Home turnover rate crashes to 30-year low

Lack of movement

If your business is feeling a little slow these days, you can rest assured that you aren’t the only one experiencing that feeling.

As you’ll see below, the rate of homeowner turnover has just its lowest pace since the early-to-mid 1990s.

In today’s newsletter, we’ll give you an overview of the current state of the market, and hit the main data points which explain why we’re in this historic lull.

But as usual, we like to mix the good with the bad! In our third story, we share some (relatively) good news on zombie foreclosures, and why they’re trending in the right direction.

With that, let’s dig into this Tuesday edition of The Blueprint!

- James and David

Buyer demand slowed even as inventory rose in October

In October, homebuyers saw more options as inventory rose for the 24th consecutive month. However, despite lower mortgage rates, the pace of growth cooled and demand remained muted. Regional divides persisted, and early realtor.com data suggest the federal government shutdown briefly slowed activity in several key metros. Here’s a summary of the key trends from October: 

• Inventory growth slows – While active listings rose 15.3% year over year, extending a two-year streak of increases, this was the fifth straight month of slower growth. Inventory remains about 13% below 2017–19 norms. 

• Regional divergence narrows – The South (+17%) and West (+17.4%) continued to lead in inventory growth, though both slowed since spring. The Northeast (+8.9%) and Midwest (+12.2%) saw modest gains, helping to slightly narrow the regional gap.

• Buyer activity stays weak despite lower rates – Homes averaged 63 days on market (+5 YoY), marking the 19th consecutive month of slower sales. Pending sales slipped 1.9% YoY, and 20.2% of listings saw price cuts, showing that affordability pressures and cautious buyers continue to weigh on demand.

• Shutdown dampens activity in federal metros – Markets with high federal employment—Washington, DC, Virginia Beach, Oklahoma City, and Baltimore—saw drops in new listings (-14% in DC) and buyer search activity (-11.5%). Broader pricing and inventory trends, however, remain largely unchanged so far.

Our take

The October report shows a market losing steam. Inventory gains have slowed, homes are sitting longer, and price cuts remain widespread despite lower mortgage rates. The West and South are cooling fastest, while the Northeast and Midwest hold steadier. Still, the luxury segment and investor purchases continue to prop up overall sales and market activity, preventing a deeper slowdown.

Home turnover rate hits 30-year low

In 2025, just 28 out of every 1,000 homes have changed hands, the lowest turnover rate in more than 30 years. That 2.8% of U.S. homes selling this year is down nearly 38% from the 2021 pandemic peak and 31% below 2019 levels. Even with a slight uptick in listings, overall mobility remains far below pre-pandemic norms. Here’s what you need to know: 

• Affordability and rate lock-in keep homeowners stuck – Over 70% of mortgage owners hold rates below 5%, discouraging sales as current rates hover near 6.2%. Combined with record home prices and economic caution, both buyers and sellers are waiting for better conditions.

• Listings remain scarce despite a slight uptick – About 39 homes per 1,000 were listed for sale in 2025, an improvement over recent years, but still 25% below pre-pandemic levels. Economists say a sustained drop in mortgage rates is needed to revive turnover.

• Regional contrasts persist – Virginia Beach (35.2 per 1,000) led the nation in turnover, followed by West Palm Beach and Tampa, while New York (10.3) and Los Angeles (11.5) had the lowest. California’s sluggish movement is partly tied to Proposition 13, which discourages relocations by limiting property-tax increases.

Our take

The housing market’s biggest challenge isn’t just affordability, it’s inertia. With buyers priced out and sellers locked into low mortgage rates, the market has settled into a state of historic stillness. Even modest improvements in listings haven’t been enough to stir movement, and mobility remains frozen well below pre-pandemic norms. Until borrowing costs fall meaningfully, 2025 may be remembered as the year America simply stayed put.

Zombie foreclosures near historic lows despite market headwinds

In Q4 2025, zombie foreclosures – vacant homes caught in the foreclosure process – made up 3.25% of all foreclosures, down slightly from both the previous quarter and a year earlier. 

The total number of residential properties in foreclosure stood at 228,943, reflecting a market still adjusting to higher borrowing costs, but supported by strong homeowner equity. 

Analysts note that tighter lending standards and solid demand have helped keep zombie foreclosures near historic lows, even as overall foreclosure activity has inched up. This stability points to a housing market that remains resilient despite ongoing affordability pressures and broader economic uncertainty.

Here are the states with the highest zombie foreclosure rates.

1. Wyoming – 15.49%

2. South Dakota – 13.04%

3. Kansas – 12.35%

4. Iowa – 8.62%

5. New Mexico – 7.84%

6. Oregon – 7.07%

7. Alaska – 6.74%

8. Indiana – 6.40%

9. Ohio – 6.33%

10. Missouri – 6.28%

Our take

Even with foreclosure activity slowly ticking up, vacant “zombie” homes remain rare. This is evidence of a market still underpinned by strong equity and responsible lending. Most homeowners today have enough equity to avoid walking away, keeping distress levels far below past cycles. The persistence of low zombie rates highlights a housing market that’s cooling, but not cracking, under the weight of higher borrowing costs.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

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• How to build a 2026 social media plan that you’ll use

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• America's largest homebuilder gave 73% of its buyers a mortgage rate buydown

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

As part of our prep for 2026 series, we’d like to offer some tips on how to get creative with listing presentations. One of the methods we like using in our pitches is the case study method. It uses your past listings to demonstrate your process and to showcase your expertise, thoughtfulness, and ability as an agent. Here's how to use it:

Outline and detail your listing process – You probably already have a process for getting a home ready to list. Outline this process. Be detailed and thorough but don’t overwhelm your clients. The point is to explain to the clients what they’re getting when they hire you by demonstrating the thoughtfulness, care, and intentionality you bring to everything you do as an agent. 

Collect data and document the process – This is how you'll show prospective clients why they should choose you as their agent. Collect before-and-after photos of previous listings, client testimonials, and the list and sale prices of homes you've sold. Show them your results and the difference you made. 

Put it all together – After you've clearly outlined your listing process and compiled data, it's time to take all of this information and package it beautifully. This can be a simple flyer or brochure, or you can create a video to send to potential clients. The most important thing is to show potential clients evidence of your success as an agent and how you can do the same for them.

For more tips and strategies on creating effective presentations, explore these useful resources.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“The distance between dreams and reality is called discipline.” — Paulo Coelho

No one is coming to save you, friends. If you want your dreams to come true, you have to make them come true. It’s a hard truth, but once you accept it, you can finally start building the life you want.

We’ll see you back here on Friday! Have a great week. Truly!!

- James and David