Market “spooked” by Fed’s uncertainty

Welcome to… the Boo-print!

That’s right… It’s our Halloween-themed edition.

Today, we’re starting with this age-old question: trick or treat? 

That’s not just what we’ll be hearing on doorsteps around the country tonight, but what we’re also hearing following the Fed’s announcement. 

Despite the Fed’s interest rate cut, mortgage rates rose due to the uncertainty about future rate moves in December.

We’ll break down the big takeaways and the fallout from this week.

Now let’s scare up… some headlines!

- James and David

Market spooked by Fed’s uncertainty

Mortgage rates spiked yesterday, even though the Fed cut interest rates as expected. The average 30-year fixed rate rose from 6.13% to 6.33% on Thursday. Markets had already priced in the cut, but reacted negatively to Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious tone about future rate moves in December. Here’s a breakdown:

• Markets misread the Fed’s stance – Investors had bet heavily on a series of rate cuts through 2025, but Powell signaled uncertainty about future moves. His remarks caused a “reset” in bond yields, pushing mortgage rates higher despite the policy easing.

• Refinance activity might cool – Before the Fed meeting, lower rates had fueled a 111% year-over-year jump in refinance applications, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. However, that surge could stall if borrowing costs remain elevated through November.

• Homebuyer demand still soft – Even as rates briefly dipped earlier this week, purchase applications stayed flat. High prices and limited supply continue to suppress buyer activity, suggesting rate cuts alone won’t reignite housing demand.

Our take

The market wanted reassurance that more rate cuts were coming. That hint of uncertainty didn’t just send mortgage rates higher, it reminded us how sensitive housing costs are to market sentiment, not just Fed policy. For agents, this means rate volatility will likely continue through the end of the year. Focus on helping clients lock favorable terms quickly and base decisions on long-term affordability, not short-term rate swings.

Luxury home prices keep creeping up

Luxury home prices hit a record high in September, rising 4.8% year over year to $1.26 million, more than double the growth rate of non-luxury homes (1.8%). Since last year, luxury prices have climbed roughly 11%.

Redfin’s latest report shows that the luxury sector continues to outperform the broader housing market in price growth, resilience, and long-term buyer confidence. Here’s more data on these trends:

• Sales have steadied near decade lows – Luxury sales were flat year over year, with pending sales up slightly. The market appears to have found a floor, but overall activity remains historically low.

• Inventory is rising, but still tight – Luxury listings grew 7.7% from a year ago, the highest since 2020, while non-luxury listings rose 11.4%. Yet luxury supply remains about 50% below pre-pandemic levels, keeping prices firm.

• Sale and price trends differ sharply across metros – Luxury prices surged in West Palm Beach, Newark, and Virginia Beach, but fell in Tampa and Oakland. San Francisco and Fort Worth saw the biggest sales gains, while Miami and West Palm Beach had the slowest sales pace.

Our take

Luxury real estate is quietly leading the housing recovery. Even with high mortgage rates, wealthy buyers are driving steady demand while middle-income buyers sit on the sidelines. This split shows a market increasingly shaped by cash and confidence rather than credit. Agents should lean into that divide—marketing luxury listings as scarce, resilient assets and watching for when pent-up non-luxury demand finally returns.

More than 40% of homeowners aren’t haunted by mortgages

A record 40.3% of homeowners own their homes outright, up from 32.8% in 2010, reflecting a steady rise in mortgage-free ownership, according to ResiClub’s analysis via the NY Post.

Over half of the nation’s 35 million mortgage-free owners are 65 or older, and nearly two-thirds own their homes free and clear. Regions with older populations and lower home values (like Texas and parts of the South and Midwest) report the highest rates, while high-cost metros (like Denver and Washington D.C.) rank lowest. 

Analysts expect the trend to fuel growth in equity-based products such as reverse mortgages, as more seniors seek to tap their home wealth without selling.

Here are the top 5 metros with the highest share of homeowners without mortgages:

1. McAllen, TX – 61.8%

2. Brownsville, TX – 57.8%

3. Beaumont, TX – 57.7%

4. Kingsport, TN – 56.2%

5. Longview, TX – 55.8%

Our take

This is a powerful reminder that demographics, not just prices or rates, shape the housing market. For agents, this means more listings will come from equity-rich, older sellers rather than younger move-up buyers. Expect to see a growing emphasis on “aging in place,” reverse mortgages, and cash-driven purchases. Agents should target downsizing sellers or retirees looking to tap equity while staying local.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• 52% of all buyers would live in a haunted house if the price was righ

• Home elevators are becoming standard in modern design 

• Holiday strategies that drive referrals all year

• Renters are conning their way into luxury apartments

• AI tools that will save agents hours every week

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

In today’s scary-good episode of Rise Above the Ranks, we sit down with industry powerhouse Chris Heller, former CEO of Keller Williams and current Chief Real Estate Officer at OJO Labs. 

The conversation examines how agents and brokerages can remain competitive in a market characterized by speed, innovation, and data. It’s a candid look at the habits and mindsets needed to thrive in a rapidly changing landscape. 

Here’s a taste of what we discuss in the episode: 

1. Consumers move faster than ever – Chris notes that buyers and sellers now expect instant results and seamless digital experiences. Technology is setting new service standards across industries, forcing agents to move at the same pace. Those who fail to meet modern expectations will quickly fall behind.

2. Brokerages face immense pressure – With margins shrinking and agents reluctant to use in-house tools, many brokerages are struggling to stay efficient. Chris says teams are outperforming because they’re leaner, more focused, and more accountable. To compete, brokerages must rethink how they deliver value and streamline operations.

3. AI is the great equalizer – Artificial intelligence can boost productivity, automate support, and improve agent responsiveness. From lead follow-up to 24/7 virtual broker services, Chris sees AI as key to survival. The challenge is knowing which tools to adopt and integrating them early.

4. You must adapt if you want to succeed – Chris attributes his rise from top agent to industry leader to a focus on results, not titles. He consistently embraced new challenges — from expanding Keller Williams abroad to advancing real estate tech. His message: growth comes from staying curious, adaptable, and forward-thinking.

Listen to the entire episode here. Drop us a line with your thoughts! 

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“You’ve gotta keep control of your time, and you can’t unless you say no. You can’t let people set your agenda in life.” — Warren Buffett

Don’t let events or other people set your agenda. Stay ruthlessly focused on your goals — your time is limited, and you only get one life. Make the most of it.

Have a wonderful Halloween weekend, friends. We’ll see you back here on Tuesday!

- James and David