Pending home sales surge to the highest level since 2022

Keep your eye on the ball

What a rocky market we’re in right now, filled with both great news and serious headwinds.

On the one hand, pending home sales jumped nearly 10% from a year ago to the highest level since 2022. Yet, on the other hand, mortgage rates also spiked this week. As of today, the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 6.62%!

And while all that is going on, new wealth hubs and luxury markets are emerging in areas you would never think.

In markets like this, it’s easy to get distracted by the noise. That’s why great agents keep their eye on what actually matters: relationships, execution, and staying steady while everyone else reacts emotionally.

We, obviously, love it when the market is booming and the deals are easy. But we also love a challenge. It’s what separates genuine deal makers.

Let’s get into it.

- James

Pending home sales spike by nearly 10%

U.S. pending home sales jumped 9.6% year over year to their highest level since September 2022. Pending sales are rising in every major U.S. metro except three (Houston, Detroit, and Seattle), and mortgage-purchase applications are up 4% week over week. That’s according to Redfin’s latest market update. 

Here are the key takeaways they report:

• Buyer activity is accelerating across multiple indicators. Mortgage-purchase applications rose 4% week over week and are up 7% annually, while Google searches for “homes for sale” hit their highest level in nine months and touring activity is up 27% since the start of the year.

• Stronger demand is starting to push prices higher again. The median home-sale price climbed 2.2% year over year to $397,740, marking the second-largest annual increase in the past seven months.

• Inventory conditions may be shifting back toward sellers. New listings fell 1.6% year over year for the third straight week, while the supply of homes on the market sits at 3.5 months — still below the 4-to-5-month range typically considered balanced.

My take

This is all good news, and we welcome it wholeheartedly. But scroll down to our next story; a new challenge is emerging. We aren’t through the woods yet. Right now, it’s just not possible to say that everything is terrible or a full recovery is at hand. We’re in a market that’s changing week by week, and agents are going to have to stay sharp and adapt in real time. We’re not going to sugarcoat it: this is still a challenging market. But embrace it. Difficult markets are what separate the real deal makers from everyone else.

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Mortgage rates jump to the highest level since March

On Wednesday, a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report pushed bond yields higher, following an even larger market reaction to Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. According to CNBC, that pushed the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to its highest level since March. 

Here are the trends to know:

• Mortgage rates jumped sharply this week — The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.57% on Wednesday. Rates are now 15 basis points higher than last Friday and roughly 40 basis points above where they were in February. As of today, it is now 6.62%.

• Buyer activity had started improving before rates moved higher — Data from Sentrilock showed home showings in April rose 8% year over year, with all four U.S. regions seeing increases in activity as buyers slowly reentered the market.

• Affordability remains fragile despite improving supply conditions — ICE estimates buying power has fallen roughly 4% since February because of higher rates. At the same time, housing inventory is still running 11% to 12% below normal levels, keeping pressure on prices even as appreciation cools nationally.

My take

The housing market was finally starting to regain some momentum, but this week was a reminder of how sensitive everything still is to inflation and interest rates. Buyers were coming back as inventory improved and price growth cooled, yet one hot inflation report was enough to send mortgage rates right back toward the mid-6% range and immediately chip away at affordability again. That’s the challenge in today’s market: demand is there, but it remains extremely rate-sensitive. Until inflation cools more convincingly or rates stabilize for a longer stretch, every rebound in housing is likely to feel a bit fragile.

Top emerging luxury markets

Twelve markets across the South and West are emerging as up-and-coming luxury markets in the U.S. Luxury may not be the norm yet, but these markets are quietly becoming the nation’s newest wealth hubs. New construction is fueling much of the growth.

That’s according to realtor.com’s latest update on the country’s luxury housing market. 

To qualify as an emerging luxury market, realtor.com required each metro to average between 200 and 500 million-dollar-plus listings per month over the past year, with a median listing price still below $1 million and at least 10% of active listings priced at $1 million or above.

Here are the top emerging luxury markets:

My take

There are two different stories. Markets like Fayetteville, Provo, and Durham are being built into luxury destinations in real time — corporate campuses, universities, and tech corridors are drawing in high earners fast enough that builders can barely keep up. But further down the list, places like Hilton Head, Portland, and St. George are a different animal entirely — slower listing growth, but luxury runs deep, with over 20% of all active listings already carrying seven-figure price tags. And then there's Santa Fe, doing its own thing with a $2.7 million entry price and still posting 21% growth. The bottom line: While some of these markets were already established, others are just getting started, and truly are emerging wealth hubs. Agents will need to keep an eye on these.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cuts

• Here’s the reason certain real estate investors make more money than others

• Housing market forecast for the second half of 2026

• Make sure you know these things before using AI with homebuyers 

• Miami is getting richer, but its population is shrinking – here’s why

• Don’t make this mistake when farming an area

Foundation Plans

Advice from James to win the day

In mid-April, Breezy officially went live. But even before that, I’ve been sounding the bell about it since February. I genuinely believe that it’s a fantastic app that will truly help you in you in your business as an agent.

But I don’t want you to just take my word for it. I’d like for you to hear how others feel about it, too.

Recently, at the Social Summit in Miami, I had the chance to talk to Cory Evans. He’s an agent out of Orlando, Florida with Compass specializing in luxury, relocations, second homes, and vacation properties.

Right after my panel discussion, Cory came up to me buzzing with excitement — he'd just used Breezy's AI note-taking tool on the spot, in a real-world setting, in real time.

Honestly, seeing that made my day. It turned into a quick, impromptu five-minute conversation, and I think you'll find it worth your time.

Pay close attention to what Cory shares about how he uses Breezy to streamline his business — and don't skip the part about Underbuilt. I'll have more to say about that feature soon, but it's a genuine game-changer. You won't find anything like it anywhere else on the market.

Listen to the conversation here and, when you’re done, tell me what you think. You can also download Breezy for free here. 

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

"Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution."  – Attributed to Aristotle

Thanks for reading, friends. Excellence and success don’t happen by chance — they’re built through intention, focus, and consistent effort.

Have a wonderful weekend, and I’ll see you back here next Friday!

- James