The bond market is flashing a warning sign

Putting yourself out there

I talk about this all the time: put yourself out there. You never know what's going to happen until you try.

One of my favorite stories from David's and my early days is a perfect example.

We were driving through Bel-Air scouting teardowns for a developer client when we spotted it — the perfect lot, perfect house, perfect location. So we did what we always do: we knocked on the door. No listing, no appointment, just us and a pitch. 

We managed to convince the homeowner to sell. We negotiated a great price, and just like that, we had a deal nobody else even knew was on the table.

Here's the part I love. Word got around, and another homeowner in Bel-Air heard about the sale and called us — asking if we could sell their teardown too. We hadn't pitched them. We hadn't prospected them. The work we'd already done was doing the work for us.

That's the thing about putting yourself out there. You're not just chasing the deal in front of you. You're planting something that can grow into deals you never saw coming.

- James

The bond market is flashing a warning sign

The latest Iran war developments caused oil prices to skyrocket and yields on U.S. Treasury bonds to spike. Both developments renewed concerns of rising inflation and higher mortgage rates.

Here are the key points to know:

• Freddie Mac: The weekly survey of the 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.58%, its highest level in nearly a year.

• Mortgage News Daily (MND): Using a different methodology than Freddie Mac, MND put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.85% on July 23 — up from 6.68% at the start of the prior week.

• 30-year Treasury yield: Has stayed above 5% for the longest stretch since 2007.

• 10-year Treasury yield: Closed around 4.7% Thursday, its highest level since January 2025 — a level that matters because mortgage rates track the 10-year yield more closely than the Fed's benchmark rate.

• Fed watch: A rate cut at next week's meeting is almost certainly off the table. The CME Group's FedWatch tool put the odds of a rate hike at 34%.

My take

Bond markets are sending a clear message: investors expect inflation and borrowing costs to stay higher for longer unless geopolitical tensions ease meaningfully. That matters because mortgage rates track Treasury yields more closely than the Fed's policy rate, so financing costs could stay elevated even if the Fed eventually cuts. The encouraging part is that housing has proven more resilient than expected so far — purchase demand is running ahead of last year, inventory has improved, and motivated buyers are adapting rather than disappearing. For agents, the lesson isn't to brace for a market freeze — it's to expect a market where pricing, financing, and negotiation matter more than ever. Higher rates are a real headwind, but this week's data says they haven't been enough on their own to stop transactions.

The unexpected places seeing the biggest spikes in roommate growth

Nearly 5.6 million U.S. renter households — 12% of the total — now include roommates, a 21% jump over the past decade, according to a new survey from storage marketplace StorageCafe.

The growth isn't concentrated in major cities, though. Renters are increasingly heading to suburban and secondary hubs instead — like Jersey City, New Jersey, where roommates save more per year ($13,000) than anywhere else in the country.

Here are the places seeing the biggest spikes in roommate growth:

1. Irvine, CA: 13.6%

2. Atlanta, GA: 59.5%

3. Raleigh, NC: 47.9%

4. Tampa, FL: 36.0%

5. San Diego, CA: 27.0%

6. Austin, TX: 39.9%

7. Denver, CO: 44.4%

8. Chandler, AZ: 74.6%

9. Nashville, TN: 58.6%

10. Colorado Springs, CO: 34.5%

My take

Think of roommate growth as an early signal of affordability stress. As housing costs outpace incomes, more renters are splitting costs — and increasingly doing it outside the usual gateway cities, in suburbs and fast-growing Sun Belt markets like Chandler, Nashville, and Raleigh. That's worth watching, because today's roommate market often hints at tomorrow's first-time buyer pipeline and how demand is shifting across neighborhoods. For agents, paying attention to demographic patterns like this isn't optional anymore — it's part of reading the market correctly. Ignore it, and you’re reading yesterday’s market.

States where home insurance costs more than property taxes

In 15 states, home insurance costs more than property taxes, with severe weather risk — wind, hail, hurricanes, and wildfires — driving much of the increase.

According to a new study from LendingTree, insurance makes up just 8.5% of the average homeowner's monthly housing costs nationwide, but in states like Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas that figure climbs to nearly 20%. 

But weather risk alone doesn't explain the disparity. 

For example, despite facing hurricanes and other severe weather risks, Hawaii has one of the nation's lowest insurance premiums, underscoring how much state regulation can influence what homeowners ultimately pay.

Here are the top 10 states where homeowners are paying more for home insurance than property taxes:

My take

This story matters because it flips the usual housing-affordability narrative. Everyone watches mortgage rates, but insurance costs can spike every year with no lock-in, and it's quietly become the bigger burden in over a dozen states. The Hawaii comparison is the real story, though: if regulation can keep premiums low even in a high-risk state, then this isn't purely a climate problem; it's a policy one — meaning the fix isn't just better roofs and higher deductibles, but state policy as well. Adjusting policy won’t eliminate the affordability squeeze, but it will help rein in home insurance costs.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• Use this to hone your skills as a negotiator

• Home prices are up in 232 major markets and down in 68 – See where yours is heading

• What you need to know about Google listings and the ongoing portal wars

• Stop buying leads: How agents can build a listing business they actually own

• Buying a foreclosed home: How a foreclosure sale works

Foundation Plans

Advice from James to win the day

This week on Rise Above the Ranks, I talked with one of my favorite people in the business, the one and only Glenda Baker. If you don't know her already, she's a 34-year Atlanta agent who posted her first TikTok at 54 and has since become one of the most recognizable faces in real estate.

We covered how she went from door-knocking and cold-calling FSBOs to building a following that treats her like family.

One theme came up over and over again: stop overthinking and start doing.

Glenda told me she used to take 25 takes trying to get a video perfect; now she just hits record and posts it. That's how she built one of the strongest personal brands in real estate: not by chasing virality, but by consistently creating content that educates, inspires, and helps people.

We also talked about why agents should build a brand that outlives any brokerage, why consumers care far less about industry drama than agents think, and how simply showing up consistently can separate you from 95% of the competition.

If you've been waiting for the perfect time to post more content, build your brand, or put yourself out there, watch this conversation. There are a lot of practical ideas you can put to work immediately.

Watch the full conversation here:

Breezy

Feature of the Week — Efficiency

Breezy runs alongside real estate agents throughout the day and acts as an AI personal assistant in real time.

At a high level, Breezy does these things:

• Captures and organizes conversations so no follow-up or detail gets lost

• Generates branded comps and reports on the fly, ready for clients

• Keeps your pipeline current automatically, without manual updating

• Reveals how you can reposition and develop your property through proprietary software we call Underbuilt

Instead of agents juggling spreadsheets, notes apps, CRM updates, and presentation tools, Breezy brings those workflows together.

Get Breezy here!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.” — Steve Jobs

Each day is a gift – a chance to live the life you want. Ruthlessly focus on your goals. Don’t let your past or the fear of being judged distract or paralyze you. Choose to live with an integrity that you can be proud of.

Have a wonderful weekend, and I’ll see you back here next Friday!

- James