We’re in the strongest buyer's market on record

Ruthless consistency

Consistency beats clever tactics. Every single time.

You don't need hacks to win in this business. You need to show up — consistently. That's it. That's the whole game.

Success in real estate is remarkably simple. We're not reinventing the wheel here. It’s consistent communication, reliable information, and daily value creation. Do those three things every day, no matter how you feel.

But simple doesn't mean easy. It's boring. It's repetitive. It looks like nothing's happening — until it does.

In 2024, my team and I sold $1B of real estate. In 2025, we sold another $938M. And now, The Real Deal has ranked us No. 3 in its LA Residential Broker Ranking, with $482M across 53 transactions so far this year.

That didn’t happen by chance, friends. It’s what ruthless consistency looks like when you compound it over time.

It’s time to lock in.

- James

Monthly inflation came in hotter than expected 

The BLS reports that consumer prices rose 3.4% year-over-year in August, and core inflation – which excludes food and energy prices – came in at 2.4%. 

More troublingly, inflation rose 0.4% from the prior month — four times July's 0.1% pace, and monthly core inflation rose by 0.3% in August, also above expectations. 

Here are the key facts to know:

• Energy is the main driver. Gasoline rose 3.9% for the month (+27.4% YoY), over a third of August's increase. Diesel hit a record national average above $6/gallon, up from $3.70 a year ago.

• Inflation is starting to spread beyond energy: Shelter rose 0.3% (vs. 0.1% prior two months), and annually: airfare +23%, hospital services and car repair +5.2% each, electricity +3.8%, clothing +3.6%.

• Mortgage rates are back above 7%. The 30-year fixed rate climbed to 7.07% (per Mortgage News Daily), up from 6.29% a year ago, as the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.92% — a 215 bps spread.

• Markets expect a hike: After the release of the CPI report, the odds of a rate hike jumped from 69.4% to 87.3%, according to the CME FedWatch tool

My take

The Fed meets next Tuesday and Wednesday, and markets are now overwhelmingly betting on a 25-basis-point hike. But here’s the counterintuitive part: a Fed hike doesn’t necessarily mean mortgage rates go higher. If investors see the move as a credible step toward getting inflation back under control, long-term Treasury yields could fall — pulling mortgage rates down with them. A pause could have the opposite effect if markets interpret it as the Fed falling behind inflation, pushing yields and mortgage rates even higher. That’s what makes next week so important. The Fed isn’t just deciding what to do with short-term rates; it’s trying to convince the bond market that inflation won’t get away from it. It’s the Fed’s move now.

The strongest buyer’s market on record

Home sellers now outnumber buyers by 57.9% nationally, making August the strongest buyer's market on record. That’s according to Redfin’s latest market update. 

Here are the main takeaways:

• National gap hits a record high: There were an estimated 57.9% more sellers than buyers in the U.S. in August, up sharply from 52.1% in July.

• Nashville tops the list: The city posted a 139% seller surplus — the widest gap in its history — followed by Miami (138%) and Houston (131%).

• Eight metros have at least 2x more sellers than buyers: Orlando, Las Vegas, San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas join Nashville, Miami, and Houston in this group.

• The Sun Belt dominates: All 10 of the strongest buyer's markets — including Atlanta and Phoenix — are located in the Sun Belt, with four in Texas alone.

• Inventory is surging: An estimated 1,534,918 sellers were active in the market, the highest count in six years and up 3.9% month over month — the biggest monthly jump on record.

• Buyer demand is essentially flat: The estimated number of active buyers rose just 0.1% to 972,300, following the lowest level ever recorded in July.

• Seller's markets are rare: Only 5 of 49 major metros analyzed are seller's markets, led by Nassau County, NY (-28%) and including San Francisco, which is in seller's-market territory for just the second time in four years.

• Prices reflect the divide: Home prices rose 5.5% year over year in seller's markets, versus just 1.6% in buyer's markets.
  

My take

The market has flipped decisively in favor of buyers, and nowhere more dramatically than the Sun Belt boomtowns that were red-hot just a few years ago. But what’s especially striking is what pushed the market even further in buyers’ favor in August: sellers surged while buyers barely budged. After years of homeowners waiting for lower rates or a better time to sell, more are finally listing anyway — and price-strapped buyers simply aren’t keeping pace. The result is a housing market with more choice, more competition among sellers, and more negotiating leverage for the buyers who can still afford to participate. In much of the country, the old story of too many buyers chasing too few homes has been turned on its head.

The cities that take the most and least amount of time to build a home

In Indianapolis, a standard single-family home takes about 6 months from permit to move-in ready. In San Francisco, the same house takes nearly 4 years, according to ResiClub’s analysis of a new paper from economists at Princeton and the University of Chicago. 

The researchers analyzed roughly 1.1 million permit records covering 2.7 million housing units across 60 U.S. cities, going back to 2000. To compare cities fairly, they built a "standardized" project — the same-size single-family home — and estimated how long that identical house would take to permit and complete in each city.

Here’s the upshot: there's nearly an 8x gap between the fastest and slowest cities. And permitting alone explains 30% to 43% of the gap between them. In Miami, permitting takes about 1.4 years. In Indianapolis and Albuquerque, it takes a matter of weeks.

Here are the top 5 fastest and slowest cities for building a single-family home:

My take

This is truly eye-opening because it shows just how much housing supply is shaped before anyone starts hammering nails. Permitting alone explains 30% to 43% of the gap between the fastest and slowest cities. That’s not a labor or materials problem; it’s a policy problem — and, at least in principle, a fixable one. One important caveat: These are city-level numbers based on municipal permit records, not metro-level data. That matters particularly in fast-growing Sunbelt markets, where a significant amount of single-family construction occurs in suburbs or unincorporated areas outside the central city. So these rankings tell us a lot about individual cities, but not necessarily the building climate of the entire metro.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• It’s been 25 years since 9/11, but look at Manhattan now – It’s amazing

• Americans are the biggest foreign buyers in … wait for it …France! 

• Ranked: the best credit cards for agents

• This city is the top destination for Angelenos moving out of L.A.

• New useful tool for agents: see what any housing budget buys in every U.S. zip codes

Foundation Plans

Advice from James to win the day

In real estate, success often hinges not just on effort, but on how wisely that effort is directed. Many top agents reach a plateau because they try to handle everything themselves, from administrative work to client meetings. This instinct for control is natural, but it quickly becomes counterproductive, leading to stress and burnout. 

To rise above that ceiling, agents need to master the art of delegation, prioritize the tasks that drive growth, and consistently nurture their network. These practices don’t just save time — they create the foundation for sustainable, long-term success.

1. Master Delegation to Unlock Growth – Learning to delegate is one of the most difficult transitions for agents, but also the most rewarding. Building a trusted team allows you to shed nonessential tasks and free your time for client-facing activities. The reality is that trying to do everything alone leads to inefficiency and burnout. When you empower others to act as extensions of yourself, you create capacity for higher-level work and growth.

2. Hire Smart, Even Before You Feel Ready – Many agents hesitate to bring on an assistant because of financial strain, especially in the early stages. One effective strategy is to use a hybrid arrangement—offering a modest base pay paired with a percentage of commissions. This reduces overhead while aligning the assistant’s incentives with your success. The result is not just cost efficiency but a teammate who is truly invested in helping your business grow.

3. Focus on the 80/20 Rule – The majority of results come from a small portion of activities—usually those that put you directly in front of buyers and sellers. Instead of drowning in administrative details, top agents invest their energy in listing appointments, client calls, and networking. Delegating the other 80% of low-impact work ensures that your day is structured around what matters most. This discipline compounds over time, building a steady pipeline and stronger client relationships.

4. Stay Proactive with Your Network –  Having a large contact book is only half the battle; maintaining it is where real opportunities emerge. Checking in with past clients, contractors, and referral partners often leads to unexpected deals. The key is to be proactive—don’t assume people will reach out when they need you. By staying top of mind, you position yourself as the natural choice when opportunities arise, fueling both repeat and referral business. 

Breezy

Feature of the Week — Efficiency

Breezy runs alongside real estate agents throughout the day and acts as an AI personal assistant in real time.

At a high level, Breezy does these things:

• Captures and organizes conversations so no follow-up or detail gets lost

• Generates branded comps and reports on the fly, ready for clients

• Keeps your pipeline current automatically, without manual updating

• Reveals how you can reposition and develop your property through proprietary software we call Underbuilt

Instead of agents juggling spreadsheets, notes apps, CRM updates, and presentation tools, Breezy brings those workflows together.

Get Breezy here!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.” — Steve Jobs

Each day is a gift – a chance to live the life you want. Ruthlessly focus on your goals. Don’t let your past or the fear of being judged distract or paralyze you. Choose to live with an integrity that you can be proud of.

Have a wonderful weekend, friends, and I’ll see you back here next Friday!

- James