Our take on the excellent inflation news

A steady hand

Buying or selling a home will always be emotional — it's one of the biggest financial and personal decisions most people ever make. That's not a problem to solve. It's exactly why they need you.

Right now, uncertainty has buyers and sellers on edge, questioning nearly every decision. Some are still anchored to the market of a few years ago. Others are frozen, waiting for mortgage rates to drop or a market that isn't coming back anytime soon. 

Your job isn't to talk them out of how they feel. It's to help them see clearly what's actually possible today, and make a good decision inside that reality.

That's the real value you bring: not removing the emotion, but standing next to it with facts, context, and a clear head. In a market like this one, that makes you more valuable than ever.

- David

Inflation comes in cooler than expected

US inflation cooled more than expected in June, with the headline CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month — the biggest one-month drop since April 2020 — bringing the annual rate down to 3.5%, from 4.2% in May. Falling gas prices were the biggest driver. 

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, eased to 2.6% annually, down from 2.9% in May.

Here are the other key takeaways to know:

• The miss was broad, not just gas. Forecasters had expected a 0.19% monthly decline overall and a 0.21% monthly increase in core — so this was an unusually large miss in both directions. Shelter, the biggest chunk of CPI, rose just 0.1% instead of its usual ~0.3%. Services overall were flat (0.0%) versus a recent average of 0.3%.

• Goods prices cooled too. Overall goods prices fell 0.1% monthly, and apparel — sensitive to both tariffs and energy costs — dropped 0.6%.

• Fed rate hike odds dropped sharply. Markets had priced in close to a 50% chance of a July 29 hike before the report; that's now considered unlikely given the data..

• One caveat: the PCE inflation data — the Fed's preferred gauge — comes out later this month, and could still land higher.

My take

This is genuinely good news, but it's fragile good news. The biggest driver behind the drop was falling gas prices, and that relief could be short-lived now that hostilities with Iran have flared back up. The Fed meets in two weeks, and this report makes a rate hike at that meeting very unlikely. Even so, most FOMC officials still expect to hold rates steady or raise them later this year, so a hike is still on the table down the road. For now, though, this buys the Fed some breathing room to wait and see.

Home sellers outnumber buyers 2 to 1

In June, there were an estimated 1.49 million home sellers in the market, up 0.4% month over month to the highest level since 2020. At the same time, there were roughly 1.00 million buyers, up 0.5% from the month before. Because both figures rose in tandem, the overall gap between buyers and sellers barely budged from May to June.

That’s according to Redfin’s latest market update. Here’s what else they report:

• Nationally, sellers outnumber buyers by 48.5% — down slightly from 48.7% in May, and well off the recent peak of 50.1% in December.

• Miami is the country's strongest buyer's market, with 140% more sellers than buyers, followed by Nashville (129%), Houston (124%), San Antonio (117%), and Austin (101%).

• 70% of major U.S. metros favor buyers — 33 of the 47 metros Redfin analyzed are buyer's markets, driven by high mortgage rates, affordability pressure, and a construction boom in Sun Belt cities.

• Only 7 metros are seller's markets, tied for the highest count in 10 months. Nassau County, NY leads (38% fewer sellers than buyers), followed by Milwaukee (-30%) and several Northeast metros.

• San Francisco is the lone West Coast seller's market, fueled largely by AI-industry buyers with strong incomes competing for limited inventory.

• Momentum is still shifting toward buyers in half the country — 16 of the 33 buyer's markets got even more buyer-friendly in June, led by Houston, Orlando, and Miami.

My take

This is still very much a buyer's market, but it's a tale of two Americas — the Sun Belt is drowning in inventory while the Northeast is squeezed tight. Nearly half a million more sellers than buyers nationally means leverage sits with anyone who can actually afford to buy right now, and that leverage is most pronounced in places like Miami, Houston, and Nashville, where years of overbuilding and affordability strain have piled up unsold homes. Meanwhile, tight-inventory holdouts like the Northeast and San Francisco show that low housing supply — whether from restrictive zoning or rate-locked homeowners who won't sell — can keep sellers in the driver's seat even when national conditions favor buyers everywhere else.

Metros with the highest home flipping profit margins

In Q1 2026, 64,348 homes were flipped nationwide, 8% of all sales, according to ATTOM. 

Although the total number of flips was down from last year’s 70K, profit margins actually improved, with the typical flip returning 25.4% gross profit, up from 24.7% last quarter. In fact, margins rose in a majority of metros too — 55.2% of the 174 markets ATTOM tracked.

Here are the metros that had the highest home flipping profit margins in Gross ROI:

1. Spartanburg, SC – 114.6%

2. Flint, MI – 112.1%

3. Shreveport, LA – 104.1%

4. Reading, PA – 95.9%

5. Lancaster, PA – 89.9%

6. Pittsburgh, PA – 85.9%

7. Pensacola, FL – 85.3%

8. Buffalo, NY – 84.0%

9. Scranton, PA – 83.6%

10. Peoria, IL – 78.1%

My take

Despite elevated prices, high borrowing costs, and thinner margins, home flipping made up a larger share of all home sales in Q1 2026 than in Q4 last year: rising from 7.2% to 8%. Experienced investors didn't wait for perfect conditions; they kept working while others sat still. That's a lesson to learn: every market has people who need to transact regardless of how "good" it looks, and your job is to find them and become the agent who understands them better than anyone else — their problems, their motivations, what keeps them up at night. Do that, and you're not chasing a market that ebbs and flows. You're building a client base that transacts no matter what.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• Ranked: the best real estate software for agents and teams by HousingWire

• Serhant used this follow-up strategy to close a $16M deal after five years of silence

• Most agents lose listings before they sell — here’s how to prevent that

• These are the 10 cheapest states where you can still beat inflation

• The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act is law — here's its impact on housing

Foundation Plans

Advice from David to win the day

For most realtors, more than a quarter of their business will come from referrals, both from clients and other agents. Here are three tips on how to broaden and deepen your referral network with agents:

Use the power of referral fees - This incentivizes agents from feeder markets to send you valuable referrals. Make sure you spread the word. Connect and communicate with agents in these markets and create mutually beneficial partnerships. Watch one of our colleagues as he expertly does this on IG. 

Farm agents for referrals - Real estate is a people business. Strategically target and connect with agents who specialize in your market. Make sure you establish yourself as a resourceful referral partner among these agents, whether it’s through your marketing materials, the way you carry yourself, or your market knowledge. This will lead to a continuous influx of referrals. 

Make sure you follow up - After receiving a referral, make sure to follow up with a phone call. Nurture these leads effectively and build strong relationships with referring agents. This will help guarantee that you’ll get more business from them in the long run.

If you want further advice on how to make referrals part of your toolkit, watch this to start upping your game.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“You’ve gotta keep control of your time, and you can’t unless you say no. You can’t let people set your agenda in life.” — Warren Buffett

Don’t let events or other people set your agenda. Stay ruthlessly focused on your goals — your time is limited, and you only get one life. Make the most of it.

Have a wonderful week. We’ll see you back here on Friday!

- David