More than half of single-family investors plan to buy in the next 12 months

Control what you can

In our ever-changing business, that’s one of our go-to pieces of advice: control what you can control.

Today’s newsletter is about exactly that: understanding what’s changing in the market and knowing how to adjust.

We give you our reaction to what the Fed did today and explain why investors should be a bigger part of your client strategy. With many traditional buyers still hesitant to make a move, investors could become an increasingly important source of deals.

Then, in today’s Foundation Plans, we focus on one of the best ways to take control of your business: know your numbers. We break down the key metrics you should be tracking to understand exactly where your business stands — and where it needs to go.

- David

The Fed hikes interest rates by a quarter point 

The Federal Reserve did it. At its meeting today, the Fed hiked interest rates a quarter point to 3.75 to 4%. This is the highest interest rate since late 2025. More importantly, the vote to hike was unanimous: 12 - 0. 

Here are the key facts to know:

• More hikes likely. 16 of 18 officials project another hike this year, to just above 4%.

• Energy, not AI, is the driver. Crude oil is near $100/barrel, but diesel is trading as if oil were $200/barrel amid a refining bottleneck.

• Mortgages staying high. 30-year rate hit ~7% last week, up from 6% in February.

• Housing under strain. Sales volume declining year-over-year, Zillow says, as rates squeeze the market.

• A "lost year" on inflation. No progress toward 2% target since mid-2025, despite 3 cuts last year.

My take

As we predicted last week, the Fed raised interest rates today. We won’t sugarcoat it. The higher fed funds rate stings right now. It's landing on a housing market that's already cooling, with sales volume slipping year-over-year from a low base, and it'll likely make for a rough end to the year. But in the long term, we believe this is a good decision. The market needs to believe the Fed is serious about fighting inflation before long-term yields — the ones that actually drive mortgage rates — start coming down on their own. So the real question isn't whether this hike hurts (it will); it's whether the Fed has done enough to convince bond investors it means it, because that's the only thing that gets the housing recovery back on track.

More than half of single-family investors are planning to buy in the next 12 months

55.5% of single-family investors say they're "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to buy another investment property in the next 12 months. That's still a majority — but it's down sharply from 68.3% just one quarter earlier, and the lowest reading since we started this survey two years ago. 

That’s according to ResiClub and LendingOne’s survey of 216 single-family investors/landlords conducted between August 17 and September 14, 2026.

Here are the main takeaways:

• Rate expectations rise: 65% now expect 30-year rates to stay above 6.5% over the next year, up sharply from 11% in Q4 2025.

• Buying caution grows: 44% say they're unlikely to buy another property in the next 12 months — the highest share in the survey's two-year history, up from 32% last quarter.

• Activity mostly holding steady: 56% plan to keep investment activity flat in 2027; 29% plan to grow it, 15% to pull back.

• Selling intent dips: 37% expect to sell at least one property in the next year, down slightly from 43% in Q4 2025.

• Insurance costs bite: 84% say rising insurance premiums hurt their cash flow over the past year.

• Rent hikes stay modest: 59% plan to raise rents, mostly by just 1–3% (31%); only 1% expect hikes above 7%.

My take

This survey matters a lot because it shows who's actually willing to transact in today's market. Regular homebuyers are sitting on their hands. Redfin just confirmed August was the strongest buyer's market on record, with sellers outnumbering buyers by 58%, yet elevated mortgage rates are keeping most house hunters on the sidelines. Investors are different: even as caution creeps in, 55.5% still plan to buy at least one property in the next 12 months, because they're better equipped to absorb high financing costs than the typical buyer. If you're an agent looking to get deals done in 2027, this is the group to court.

The biggest sales in the country so far this year 

Luxury real estate in 2026 has already seen some staggering deals, with trophy properties trading hands at eye-popping prices across the country. From a $170 million Indian Creek Island estate in Florida to the $110 million Bellagio Rd. sale in Los Angeles, the year’s top transactions highlight the strength of ultra-luxury demand in select markets. 

The geography is just as striking as the prices. Nine of the 10 biggest sales occurred in Florida or California, including six in Florida alone. And every property on the list sold for more than $55 million.

Here’s a look at the most expensive sales so far this year:

1. 7 Indian Creek Island Rd., Indian Creek, FL 33154: Sold for $170 million in March

2. 10644 Bellagio Rd., Los Angeles, CA 90077: Sold for $130 million in July 

3. 2500 E. Maya Palm Dr., Boca Raton, FL 33432: Sold for $75 million in May

4. 1660 S. Ocean Blvd., Manalapan, FL 33462: Sold for $70.9 million in June

5. 3000 Ralston Ave., Hillsborough, CA 94010: Sold for $70 million in August

6. 1940 S. Ocean Blvd., Manalapan, FL 33462: Sold for $68.3 million in February

7. 820 S Ocean Blvd., Manalapan, FL 33462: Sold for $62.5 million in May 

8. 2910 Sycamore Canyon Rd., Montecito, CA 93108: Sold for $59.9 million in April

9. 70 Vestry St Unit PHS, New York City, NY 10013: Sold for $57 million in February 

10. 1610 N. Ocean Blvd., Palm Beach, FL 33480: Sold for $55.2 million in April

My take

For us agents, these record deals are a reminder that ultra-luxury buyers play by a different set of rules. At this level, financing costs and market headwinds are secondary. What matters most is access to one-of-a-kind properties, exclusive enclaves, and lifestyle cachet. Florida and California continue to dominate despite climate and insurance risks, underscoring the power of brand-name locations. To win in this space, agents should craft narratives around pedigree, privacy, and prestige. In the luxury market, perception often carries as much weight as square footage.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• Is the Midwest getting frothy?

• How to talk to sellers who say that they “want to wait”

• Do data centers hurt home values? NAR data shows a split picture

• Homebuilding loses ground, as permitting slips to a post-pandemic low

• How agent Jordan Karp started a brokerage at 26 and is nearing $1B in deals

Foundation Plans

Advice from David to win the day

With the Fed moving on interest rates today — and more rate hikes coming in the months ahead — agents need to be ready to adjust. Sellers are likely to become more reluctant to list, and buyers could grow even more hesitant to make a move as mortgage rates remain elevated.

And there’s another factor to consider: We’re just 71 days from Thanksgiving.

That means it’s time to focus like a laser on finishing the year strong and putting yourself in position to win in 2027. So today, we’re kicking off our Prep for 2027 series.

We’re starting with something fundamental: Know your numbers.

You should always know exactly where you stand in your business. Tracking the right metrics tells you what’s working, what isn’t, and where you need to adjust before a small problem becomes a big one.  

Year-over-year production – Compare where you are today with where you were at this point last year. Track transactions, sales volume, GCI, and whatever other numbers matter to your business. Are you ahead or behind? And, more importantly, why? Knowing that gives you time to adjust before the year is over.

Active and future listings – Listings are king in real estate. Know what you have on the market today and what you expect to bring to market over the next 30, 60, and 90 days. Your future listing pipeline is one of the clearest indicators of where your business is headed — and whether you need to step up your prospecting now.

Conversion rate – Know how effectively you're turning leads into actual business. Track how many leads become conversations, appointments, signed clients, and ultimately closed transactions. If you're losing people somewhere along the way, you need to know where. That tells you exactly which part of your sales process needs work.

Lead flow – We’ll say this till we’re blue in the face: Never let your pipeline go dry. Track how many leads you’re generating, where they’re coming from, and which sources actually turn into business. If referrals are converting and paid leads aren’t, you should know that. Your time and money should be going toward what actually produces results.

You can't manage what you don't measure. And you shouldn't wait until December to discover that you're behind.

Know your numbers now, make the necessary adjustments, and use these final months of 2026 to build momentum heading into 2027.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“You’ve gotta keep control of your time, and you can’t unless you say no. You can’t let people set your agenda in life.” — Warren Buffett

Don’t let events or other people set your agenda. Stay ruthlessly focused on your goals — your time is limited, and you only get one life. Make the most of it. Have a wonderful week.

We’ll see you back here on Friday!

- David