stretch of calm. Moody’s Analytics, led by Chief Economist Mark Zandi, projects via ResiClub that home prices will rise slowly through 2035, keeping pace with inflation, but delivering little in the way of real gains. The result is a market that will stabilize, rather than boom or bust, signaling a new era of gradual adjustment. 

Here are the key takeaways from the forecast. 

• A Decade of Flat Real Prices – Moody’s expects nominal home prices to rise 23.5% between 2025 and 2035, but inflation will erase those gains, leaving no real price growth. Annual increases will hover between 0.5% and 2.8%, marking a long period of stability rather than appreciation.

• Regional Differences Persist – Markets in the South and West may see mild declines as new construction boosts supply, while Northeast and Midwest metros should hold steady thanks to tighter inventory. Local building activity will shape prices more than national averages.

• Affordability Remains the Key Constraint – High mortgage rates near 6% and labor shortages in construction continue to strain affordability. Zandi argues flat prices are needed for incomes to catch up, calling this the healthiest path forward for long-term stability.

• A Market Reset, Not a Crash – Moody’s expects a slow recalibration rather than a 2008-style collapse. Lending standards remain solid and inventory low, setting the stage for gradual normalization as housing fundamentals and affordability realign.

Our take

Our loyal readers know that we always say to take long-term forecasts with a grain of salt. Well, this is a long-long-long-term forecast! But thinking long-term is still a valuable exercise. It helps us focus on the trends that matter now, and think about what they might mean for the future. We believe the takeaway here is clear: while we’re not headed for another 2008-type crash, we’re also not headed for a 2021-type boom. The market is settling into something steadier and more sustainable. We can likely expect smoother seas ahead.

The current state of home sale profits

Homeowners earned an average of 49.9% profit on typical single-family home and condo sales in Q3, up slightly from 49.3% in Q2, but below the 55.4% margin recorded a year earlier, according to ATTOM’s latest report.

Before the pandemic, sellers typically saw profits of around 30%. When the pandemic triggered a wave of relocations and surging demand for larger homes, margins doubled to over 60% by mid-2022. Since then, profits have gradually settled just below 50%, holding steady for the past three quarters, a sign that the post-pandemic correction may be stabilizing.

Here are the top 5 markets where quarter-over-quarter profit margins fell and rose the most in Q3:

Our take

Home-sale profits may no longer be breaking records, but they remain impressively strong given today’s slower market. Margins hovering near 50% show that even as most housing markets tilt toward buyers, sellers can still walk away with substantial gains. That gives agents an important talking point–it’s still possible to sell profitably if pricing and marketing are handled strategically. The market’s message is clear. After years of turbulence, housing is entering a more balanced phase where smart sellers can still win.

California and Colorado lead September’s most expensive home sales

Luxury home sales in September were dominated by high-end estates in California and Colorado. Topping the list was the Green Gables estate in the Bay Area, a 74-acre property with seven homes that sold for $85 million, followed by a $58.3 million Aspen residence, and a $55 million Montecito sale that included an estate once owned by Ellen DeGeneres and Portia de Rossi. 

In total, California accounted for four of the month’s top ten transactions, while three were in Colorado ski towns. The remaining top deals were in New York and Palm Beach, with all ten properties selling for more than $30 million.

Here are the most expensive home sales in the country in September:

1. 329 Albion Ave., Woodside, CA 94062: Sold for $85 million 

2. 210 S. West End St., Aspen, CO 81611: Sold for $58.3 million

3. 319 San Ysidro Rd. & 289 San Ysidro Rd., Montecito, CA 93108: Sold for $55 million

4. 6026 Camino De La Costa, La Jolla, CA 92037: Sold for $47 million

5. 11740 Crescenda St., Los Angeles, CA 90049: Sold for $44 million 

6. 395 E. Reds Rd., Aspen, CO 81611: Sold for $37.8 million 

7. 1214 N. Ocean Blvd., Palm Beach, FL 33480: Sold for $37 million

8. 825 5th Ave. Unit 15 FLR, New York City, NY 10065: Sold for $33.7 million

9. 344 Beaver Dam Rd., Vail, CO 81657: Sold for $32.2 million

10. 33 Lily Pond Ln., East Hampton, NY 11937: Sold for $31.5 million

Our take

September’s sales show that luxury demand remains strongest in established wealth corridors rather than new markets. California continues to anchor the ultra-luxury segment with trophy estates and legacy properties, while Colorado’s ski towns reinforce their status as year-round luxury destinations. The dominance of these two states underscores how lifestyle, exclusivity, and limited supply are driving top-tier pricing even as broader housing activity cools. For agents, the takeaway is clear: the high end is still moving, but it’s concentrated in markets where prestige and privacy command a premium.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• The money skills most agents never learn

• Get to know Offa – the new listings network for wholesalers and buyers 

• Real brokerage expands fintech edge with same-day built-in agent loans

• The home paint color that represents the epitome of quiet luxury

• How golf is turning luxury mountain living on its head

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

In our latest episode of Rise Above the Ranks, we sit down with Clayton Collins, the CEO of HousingWire, to uncover the story behind one of real estate’s most influential media companies. Clayton shares how HousingWire began, how technology transformed the industry, and the strategies he used to stay ahead in an ever-changing digital landscape. 

If you’re passionate about growth, leadership, and innovation in real estate, this conversation is a must-watch. Here are some of the themes we talk about in this episode: 

1. Technology is reshaping every part of the real estate transaction – Clayton explains how the past few years have accelerated a long-running trend: the integration of technology across every step of buying and selling a home. Consumers now expect seamless coordination between agents, lenders, appraisers, and inspectors—just as they do in other digital experiences. The companies that meet those expectations are creating more efficient, data-driven transactions and setting a new standard for the industry.

2. Efficiency and experience will separate the top performers from the rest – As technology reduces manual tasks, agents and lenders who focus on relationships and advice will rise to the top. Those who master their tools and streamline their workflows will be able to do more deals, offer better service, and build stronger client trust. Clayton sees this “cream-rising-to-the-top” effect as the next major wave of consolidation in real estate.

3. AI isn’t replacing agents; it’s replacing inefficiency – The latest wave of AI is automating the back-end work that used to slow agents and lenders down, from underwriting to transaction management. The result is a shift in focus: professionals can spend more time on strategy, client interaction, and growth. Clayton emphasizes that those who learn to harness AI early will have a measurable advantage in both productivity and opportunity.

4. Adaptability is now the defining skill of top professionals – Both James and Clayton stress that agents who resist technology risk being left behind, just as some were when the internet first emerged. The market rewards those who learn, adopt, and evolve faster than their peers. In an age where time and efficiency can’t be bought, mastering new tools isn’t optional—it’s the path to staying relevant and building long-term success.

Watch the whole conversation here!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“You’ve gotta keep control of your time, and you can’t unless you say no. You can’t let people set your agenda in life.” — Warren Buffett

Don’t let events or other people set your agenda. Stay ruthlessly focused on your goals — your time is limited, and you only get one life. Make the most of it.

Have a wonderful weekend. We’ll see you back here on Tuesday!

- James and David