Pending home sales surge to highest level in nearly 4 years

Have a bias toward action

The most dangerous place in real estate isn't a slow market — it's the planning phase that never ends.

A lot of agents aren't struggling because they lack knowledge. They're struggling because preparation has become a substitute for action. Reorganizing systems, refining messaging, waiting for the right moment — none of it moves the needle like consistent action.

The agents who win aren't the ones with the best strategy deck. They're the ones who execute consistently, even imperfectly, day after day.

In today's Foundation Plans, I sit down with Compass's President of Growth, Rory Golod, to talk about exactly this — the gap between knowing what to do and actually doing it.

- James

Pending home sales hit highest level since 2022

The spring housing market is finally showing some signs of life, but don’t call it a comeback yet. Pending home sales just hit their highest level since 2022, but conflicting economic data paints a muddled picture for both buyers and sellers.

Here are the key points to know:

• Pending sales are improving, but slowly: Pending home sales rose 7.7% year over year, the highest level since September 2022, while Compass says weekly pending sales are running 10% above last year.

• Mortgage rates remain the biggest obstacle: Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.37%, while Mortgage News Daily said rates briefly climbed as high as 6.56% this week.

• Affordability is improving unevenly: Zillow estimates monthly mortgage payments are down 3.4% year over year, but the average purchase loan size hit a record $467,300, signaling continued weakness among first-time buyers.

• Buyers are still highly selective: Active listings are up about 1% year over year, yet only 26.4% of homes are selling above asking price — the lowest share for this time of year in at least five years.

• Local market performance varies sharply: Pending sales jumped in Chicago (+19.2%), Miami (+15%), and Austin (+14.6%), while Houston (-9.3%) and Seattle (-2.7%) weakened. Dallas and Fort Worth also saw sharp declines in new listings.

My take

Pending sales hitting a three-year high sounds like good news, and it is — but the record average loan size of $467,300 tells you exactly who’s driving the market: move-up buyers with equity, not first-timers. Rates are still hovering near 6.5%, only one in four homes is selling above asking, and some markets like Houston are still weakening. The recovery is real, but it’s narrow, concentrated at the upper end of the market, and nowhere near broad enough to call a true turning point — yet.

What today's sellers actually expect from their agent

If you want to win more listings this year, start by understanding what sellers are actually thinking. Zillow's new seller research report - based on surveys of 7,400+ sellers - breaks down the latest data on motivations, expectations, and behaviors. Key findings: 62% of sellers hire the first agent they contact, 75% are more likely to hire an agent who offers virtual tours and interactive floor plans, and sellers' #1 priority from their agent is accurate pricing and local market expertise. In a market where listings are the lifeblood of your business, this intel can sharpen your pitch and help you stand out. Free, data-backed, and worth 15 minutes of your time.

Boomers control the market

Baby Boomers now make up 55% of all home sellers and 42% of buyers, according to NAR’s latest Generational Trends report. Although the industry often focuses on younger buyers, Boomers remain the dominant force shaping inventory, transaction flow, and long-term housing demand.

Here’s what else the report shows:

• Boomers dominate the seller side of the market: Younger Boomers (61–70) account for 34% of sellers, while Older Boomers (71–79) make up another 21%. Combined, Boomers represent more than half of all home sellers nationwide.

• Family, retirement, and lifestyle changes are driving decisions: 41% of Older Boomers say moving closer to family is the main reason they’re selling, while retirement is a key buying driver for 15% of Younger Boomers. Healthcare access and simplifying daily life are also major motivators.

• Boomers are relocating farther than most other groups: Younger Boomers are moving a median 45 miles from their previous home, while Older Boomers are moving 39 miles — well above the 20-mile median across all generations.

• Downsizing is happening, but often modestly: Older Boomers moving to downsize are typically going from 2,000 square feet to 1,900 square feet, while many are prioritizing convenience, walkability, one-story living, and lower-maintenance communities over sheer size.

• These are long-term housing decisions: More than half of Younger Boomers plan to stay in their next home for 16+ years, and 38% of Younger Boomers plus 39% of Older Boomers owned their previous homes for more than 21 years before selling.

My take

“Ok, Boomer” became a popular put-down for a while. We never liked it — it was both insulting and completely out of touch with reality. Boomers still control the housing market, accounting for more than half of all sellers and 42% of buyers, yet much of the industry continues to market as if younger buyers are the entire game. Meanwhile, many Boomer clients are making highly intentional moves tied to retirement, healthcare, downsizing, and proximity to family. That creates a real opening for agents willing to specialize in those transitions instead of fighting over the same crowded online lead channels everyone else is chasing.

The best luxury markets for buyers

Each quarter, Realtor.com and The Wall Street Journal rank the country’s top luxury housing markets based on factors such as supply and demand strength, economic health, and overall quality of life.

This quarter’s rankings showed a major shift toward smaller lifestyle-driven metros, where luxury buyers are prioritizing livability just as much as real estate fundamentals.

Here’s their list of the best luxury markets for buyers this spring, along with the list price for the top 10% of each metro:

1. Santa Fe, NM – $2.6M

2. Pittsfield, MA – $1.7M

3. Charlottesville, VA – $1.4M

4. Boulder, CO – $3.0M

5. San Jose, CA – $3.4M

6. Salt Lake City, UT – $1.2M

7. San Diego, CA – $2.8M

8. Santa Barbara, CA – $9.7M

9. Barnstable Town, MA – $3.7M

10. Hilton Head Island, SC – $1.9M

My take

One of the clearest themes in luxury real estate right now is that affluent buyers are prioritizing lifestyle as much as prestige. Markets like Santa Fe, Charlottesville, and Hilton Head are attracting buyers not because they’re the biggest or flashiest metros, but because they offer beauty, convenience, and a lower-stress way of life. That’s different from the ultra-luxury market, where buyers still pay enormous premiums for globally recognized trophy locations like Manhattan, Palm Beach, or Aspen. At the very top of the market, prestige still dominates. But for a growing share of affluent buyers below that tier, daily livability appears to matter more.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cuts

• eXp acquires NextHome and begins trading as AGNT

• ChatGPT has sent San Francisco real estate rocketing to insane levels — as the city eyes comeback

• Loan officers are urging clients to lock in their rate, stat. Here’s why, and for how long.

• Second homes are getting tax hikes in states across the US. But homeowners have found a genius loophole to avoid them.

• New construction prices have dropped to their lowest level in nearly five years. Check out how cheap a new house is right now.

Foundation Plans

Advice from James to win the day

A lot of agents get stuck in preparation mode — tweaking their strategy, consuming more content, waiting for the perfect time to act. But in real estate, momentum comes from execution, not overthinking.

In today’s episode of Rise Above the Ranks, I sit down with Compass’s President of Growth, Rory Golod, to talk about the gap between knowing and doing.

We discuss why most agents already know the fundamentals that drive business growth — prospecting, follow-up, relationship building, consistency — but still struggle to follow through consistently.

In our business, information isn’t usually the bottleneck. Consistent action is.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

"Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution."  – Attributed to Aristotle

Thanks for reading, friends. Excellence and success don’t happen by chance — they’re built through intention, focus, and consistent effort.

Have a wonderful weekend, and I’ll see you back here next Friday!

- James