Existing home sales surpass expectations

Don’t be quiet about it

No question, real estate is about location, but it’s just as much about relationships, timing, and sharing the right information with the right people. When you’ve got something valuable, share it – but strategically.

Today’s edition is packed with intel worth passing on. Some of it’s perfect for your clients. Some for fellow agents. And some – like our second story – is pure gold for your investor contacts.

The point is: use what you pick up to stay visible, valuable, and relevant to the people who matter most in your business. That’s what we’re here to help you do.

Now, let’s dive into today’s Blueprint!

- James and David

Existing home sales defied expectations in May

Existing home sales edged up 0.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.03 million, according to the National Association of Realtors via CNBC. That’s a surprising month-over-month gain in a market still grappling with elevated rates and cautious buyers. Here’s a breakdown of the key takeaways:

• Sales trends:

  • Nationally, sales fell 0.7% year-over-year (down from 4.06 million in May 2024).

  • Regionally, sales increased in the Northeast (+4.2%), Midwest (+2.1%), and South (+1.7%), but fell sharply in the West (–5.4%). 

• Inventory and Prices:

  • Total inventory rose to 1.54 million homes, up 6.2% from April and 20.3% year-over-year.

  • Median single-family home price: $427,800 (+1.3% YOY)

  • Median condo price: $371,300 (+0.7% YOY)

• YOY median price trends by region:

  • West: $633,500 (+7.1%)

  • Northeast: $513,300 (+3.4%)

  • South: $367,800 (+0.7%)

  • Midwest: $326,400 (+0.5%)

Our take

Existing home sales were a positive surprise, notching a small gain in May despite contracts being signed during a period of heightened uncertainty. But make no mistake — this year’s housing season is still softer than last year’s. Sales remain down year-over-year, even as total dollar volume rose 1%, driven by higher average prices. Strength is concentrated in the upper end of the market. Sales rose only in the $750K–$1M range, while $1M+ sales declined. This reflects where inventory is more available and where buyers have leverage to negotiate. Looking ahead, Zillow now projects 4.14 million existing home sales in 2025, a modest 1.9% increase over this year. Higher inventory levels are giving buyers more leverage and may help nudge sales higher as the year progresses.

States with the most seriously underwater properties

2.8% of the homes in the United States are seriously underwater as of the end of Q1 2025, according to ATTOM. That’s a 0.4% increase from the fourth quarter of 2024, but compared to the 6.6% we saw in Q1 2020, things are looking pretty stable at the national level. For reference, “seriously underwater” means the homeowner owes at least 25% more on the mortgage than the property’s market value.

Here are the states with the highest share of seriously underwater properties:

1. Louisiana: 10.5%

2. Kentucky: 7.3%

3. Mississippi: 6.6%

4. Arkansas: 5.8%

5. Iowa: 5.7%

6. Oklahoma: 5.5%

7. Illinois (tie): 4.8%

8. North Dakota (tie): 4.8%

9. Kansas (tie): 4.7%

10. Missouri (tie): 4.7%

Our take

Agents working with investors should be all over this report. As we said in our last edition, the best returns on flips often come from markets with low entry prices and plenty of room to add value. That’s exactly what this data helps identify. States like Louisiana and Kentucky, where underwater rates are high, can signal a higher concentration of financially stressed homeowners. For investors, these markets may offer opportunities to acquire properties at a discount, especially if owners are pursuing short sales or facing pressure to sell. Even if a home doesn’t go into foreclosure, some underwater owners may accept offers at, or even below, market value – if they can secure lender approval or cover the shortfall. It’s not always an easy path, but this is the kind of market intel investors can act on. So, don’t keep quiet about it.

Metros with the biggest price gains and drops

The median U.S. home-sale price hit a record high of $396,500 during the four weeks ending June 15, up 1% year-over-year, according to Redfin. But despite the new high, that figure is still $26,000 below the median asking price of $422,238, which is up 5% from a year ago, highlighting a widening gap between what sellers want and what buyers will pay. Market trends continue to diverge at the metro level. While some areas are still seeing price growth, others are already in decline. Home prices fell in 12 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros.

Here are the metros with the biggest year-over-year price gains and drops:

Our take

The growing gap between asking and sale prices marks a clear shift from the bidding wars of 2021–2022. Today, homes are selling for about 6% below asking, and buyers know they have leverage. With inventory up and demand more measured, accurate pricing is critical; even a slight overprice can stall a listing. Some metros like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are still gaining momentum, while others like Oakland and Dallas are cooling fast. That means agents must know their local numbers and adjust their strategy. There's no one-size-fits-all approach. Bottom line: In today’s price-sensitive market, homes that show well and are competitively priced are the ones that move.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• Compass is suing Zillow over private listings

• Top agents explain how they built successful revenue share downlines

• Guide to Zillow Estimates: How to use it and how accurate is it? 

• The 6% commission is a myth

• Paris Hilton just bought Mark Wahlberg’s mansion for $63M

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

In today’s edition, we continue our series on stale listings. It’s a challenge many listing agents are facing right now. In our first installment, we shared proactive strategies to help your listing stand out from day one so that it doesn’t become stale in the first place. In Parts Two and Three, we shared three actionable tips to help breathe new life into a home that has been sitting idle for a while. Today, in Part Four, we give you more tips to revive a stale listing without changing the list price.

Send a strategic reverse prospecting email – Reach out to buyer agents who’ve matched with the listing. Ask directly: What’s keeping your client from scheduling a showing? Include everything they need to set up a preview—photos, showing instructions, seller highlights, etc. If buyers and buyer agents aren’t coming to you, you reach out to them!

Market to agent-only Facebook groups –  Post your listing in local and national agent-only Facebook groups. Go beyond the MLS. Submit the home to local news outlets, real estate roundups, and digital platforms that highlight new or unique listings.

Mine your own database –  Go through each name on your list and picture them moving into your listing. Would it be a good fit for them? If so, reach out and start a conversation about whether they are thinking about making a move!

Host an invite-only open house for top brokers and buyers – Coordinate with other nearby listing agents and give away a gift card, wine, Apple Watch, or some other item of value. Invite local agents using targeted prospect lists. Think of using targeted Facebook ads, too.

There’s a theme in all our tips today: Once you’ve revamped your listing, do whatever it takes to get it in front of agents and buyers, fast and often. Sitting back isn’t an option. 

We’ll wrap up this series in Friday’s edition with a final round of tips. In the meantime, let us know what’s worked for you. Have a tactic we haven’t mentioned? Message us. We want to hear it.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

Take ownership of your life, friends. What you’re not changing, you’re choosing. Want to lose weight? Change it. Want a higher CGI? Change it. Whatever the goal, the path is the same: make the move. Decide to become the person you want to be, and then act. Don’t just think about it.

- James and David