Zillow: Home prices are about to stall

Structure the deal

Buyers may be hesitant right now, but make no mistake: they’re in a strong position. As we cover in today’s edition, national home prices are expected to stay flat, and there are 600,168 more sellers than buyers in the market (a 43.1% gap). 

That’s real leverage.

The problem is, most buyers don’t know what to do with it. Even when they sense the shift, they’re still focusing only on price and missing the bigger opportunity.

In today’s Foundation Plans, we show you how to help your buyers actually use that leverage. 

In our current market, the agents who win won’t just negotiate price, they’ll know how to structure the deal.

- David

Zillow cuts home price outlook through 2027

Currently, U.S. home prices are up +0.8% year-over-year as measured by Zillow’s Home Value index. However, in its latest forecast, Zillow expects national home prices to grow +0.0% between March 2026 and March 2027.  

Here’s what else Zillow projects:

• Existing home sales as measured by Zillow’s sales nowcast are projected to increase 0.5% annually to 3.73 million in 2026, while Zillow’s forecast of NAR’s existing home sales measure shows an increase of 1.6% to 4.13 million.

• By December 2026, Zillow expects home price to be up +0.3%

• By December 2026, Zillow expects the typical single-family rent to be up +2%, while the typical multifamily rent should be up +1%

• The top 3 markets expected to see the highest home price growth are Syracuse, NY, Rockford, IL, and Atlantic City, NJ

My take

The big story here is that the market isn’t falling apart … it’s just… not going anywhere. When Zillow is calling for basically 0% price growth, you’re in a flat market where price isn’t doing the heavy lifting anymore. That means deals take more work, buyers have more room to push, and how you structure and negotiate matters a lot more than it did a couple years ago. This isn’t a market you sit around waiting to improve; it’s one you have to actively learn how to operate in. It’s a skills-based market.

74% of buyers hire the first agent they talk to

Most buyers aren’t carefully comparing agents; they’re hiring the first one they talk to. According to a new report from NAR via BAM, 74% of buyers go with the first agent they engage, making speed, availability, and early positioning the decisive factors in winning business in today’s market.

Here are the key takeaways from the report.

• First-Mover Advantage Is Real – 74% of buyers hire the first agent they speak with, meaning the battle for the client is often won or lost in the initial interaction—not after a long comparison process.

• Speed to Lead Wins Deals – The agent who responds first dramatically increases their odds of converting the lead. Fast follow-up isn’t just good practice—it’s the primary competitive edge.

• Referrals Still Dominate the Pipeline – 58% of buyers come from referrals or repeat relationships, reinforcing that long-term client satisfaction compounds into future business.

• Core Buyer Expectations Are Straightforward – Half of buyers (50%) primarily want help finding the right home, while negotiation support makes up the next most important value drivers.

• High Satisfaction Fuels the Flywheel – 91% of buyers say they would use their agent again or recommend them, underscoring how a single well-executed transaction can generate multiple future opportunities.

My take

What this really shows is that most buyers aren’t going through some careful, side-by-side evaluation of agents; they’re reacting in the moment. They reach out, and whoever shows up first and seems competent usually wins the business. That changes the game. It’s less about having the perfect pitch or brand, and more about execution—how fast you respond, how available you are, and how well you build trust right out of the gate. In this kind of environment, the agents who consistently win aren’t necessarily the most impressive on paper—they’re the ones who are disciplined enough to be first, and sharp enough to convert when the opportunity shows up.

The best agents and operators don’t just need more leads. They need more leverage.

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Markets where buyers have the most leverage

In March, there were 600,168 or 43.1% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market. According to Redfin, whenever there are at least 10% more sellers than buyers in an area, it’s considered a buyer’s market. Right now, 38 of the 49 largest U.S. metros are buyer’s markets and, in several metros, sellers outnumber buyers by 100% or more. 

Here are the top 10 markets where sellers outnumber buyers by the highest margins:

1. Miami, FL — 147.9% 

2. Nashville, TN — 119.0% 

3. Austin, TX — 112.1% 

4. San Antonio, TX — 109.0%

5. Las Vegas, NV — 100.7% 

6. Houston, TX — 96.5% 

7. West Palm Beach, FL — 94.0% 

8. Charlotte, NC — 88.7% 

9. Dallas, TX — 86.7% Tampa, FL — 82.7%

My take

What stands out isn’t just that buyers have leverage, it’s where it’s emerging and why. Many of these markets are pandemic-era boomtowns where construction surged, but demand has since cooled under higher rates. That imbalance is now forcing sellers to compete with each other, reshaping how deals get done: price cuts are more common, concessions are back on the table, and buyers can afford to be patient and selective. Scroll down to today’s Foundation Plans for specific strategies to help your buyers convert that leverage into stronger deals.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• These are the skills you need to turn more appointments into closings

• She tried using AI to get more eyes on her listing…and got nowhere. Then, one simple switch led to a 169% increase in views

• Worried about home prices falling? This new type of insurance safeguards your equity. 

• If you lose your job, owning a home gives you a key advantage over renting

• You don’t need a full HGTV makeover to sell your house. Experts say these cheap tweaks can boost your home’s appeal fast.

Foundation Plans

Advice from David to win the day

For the first time in years, buyers have leverage again—but most don’t know how to use it. They’re still negotiating like it’s 2021, going straight at price and getting nowhere. The smarter move in this market is different: keep the headline price intact and negotiate everything around it. Here are some tips on how to actually use that leverage in practice. 

1. Target stale listings (30+ days) – Once a home sits for a month, seller psychology shifts. Confidence gives way to urgency, and that’s where leverage shows up. This is your window to push for meaningful concessions.

2. Negotiate closing costs, not just price – Sellers are far more flexible on covering 2–5% in closing costs than they are on cutting price. Structure the deal so the seller keeps their number, while the buyer lowers cash-to-close.

3. Use concessions to buy down the rate – A small credit today can materially lower a buyer’s monthly payment. In a rate-sensitive market, this is often more valuable than a marginal price reduction.

4. Push for repairs and turnkey condition – Buyers are expecting move-in ready again—and sellers know it. Roof, systems, paint—these are all back on the table. The “as-is” era is fading.

In our current environment, the agents who win will be the ones who know how to structure deals, not just negotiate the price. For more tips, see here. 

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“To get something you never had, you have to do something you never did.” — Denzel Washington

Success always requires hard work, but effort alone won’t move the needle. At some point, you have to step outside your comfort zone, take calculated risks, and do things that feel unfamiliar. That’s where real progress happens. Stay within your boundaries, and you’ll keep getting the same results.

- David