Why buyers AND sellers are dropping out

The market stalemate

As you’ll see in today’s edition, the housing market is locked in a stalemate, with both buyers and sellers hesitant to make a move. We’ll show you the latest data and explain how agents can navigate these tricky market conditions.

But it’s not all heavy stuff! We also know how much our readers enjoy reports on the luxury sector, and today, we’ve got a good one–a look at Miami’s fascinating market. Sales are growing fast, and there’s one thing many of them have in common: cash.

Plus, with downsizing becoming a more common trend, we give you our best tips for targeting this important client base.

With that, let’s dig into today’s Blueprint!

- James and David

Homeowners are showing less urgency to list

New listings rose 2.7% from a year ago, but that’s slower growth than the previous week and still below spring and summer norms, according to the latest housing trends update from realtor.com. Here’s what else the listing service reports:

• Active inventory is up: Inventory is up 20.3% YoY. About 1.1 million homes were on the market last week, the 94th straight week of annual gains and the 17th week above 1 million listings. 

• Homes linger longer: Homes spent 7 more days on market than a year ago, as high housing costs and economic uncertainty cool buyer demand, and inventory is growing faster than new listings.

• Price growth is flat: The median listing price and price-per-square-foot held steady year over year for the third straight week, ending a nearly two-year growth streak.

Our take

The market remains in a standoff. Buyers are cautious under high rates and prices, while sellers are holding back and keeping new supply tight. That restraint is preventing sharper price declines, even as homes take longer to sell. Until we see a substantial drop in mortgage rates, we’re unlikely to see a break in this stalemate. In the meantime, agents will need to help buyers and sellers recalibrate expectations.

Both homebuyers AND sellers are staying on the sidelines

The housing market is slowing on both sides. The number of sellers dropped by about 14,000 over the past two months, slipping from a May peak of 1.96 million to 1.95 million in July. According to Redfin, this is the first decline since July 2023, when supply neared historic lows as high mortgage rates kept sellers from listing. 

Meanwhile, buyer demand neared record lows in July, with just 1.43 million active buyers remaining in the market. If we don’t count the early pandemic months, that’s the lowest mark since 2013.

Here’s other key info from Redfin’s update:

• Buyers hold leverage: There are 36% more sellers than buyers, the widest gap on record. Right now, 35 of the 50 largest metros are buyer’s markets, while only five are still favoring sellers (notably Texas and Florida). The other ten are balanced.

• Buyer’s markets vs Seller’s markets: Redfin defines a market where there are over 10% more sellers than buyers as a buyer’s market, and a market where there are over 10% fewer sellers than buyers as a seller’s market. A market where the gap is plus or minus 10% is considered a balanced market.

Our take

Mortgage rates have been falling recently, which could bring some buyers and sellers back into the game. Until then, the housing market is likely to remain sluggish. For agents, that means more competition for each buyer, and the need to differentiate through pricing strategy and negotiation skills. On the flip side, motivated buyers with the means to purchase have more leverage than they’ve had in years.

The luxury market of Miami – where cash is king!

Of the 152,000 homes listed above $1 million, about 11,000 are in the Miami metro, ranking third nationally behind New York and Los Angeles. Miami had nearly 50,000 active listings in July, with more than one in five priced at $1 million or more, far above the national share of 13.8%. 

Here’s what else you need to know about this growing luxury market:

• Cash dominates: More than half of Miami’s million-dollar homes are bought in all-cash deals. That share rises with price: 

  • 36% for $750K–$1M homes

  • 54% for $5M–$10M homes

  • 59% for homes above $10M

• Record-setting luxury sales: In the first half of 2025, 83% of condo sales topping $2,000 per square foot were cash, with sales volume up 631% since 2019. For single-family homes, 79% were all cash, up 1,200% from pre-pandemic levels.

• Sellers stand firm: Rather than cut prices, Miami sellers increasingly delist. In July, 59 homes were delisted for every 100 new listings—more than double May’s rate—while price reductions remained scarce compared with other markets.

Our take

Miami’s luxury market is powered by cash, not credit, and that makes it uniquely resilient. Wealthy buyers can move quickly without financing, giving them an edge and keeping sellers confident. Instead of cutting prices, many owners simply wait, knowing demand – both domestic and international – remains strong. For agents, success in this market means cultivating relationships with high-net-worth clients and understanding that in Miami, cash isn’t just preferred, it’s expected.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• Mortgage rates move lower, hitting a 10-month low

• Why buyers shouldn’t count on a future refi to save money

• Why real estate investors are willing to pay more to work with private money lenders

• More than half of Canadians with homes in the U.S. are selling

• Listen to this and learn how to close 60 homes a year

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

Downsizers are one of the best lead sources in today’s market, and yet they’re often overlooked. They are mainly boomers who bought their properties decades ago, but now with their kids having moved out, they’re ready to trade their large, maintenance-heavy homes for something more manageable. 

With the right approach, downsizers can create a “double transaction” opportunity—selling their current home while purchasing their next one. By targeting this group strategically, you can uncover motivated sellers before they ever hit the market. Here’s how:

1. Build exclusive lists using relevant criteria – Whether you use the MLS or public records,  you can layer in criteria (like age, household size, years of ownership, property type) to pinpoint homeowners most likely considering a move. Building your own list, rather than relying on widely-sold lead lists, gives you exclusivity and a deeper understanding of each homeowner’s life stage. This personalization not only sets you apart, but also ensures your outreach feels tailored and relevant.

2. Segment by downsizer type – Not all downsizers are alike. Empty nesters may be motivated for various reasons: needing less space, reducing costs, retiring to a new location, etc. Segmenting your list allows you to craft different messages for each group. For example, showing retirees single-story homes near amenities, while highlighting lower utility bills and taxes for financial downsizers. The more specific you are to their “why,” the more compelling your value proposition will be.

3. Use a multi-channel outreach strategy – No single channel will reach every downsizer. Combine direct mail, phone calls, emails, and even text campaigns to create multiple touch points. Each interaction should feel personal—using names, neighborhood references, or details like years of ownership to show you’ve done your homework. Consistency across channels builds recognition, keeps you top of mind, and increases the likelihood of turning curiosity into a conversation.

4. Nurture with education and empathy – Downsizing can be an emotional process, especially for sellers leaving family homes. Position yourself as a trusted advisor by offering resources like decluttering guides, downsizing checklists, and neighborhood spotlights on 55+ communities. Follow up with thoughtful touch points, like postcards with lifestyle-focused messages or email tips on simplifying the move. By focusing on support rather than sales pressure, you’ll build trust that leads to both transactions and referrals.

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Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

Take ownership of your life, friends. What you’re not changing, you’re choosing. Whatever your goal, the path is the same: make the move. Decide to become the person you want to be, and then act. Don’t just dream about it.

Have a wonderful Labor Day weekend! We’ll see you back here on Tuesday!

- James and David