Spring’s homebuying rally never arrived

10K

Since its official launch, 10,000 people have downloaded Breezy and joined the Breezy community.

Thank you, friends. None of this would have been possible without you. 

Seeing so many of you embrace it only motivates me to get it into more agents' hands. Breezy exists to handle the day-to-day stuff that falls through the cracks, so you can spend less time managing your business and more time growing it.

If you haven't tried it yet, it's completely free — download it here.

That brings me to today's Foundation Plans.

The Wall Street Journal recently published a piece about agents leaving the industry. It's a timely reminder that success in our business takes building the habits, systems, and a mindset to stay in the game long enough to win.

I know that lesson firsthand. When I started as a broke agent in London, I was far from an overnight success.

In today's issue, I share one of the biggest lessons that helped me stick with it when many others didn't.

- James

Spring is ending without a surge in homebuying

The spring homebuying season is ending, and the hoped-for buyer rally never came. 

Pending home sales fell 0.6% for the week ending June 7, marking the fourth consecutive weekly decline during a period when home sales typically reach their seasonal peak, according to realestatenews.com  

Here’s what they report:

• Mortgage rates moved higher: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.52%, up from 6.48% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac. A year ago, rates averaged 6.84%.

• Inventory growth has stalled: Potential sellers appear to be pulling back, leaving inventory essentially flat. Buyers still have leverage in many markets, but supply is no longer growing meaningfully.

• Applications rebounded after Memorial Day: Total mortgage applications rose 10.8% week over week, while purchase applications increased 7% and refinance applications jumped 15%.

• Affordability remains the biggest challenge: Despite more negotiating power and slower price growth, elevated home prices and mortgage rates continue to keep many buyers on the sidelines.

My take

The spring rally was always going to be a long shot. With inflation rising, wage growth slowing, and consumer confidence weakening, the conditions for a breakout simply weren't there. But a slow market isn't a dead one. Buyers still in the game are facing less competition and more negotiating power than they've had in years, and agents who help them capitalize on that advantage — through concessions, rate buydowns, and creative deal structures — can still get deals done.

The average U.S. home is now selling below the list price

The average home in the U.S. now sells for less than its asking price — and new data from Realtor.com shows exactly how quickly sellers lose leverage the longer a listing sits.

The first four weeks are the window that matters most. Here's what the numbers show:

• The national sale-to-list ratio has slipped below 1.0 — The typical home is now closing below its original asking price, a meaningful shift from the pandemic era when sellers routinely collected offers above list.

• Four weeks is the peak performance window — Homes that closed around the four-week mark sold for 1.8 percentage points above the monthly average — the best outcome at any point in the listing lifecycle. Top performers went under contract within the first two weeks.

• The longer it sits, the worse it gets — Homes still on the market at 18 weeks closed 1.3 points below the monthly average. More than 3 percentage points separate the best and worst timing outcomes.

• Price reductions now peak later than they used to — In 2021's hot market, price cuts peaked at week three. In 2026, that peak has shifted to week six — giving sellers a slightly longer runway before the market starts making the price decision for them.

• Property type and location shape the outcome significantly — Condos are the softest segment, averaging 97.9% of list price at sale compared to 99.2% for single-family homes. Regionally, the Northeast is the only market where the average home still closes above asking. The South and West remain firmly in buyer-friendly territory, with many Sun Belt metros now carrying more inventory than before the pandemic.

• The move-up segment has reversed sharply — The $750K–$2M range generated more bidding wars than the median in 2022 and is now among the weakest performers, with final sale prices falling the furthest below asking.

My take

The takeaway for sellers: pricing discipline in the first month matters more now than it has in years. Buyers have options, and overpriced homes aren't just sitting — they're losing ground. Every week a listing sits, the leverage shifts a little further toward the buyer, and by the time most sellers feel that, they've already missed the window where the market was working in their favor. In the Sun Belt especially, where inventory is back and buyers aren't competing the way they were, an overpriced home doesn't just attract fewer offers — it trains the market to wait you out.

What today's sellers actually expect from their agent

If you want to win more listings this year, start by understanding what sellers are actually thinking. Zillow's new seller research report - based on surveys of 7,400+ sellers - breaks down the latest data on motivations, expectations, and behaviors. Key findings: 62% of sellers hire the first agent they contact, 75% are more likely to hire an agent who offers virtual tours and interactive floor plans, and sellers' #1 priority from their agent is accurate pricing and local market expertise. In a market where listings are the lifeblood of your business, this intel can sharpen your pitch and help you stand out. Free, data-backed, and worth 15 minutes of your time.

States with the highest foreclosure starts in May

In May 2026, there were a total of 40,355 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings, down 5% from a month ago, but up 14% compared to last year.

While foreclosure activity has increased compared to last year, volumes remain well below historical norms. ATTOM’s latest report suggests that most homeowners continue to benefit from strong equity positions, helping limit distress despite elevated mortgage rates and rising ownership costs.

Here are the states with the most foreclosure starts in May:

1. Texas — 3,590 

2. Florida — 3,315 

3. California — 2,530 

4. Georgia — 1,161 

5. Illinois — 1,150

My take

Foreclosure activity remains elevated compared to last year, but there's still little evidence of a broad-based distress wave in the housing market. That's not the reason we wanted to bring this report to your attention. In slower markets, opportunities don't disappear—they shift. Distressed properties are one example. Motivated sellers still exist, investors are still buying, and deals are still getting done. When transaction volume is down, the agents who continue to thrive are often the ones who get more focused and look beyond traditional listings, not the ones who wait for conditions to improve.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cuts

• Google to serve up real estate listings nationwide 

• 8 closes from Alex Hormozi that work for real estate agents

• Use this to get ChatGPT to recommend you as an agent

• The states where people earn the most

• ResiClub’s webinar on how to use AI to create housing market content

Foundation Plans

Advice from James to win the day

The Wall Street Journal reports that agents are leaving the business in droves. Over the next few editions, I want to share what I believe will keep you from becoming one of them.

Here's what I know after years in this industry: success requires you to be very intentional. The habits you build and the systems you rely on determine how far you go — and so does the way you think. Mindset isn't a soft concept. It's a competitive edge.

Today, I want to share a few mindset changes that have made the biggest difference for me.

1. Discipline beats motivation – Motivation gets you started, but it fades. Systems keep you moving when you don’t feel like it, and those are often the days that matter most.

2. Failure is data, not defeat – Early in my career, I had to learn an important lesson: failure isn’t rejection — it’s feedback. The only way you grow and become more successful is through failure. When you fail, you learn. The key is separating a temporary setback from your identity. Study the mistake, adjust, and come back stronger. If you start thinking about failure as growth rather than defeat, you’ll return ten times better.

3. Think in years, not days – There are no shortcuts here. The strongest businesses are built through steady outreach, consistent follow-ups, and relationships that develop over time. If you're chasing quick wins, you're playing the wrong game.

4. Choose your environment carefully – The people around you matter more than you think. Winners surround themselves with people who challenge them and push them to improve. Spend time with people who are successful, who uplift you, and who aren’t afraid to tell you the truth. At the same time, filter out negativity and toxic influences. Success is contagious — but so is mediocrity.

5. Build systems that make consistency automatic – Deals are won and lost in the invisible work: tracking conversations, managing your pipeline, staying prepared. The best agents don't rely on willpower to stay organized — they build simple routines that keep them executing at a high level even on their worst days.

One final thought. 

For years, parts of my business were locked in — Mondays have always been my pipeline accountability day, no exceptions. But other parts were scattered across too many tools, too many places.

That frustration is what ultimately led me to build Breezy. 

If any of this resonates with you, I’d encourage you to check it out.

Because at the end of the day, success in this business — and in life — isn’t about luck. It’s about being intentional with how you think, how you work, and the systems you build around you.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.” — Steve Jobs

Each day is a gift – a chance to live the life you want. Ruthlessly focus on your goals. Don’t let your past or the fear of being judged distract or paralyze you. Choose to live with an integrity that you can be proud of.

Have a wonderful weekend, and I’ll see you back here next Friday!

- James