Huge drop in existing home sales

The importance of mindset

We will admit right up top–there isn’t exactly a lot of positive news in this edition. We’re in a cautious market right now. Many buyers are skittish due to the surrounding economic uncertainty.

However, we have said time and time again that while we can’t control the market, we can control our mindset.

In our latest episode of our podcast, Rise Above the Ranks, we discuss the mindset we had when we arrived in this country, and how it helped us work our way up from virtually nothing. If you want a preview of what we discuss, scroll down to today’s Foundation Plans.

We hope you find our advice, and our story, inspiring. We think it is a good reminder that great success starts with a great mindset.

- James and David

Existing home sales plummeted in March

Sales of previously owned homes in March fell 5.9% from February to 4.02 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to NAR via CNBC. That’s the slowest March sales pace since 2009. Here are the main takeaways from March:

• Sales were down 2.4% YOY. While they slumped across all regions month to month, sales fell hardest in the West (-9% MOM), the priciest region of the country.

• Sales fell despite a sharp increase in available listings. At the end of March, there were 1.33 million units for sale, up nearly 20% YOY.

• At the current sales price, there is a 4-month supply of available listings. Typically, a 6-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyer and seller.

• Increased inventory has been slowing the rate of price growth. Currently, median prices are up 2.7% YOY, one of the slowest price increases since the pandemic.

• First-time buyers made up 32% of the market, the same as in March 2024. Historically, they make up roughly 40%.

• All-cash sales dropped year-over-year from 28% to 26%, but investors held steady at 15% of sales.

Our take

Inventory is finally loosening, but buyers aren’t biting… at least, not yet. Elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty continue to curb demand, even as listings rise and price growth cools. For agents, this is a moment to show hesitant buyers that more options and less competition can mean better deals. On the seller side, managing expectations is key. This isn't 2021, but it’s not a crash either. It’s a shifting market, and the agents who guide clients with clarity and strategy will win.

Markets where home prices are falling the fastest

Nationwide, home prices rose 2.1% year over year, the slowest growth rate since July 2023, according to Redfin. During the four weeks ending April 20th, the median home-sale price declined year-over-year in 11 of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas. The last time that many markets saw annual price declines was in September 2023.

Here are the top five metros with the largest year-over-year price increases and decreases:

Our take

Of course, prices rise in some markets and fall in others, but what stands out here is that declines are showing up in major metros like San Antonio and Phoenix, and not just out-of-the-way areas. Nationally, price growth is slowing as many buyers step back, even with inventory holding steady. Home tours and mortgage applications are down, and pending sales have dipped slightly year over year. Across the country, agents report buyer hesitancy driven by high costs and economic uncertainty. We’re in a cautious market. The path forward requires both persistence and strategy. There are deals to be made. See this as an opportunity to earn your clients’ trust by guiding them through the noise.

Markets where sellers are seeing the biggest profit margin increases

In Q1 2025, U.S. homeowners made an average profit of 50.2% on the sale of single-family homes and condos, according to ATTOM. That’s down from the 55% homeowners made a year ago, but still well above pre-pandemic levels. 77 of the 128 metro areas (60%) in ATTOM’s analysis, had typical sales profit margins at or above 50 percent.

Here are the metros which saw the largest year-over-year increases in profit margins in Q1:

1. Toledo, OH: 16.9% (27.8 → 44.7%)

2. Birmingham, AL: 10.2% (24.9% → 35.1%)

3. Canton, OH: 9.3% (43.8% → 53.1%)

4. Syracuse, NY: 5.5% (56.8% → 62.3%)

5. Youngstown, OH: 5.3% (64.7 → 70.0%)

Our take

This report has plenty to unpack, and we’ll revisit it in future editions. For now, the key point is that while seller profits are down slightly from their peak, margins remain historically very strong, especially considering that Q1 is typically the slowest quarter. Expect those numbers to rise heading into summer. For many homeowners, they are sitting on a valuable asset. Not only have they built up a lot of the equity, but they’re in a position to make a pretty penny when it comes time to sell. Make sure you’re using this insight in your listing pitches.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

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• Which brokerage models are winning over the best agents

• Stop overcomplicating buyer agreements: use these scripts instead

• The Superrich have turned Manalapan into the next Palm Beach

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

Our loyal readers know that when we first broke into the luxury real estate market, we had no listings, no connections, and no reputation. All we had was a sharp-looking website and a relentless drive to make it work. In our latest episode of Rise Above the Ranks, we share the mindset and strategies that helped us get to where we are today. We believe that they can help any agent achieve their goals. Here are the four pillars that have guided our journey:

Be True to Yourself – We can’t stress this enough: your brand has to reflect who you truly are. When we started, we didn’t try to copy anyone—we leaned into what made us different. If you’re more like Josh Altman, don’t try to be us. And vice versa. Clients can sniff out inauthenticity from a mile away. Your brand is your reputation, and if it’s not real, it won’t last. Build it on your strengths, your values, and your voice.

Real Estate Is a Strategy Game – This business isn’t about winging it; it’s about showing up prepared. From day one, we knew that if we couldn’t out-network others, we’d have to out-think them. We focused on teardown deals in ultra-high-end areas where data and numbers spoke louder than our résumés. Know your market inside and out. But more importantly, be strategic with that knowledge, use it to guide your clients, not overwhelm them.

Trust Is Everything – We don’t chase commissions, we chase trust. Our goal with every client isn’t just to close a deal, it’s to build a relationship that lasts. That means being honest, even when it’s hard. If something isn’t the right fit, we say so. Clients remember that. They come back. They refer their friends. Long-term success in this business is built on telling the truth and doing right by people.

Work Smart, Stay Focused, and Set Boundaries – Yes, we all work hard, but working smart is the game-changer. Use tech. Use CRMs. Delegate what you’re not great at. And whatever you’re doing, be all in. When we’re with clients, we’re with clients. No distractions. No phone. Just presence. This business can take over your life if you let it, so set boundaries, protect your energy, and stay laser-focused on what matters most.

That’s our blueprint. It’s not magic. It’s not luck. It’s clarity, commitment, and consistency. Rise above the noise, and you’ll rise above the ranks. We encourage you to listen and share the episode with your friends. We think it will have a positive effect on you and your mindset. Let us know what you think of it.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Just because you are doing a lot more doesn't mean you are getting a lot done. Don't confuse movement with progress!” – Denzel Washington

Progress isn’t about doing more, it’s about doing what matters most. Be intentional and focused in what you choose to do, friends. That’s how you build the business and life you want. Use this weekend to rest, recharge, and get ready for the week ahead.

- James and David