Big jump projected for 2026 home sales

Forecasting the future

At this time of year, we start to see a lot of forecasts for the 2026 market. 

Our loyal readers know that while we always keep an eye on these forecasts, we also don’t put much stock in them.

Today, we’ll dig into the latest report from NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Trust us, it gives us a much-needed dose of positivity we could all use! At the same time, we’ll explain why there’s still a lot that needs to happen before those predictions come to fruition. 

We’ll keep you posted as all the 2026 forecasts come out… and we’ll also try to keep us all a little grounded about them too!

- James and David

Home sales forecast to spike by 14% in 2026

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicts that existing home sales will jump 14% in 2026. This rebound is contingent on the Federal Reserve executing further rate cuts to stabilize a softening job market. Yun anticipates there will be two rate cuts which will push the average 30-year rate down to approximately 6.0%. Here are other key parts of this report:

• Price jumps: Overall home prices expected to climb by 4% next year.

• Buyer Demographics: The median age of a first-time homebuyer is now 40 years old.

• Purchasing strategies: Buyers are increasingly using financial assets or cash for their purchases. A surprising 8% of these older first-time buyers are making all-cash purchases.

• Reason for Moving: The top reason for moving is being closer to friends and family. This replaces the previous top reason: changes in jobs. It’s being dubbed the "grandbaby effect" since many older people are moving to be closer to their grandkids.

• Longer home tenure: The typical stay in a home is now at 11 years, above the historical average of six-to-seven years.

Our take

Based on his history, Lawrence Yun tends to be overly optimistic in his forecasts, so we suggest taking his projections with a grain of salt. That said, in this case, his forecasts aren't unreasonable. It will all come down to mortgage rates. If the Fed fails to cut rates and the 30-year average stays above 6.0%, home sales won't surge. It would be wise for agents to frame this forecast as the potential best-case scenario, and definitely not a guarantee. Keep your focus on market fundamentals that are already shifting, like the older, cash-rich first-time buyers.

Local MLSs have far more power now

NAR has approved the most sweeping update to its MLS Handbook in 20 years. The 18 policy changes, effective January 2026, streamline national rules, reduce legal exposure, and give local MLSs far more control and power over access and operations. Here’s what agents need to know:

• MLS access rules are now fully controlled at the local level – NAR eliminated policies tying MLS access to NAR membership, including the major repeal of Policy 7.7. Each MLS will now determine its own participation requirements, reflecting growing legal pressure against mandatory membership.

• NAR removed outdated and unenforceable national rules –  Policies governing service areas, naming conventions, reciprocal agreements, and third-party listing transmission were repealed. Many of these rules were relics with no enforcement mechanism; removing them simplifies operations and lowers risk.

• Broker-related rules and disciplinary structures were scaled back – NAR repealed policies on offer presentation, cooperating-broker rights, open listings, fine schedules, and key-security systems. Discipline and enforcement are now left to local MLSs, allowing for more market-specific governance.

• The changes reflect a broader shift toward modernization and local autonomy – NAR says the revisions better align with how agents work today and reduce national liability. The updates signal a long-term strategy of streamlining the handbook and empowering MLSs to set rules that fit their markets.

Our take

This overhaul signals a clear shift: NAR is stepping back, and local MLSs have more power now. By repealing mandatory membership rules and stripping out outdated national policies, NAR is decentralizing power and offloading risk, allowing MLSs to operate with far more autonomy than before. The challenge now? Markets may begin to diverge in how they handle access, enforcement, and operations. For agents, the landscape won’t change overnight, but expect more local variation, as it’s now on the local MLSs to define what participation looks like in their own markets.

New foreclosures jumped nearly 20% in October

In October, foreclosure activity rose again – up 3% from September and 19% year-over-year – as one in every 3,871 housing units received a notice, for a total of 36,766 filings. 

Foreclosure starts were up 20% year-over-year, and repossessions were up 32% YoY. Overall, the data points to continued upward pressure in select markets despite activity remaining below historic norms.

Here are the top 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates:

1. Florida: 1 in every 1,829 HU 

2. South Carolina: 1 in every 1,982 HU

3. Illinois: 1 in every 2,570 HU

4. Delaware: 1 in every 2,710 HU

5. Nevada: 1 in every 2,747 HU

6. Ohio: 1 in every 3,079 HU

7. Iowa: 1 in every 3,222 HU

8. Maryland: 1 in every 3,272 HU

9. Utah: 1 in every 3,278 HU

10. California: 1 in every 3,407 HU

Foreclosures are rising – not surging – but the trend is getting harder to ignore. Starts and completions are climbing for the eighth straight month, concentrated in states already stretched by affordability pressures, high insurance costs, or weaker economic fundamentals. Levels remain far below Great Recession peaks, but the mix of elevated consumer debt, stubborn rates, and softening job markets suggests more households are running out of room to maneuver. This is a clear signal that pockets of stress are building beneath an otherwise tight housing market.

Schematics

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• What every agent can learn from Coldwell Banker’s CEO, Kamini Lane

• Go inside Mark Wahlberg’s new $37 million mansion in Florida

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

Whenever you study any craft, business, or enterprise, it’s important to study both what causes success and what causes failure. So, as part of our Prep for ‘26 series, we dive into the most common reasons why agents don’t succeed in the industry. 

In today’s edition, we cover four reasons. We will then conclude the two-part series by covering the final four reasons in our next edition. Let’s jump in. 

1. Lack of commitment – There is a saying we often use to communicate this idea. You can’t be half-pregnant. You either are or aren’t. The same is true with real estate. Being an agent is extremely competitive. You have to dedicate yourself to this craft. Live and breathe real estate. You’ve gotta be all in. It’s too easy to quit when the going gets tough. 

2. Lack of strategic thinking –  Be a wealth of information, but be strategic in how you communicate it. Listen to your clients and answer the questions they are asking. Be responsive to them. Not everything you know needs to be shared with them. Your goal is not to be Google. Your goal is to customize information for your clients. Know everything you can about real estate – all the key terms, trends, price fluctuations, comps, etc. – but tailor it to their specific needs and wants. Don’t bullshit, be real. People can tell the difference. 

3. Fear of failure – For us, success is failure turned inside out. We’re not telling you to intentionally make mistakes; instead, don’t let the fear of making mistakes debilitate you from taking action. For example, we often have agents ask us many questions about door-knocking. After a few weeks have passed, they’ll ask us more questions about door-knocking. In the meantime, they’ve not door-knocked even one door! Their fear of rejection and making mistakes completely prevents them from taking action. In this business, not everyone will like you or want your services. Many will reject you. But many will also appreciate your efforts, and you’ll become a success because of it. Don’t let the fear and pain of rejection prevent you from achieving your dreams. The rejections and the mistakes are part of the process.  

4. Having no good role models –  Surround yourself with successful and inspiring people. Success breeds success. You don’t have to be like everybody. Some people’s style won’t be true to who you are. Find mentors that you align with and that speak to you. Learn from them and adapt their strategies to your business. Without being self-doubtful and unconfident, remain humble and teachable. We encourage you to be like Kobe Bryant in this regard. He was constantly learning and improving his game. Be aware of your limitations, but don’t be limited by them. Learn what you have to do to overcome those limitations to achieve the goals you want. Study, learn, and apply the lessons of those who have come before you and have succeeded in this game.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“You’ve gotta keep control of your time, and you can’t unless you say no. You can’t let people set your agenda in life.” — Warren Buffett

Don’t let events or other people set your agenda. Stay ruthlessly focused on your goals — your time is limited, and you only get one life. Make the most of it. Have a wonderful week. We’ll see you back here on Friday!

- James and David