35% of homeowners won’t give up sub-6% mortgage rate “for any reason”

Before you dive in

The Blueprint exists to make you better in the field. We love breaking down the biggest stories in real estate and giving you our takes on them — but just as important is pointing you toward what's actually working right now, whether that's lead gen, AI, or tools that give you an edge.

That's why over the next few editions we're running a quick survey — to get a clearer picture of what you're using, what you trust, and what's actually worth your time. It takes under a minute, and it helps us serve you better.

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- David

NAR sharply lowers forecast for 2026

The National Association of Realtors has sharply revised down its forecast for 2026. Existing-home sales growth is now projected at +4% (down from +14%) and new-home sales growth is now revised to 0% (down from +5%). 

Here are the key takeaways from its revised forecast:

• Demand is already softening: Sales sitting at 3.98M SAAR, down 3.6% month-over-month and 1% year-over-year

• Mortgage rates reset expectations: Now around 6.32% (vs. 5.98% in February), with a 6.5% average forecast for 2026

• Inflation reaccelerating: March CPI came in at +3.3% (up from 2.4%), driven largely by energy

• Energy shock is the catalyst: Gas prices jumped 21.2% in one month, accounting for nearly 75% of the CPI increase

My take

The story about 2026 has fundamentally changed. What was expected to be a breakout year is now shaping up to be slower, tighter, and largely dictated by forces outside of housing. You can see it in the numbers: buyer activity is picking up, but so are cancellations, signaling hesitation at the finish line. With mortgage rates still elevated and inflation being driven by energy and global tensions, that uncertainty is sticking around. Until things stabilize—whether through calmer rates, cooling inflation, or less geopolitical volatility—expect a market where deals start but don’t always close. Scroll down to today’s Foundation Plans. We outline how to deal with a real problem many agents are facing now: clients who get cold feet and want to back out.

35% of homeowners won’t give up sub-6% mortgage rate “for any reason”

About 76% of homeowners have mortgage rates below 6%, and nearly half (48%) say they’re unwilling to give them up, with 35% ruling it out entirely (rising to 52% among those locked in below 3%). That’s according to the latest surveys from Clever Real Estate and Hippo via realestatenews.com.

Here’s what else realestatenews.com reports:

• Affordability is the biggest constraint on moving: 47% aren’t confident they could afford a new loan at today’s rates, and 44% say high rates are the main reason they’re staying put longer.

• Rates would need to fall significantly to unlock supply: Roughly 2 in 5 homeowners would need rates below 4% to sell, and 1 in 5 wouldn’t move unless rates drop below 3%.

• There is still movement—but it’s selective and demographic-driven: About 1 in 10 plan to move within two years, while 32% plan to move within five years, driven mainly by relocation (34%), downsizing (32%), and lower taxes. Younger cohorts are far more mobile (47% of Gen Z, 43% of millennials vs. 18% of boomers).

• Regret is a major underlying driver: 52% of homeowners regret their mortgage, jumping to 75% for those with rates above 6%, and 67% of would-be movers regret their last home purchase, often citing costs, timing, and missed lower-rate opportunities.

My take

We’re bringing this to your attention because we want agents to come face to face with reality: 35% of homeowners with sub-6% rates say they won’t sell for any reason, which is a real constraint on supply. But don’t let that throw you off. Even in this kind of market, transactions are still expected to move higher: existing-home sales are projected to grow between 0.5% (Zillow) and 4% (NAR) in 2026, even after NAR dialed expectations back. What that means is simple: this isn’t a dead market, it’s just a more selective one. Not everyone is moving, but the people who need to move still are – whether it’s for a job, downsizing, or taxes – and that’s where the opportunity is. The agents who do well here won’t be waiting for a flood of inventory; they’ll be focused on finding and serving the motivated few who are actually in play.

Homeowners are holding on to their houses for longer

Homeowners are staying and holding onto their properties for longer before selling.  Homeowners who sold in the first quarter of 2026 had owned their homes for an average of 8.44 years, a slight decline from the 8.46-year average tenure recorded in Q4 2025 but up from the 7.93-year average tenure in Q1 2025.

Here are the states with the longest and shortest homeownership tenures:

My take

This is one of the clearest signals that the housing market is still tight on the supply side. The “lock-in effect” from low mortgage rates isn’t just a theory — it’s showing up in real behavior. When people are staying in their homes for 8+ years on average, turnover slows, listings stay limited, and competition for good inventory heats up. For agents, that changes the landscape: you’re no longer working in a high-churn market. Every listing matters more, and winning one takes more intentional prospecting, better timing, and sharper positioning. The upside is that when sellers do decide to move, they’re usually serious—but getting them off the sidelines is where the real skill comes in.

Schematics

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Foundation Plans

Advice from David to win the day

We are always on the lookout for publications and resources that could help our fellow agents, especially those just starting out. Tom Toole recently put out one of the more practical resources we've seen for agents dealing with a problem that never really goes away: clients who hesitate, stall, or walk away right before the finish line.

He breaks down the two types of cold-feet objections — and the exact scripts to handle them without coming across as pushy. With more than 50,000 home-purchase contracts falling through in March alone, the timing couldn't be better.

For the next three Tuesday editions, we will cover some of his practical advice and give you our take on it, too.  Today, we’re starting with the foundation: what your mindset should be when a client starts to hesitate.

1. Expect clients to walk away. About 1 in 5 will. – Even in the best of times, and when you are doing everything right, you should expect about 20% of the people you work with to walk away. This is a shocking statistic that Tom cites, but it’s actually liberating and helpful to know. It keeps you from getting thrown off when it happens. Deals falling apart isn’t always a mistake; it’s part of the business.

2. Keep your pipeline full, so you don’t sound desperate –  This is the harder truth. Most agents struggle with cold-feet moments, not because they lack the right script, but because they can't afford to lose the deal — and the client can feel it. It shows up in how you talk, how you respond, and how much pressure you put on them.

The agents who handle these conversations well have usually built something most agents don't have: a full pipeline They’re having 10–15 real estate conversations a day. They’re following up, staying in touch, and consistently prospecting.

That rhythm gives them the headspace to actually lead — not just react.

When you're not desperate, you can look a client in the eye and say, "If this isn't the right move, it's okay to walk away" — and mean it.

That's what earns trust. That's what drives referrals. And that's what brings clients back when they're ready. 

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“To get something you never had, you have to do something you never did.” — Denzel Washington

Success always requires hard work, but effort alone won’t move the needle. At some point, you have to step outside your comfort zone, take calculated risks, and do things that feel unfamiliar. That’s where real progress happens.

If you stay within your boundaries, and you’ll keep getting the same results, friends.

- David