Buyers get biggest discount in six years

Tracking two markets

Can we even call it a “trend” anymore? For a long time now, there’s been a clear split in the housing market between typical buyers and the wealthy buyers at the top end.

In today’s edition, we’re going to look at both sides of the market.

For typical buyers, there’s good news, as they just saw the biggest September discount since 2019. We’ll dig into the data and show why sellers are finally seeing the reality of the market here.

Meanwhile, wealthy buyers are living in another reality. The roadblocks that befall typical buyers simply don’t apply to them. In our second and third stories, we look at that side of the market, and explain why it shows no signs of slowing down.

With that, let’s get right into today’s edition of The Blueprint!

- James and David

Homebuyers saw the biggest September discount since 2019

In September, homes sold for 1.4% below asking, the biggest September discount since 2019. Only one in four homes sold above asking, the lowest share since 2019. With affordability still tight, but competition fading, this marks a clear shift in negotiating power. Here are other key stats from September:

• Time on market stretched to 50 days – Homes took longer to sell than in any September since 2016. The slower pace reflects both cautious buyers and sellers struggling to attract offers.

• Prices edge up despite softer demand – The median sale price rose 1.7% year over year to $435,545, the highest September on record. Fewer listings and gradual rate declines are keeping prices from falling even as demand cools.

• Regional markets show mixed trends – Midwest metros like Milwaukee and Detroit led in price growth, while Texas markets saw slight declines. San Francisco remained an outlier, with homes selling 4% above asking—the strongest premium nationwide.

Our take

Sellers are finally getting the message: to move their homes in today’s market, pricing needs to be sharp and flexible. Buyers won’t bite unless the price—and the terms—feel right. Concessions and reductions are becoming the norm, not the exception. The sellers winning this fall are the ones willing to meet the market where it is, not where it was.

All-cash deals hold steady, while down payments hit record high

All-cash purchases are holding steady in 2025, even as mortgage rates ease and competition cools. Meanwhile, down payments have climbed to new highs. The result is a housing landscape where wealth, not just credit access, determines who can buy. Here’s a brief overview of the market:

• Cash deals steady at 29% – Roughly three in ten homes sold in August were bought entirely in cash, unchanged from last year, but down from the peak of 35% in 2023. As rates fell and bidding wars faded, the advantage of paying cash diminished slightly.

• Median down payment hits $70,000 (19%) – Down payments rose 6% year over year, hitting a record high in dollar terms. The growth outpaced home prices, showing that buyers are contributing more upfront even as prices rise modestly.

• Affluent buyers dominate – Most current buyers are well-capitalized, often leveraging equity or investments to secure homes. With rates still around 6.5%, they’re choosing large down payments over full cash purchases to lower monthly costs.

• Regional divides remain stark – Cash sales are highest in Florida metros like West Palm Beach (43%), while California leads in down-payment size, with medians exceeding $400,000 in San Jose and San Francisco. By contrast, buyers in Virginia Beach and Cleveland put down less than $30,000.

Our take

The numbers tell a clear story–today’s market belongs to buyers with money in hand. Even as rates drop, along with competition, affordability remains out of reach for many first-time buyers. Until inventory expands and prices moderate, cash-rich and equity-heavy buyers will continue to shape the home sale market. For agents, that means adapting your strategy to serve financially ready clients, while helping others find creative paths to compete.

The biggest luxe sales of the year… so far

While sales across the broader market have been sluggish, ultra-luxury sales haven’t slowed in 2025. The only real change: they’ve become more concentrated around certain high-end locales. Florida and California lead the pack, while a handful of trophy properties in New York and Hawaii round out the list. 

These are the most expensive home sales of 2025 so far:

1. 2200 Gordon Dr., Naples, FL 34102: Sold for $133 million in April

2. 594 S. Mapleton Dr., Los Angeles, CA 90024: Sold for $110 million in July

3. 630 Nimes Rd., Los Angeles, CA 90077: Sold for $110 million in May

4. 329 Albion Ave., Woodside, CA 94062: Sold for $85 million in September

5. 28719 Grayfox St., Malibu, CA 90265: Sold for $80 million in July 

6. 88 La Gorce Cir., Miami Beach, FL 33141: Sold for $74.3 million in April

7. 4823 Kahala Ave., Honolulu, HI 96816: Sold for $65.8 million in March

8. 71 Beverly Park, Beverly Hills, CA 90210: Sold for $63.1 million in June

9. 66 La Gorce Cir., Miami Beach, FL 33141: Sold for $60 million in March

10. 150 Charles St., Unit 9A, New York, NY 10014: Sold for $60 million in March

Our take

Even in a slower housing market, the ultra-luxury segment continues to defy gravity. These record-setting sales underscore how wealth at the top end of the market is both resilient and geographically concentrated, drawn to tax-friendly states and world-class coastal enclaves. For agents, it’s a reminder that premium inventory doesn’t follow the same rules as the broader market. Exclusivity, privacy, and location still command extraordinary prices.

When we decided to join Million Dollar Listing, it was all about reach. We knew the kind of clients TV exposure could bring. Today, social media has that same power. That’s why our partners at Estate Media created the Agent Growth Program specifically for agents and brokerages who want to elevate their social presence to the next level. You film in short sessions, and their team handles everything else: scripting, editing, posting, and performance tracking. The Blueprint readers get a free social media audit.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cuts

• Why Zillow is pulling Matterport from its platform

• Supreme Court declines to hear Rex-Zillow case, ending lengthy fight 

• The genius marketing move realtors can learn from Ralph Lauren

• Mortgage rates could be stuck above 6% for the next several years 

• The best social media ideas for agents, according to Jimmy Burgess

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

Krys Benyamein always says, “If your business only grows when the market does, that’s not a business. That’s a hobby.” He’s exactly right! Obviously, you can’t control everything around you, but you must take proactive steps to stack the deck in your favor. Today, we’d like to offer you some tips on how you can do that in your prep for 2026.

1. Figure out what’s really working –  Before you set new goals, take a quick inventory of what actually drove your business this year. Go through each closing and jot down where that client came from — past clients, open houses, Instagram, referrals, whatever it was. You’ll probably notice a few sources doing the heavy lifting. That’s your signal to double down. Knowing where your wins are coming from helps you focus on what really moves the needle, instead of spreading yourself thin.

2. Refresh your online presence – You’d be surprised how many agents still have headshots from five years ago floating around the internet. Take time this week to make sure your photo, bio, and tone match across every platform where clients might find you — Google, Zillow, LinkedIn, your website, all of it. Think of it as a digital first impression. When everything looks current and cohesive, people (and algorithms) read you as professional, credible, and ready for business..

3. Jump-start the new year with a banger of a client event – If you want momentum in January, you have to build it now. Start planning something small but memorable — a casual mixer, coffee meet-up, or appreciation brunch — to reconnect with past clients and friends of your business. These events don’t have to be fancy; they just have to be genuine. The relationships you rekindle in Q4 are often the first deals you’ll close in Q1.

For more excellent ideas, we highly encourage you to read this piece from Krys, which inspired our own thoughts on the matter. The bottom line: don’t wait until 2026 to get started. Start to prep now to hit the ground running in January.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

"Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution."  – Attributed to Aristotle

Thanks for reading, friends. Be intentional with your time and what you do because excellence doesn’t just happen. It takes focus, practice, and effort.

Have a great week. We’ll see you back here on Friday!

- James and David