Inflation surged in May

K.I.S.S.

We love the K.I.S.S. principle: Keep It Simple, Stupid.

The idea is straightforward: the best systems are often the simplest. They’re easier to understand, easier to execute, and easier to repeat.

As we noted in our podcast with him, few agents embody that philosophy better than Chris Heller. He sold more than 100 homes a year for over two decades and became the top Keller Williams associate in North America.  

In today’s edition, as part of our Keep Your Eye on the Ball series, we’re highlighting how you can adapt and implement his prospecting methods to grow your own business as an agent.

- David

Inflation surged in May

U.S. headline CPI rose 0.5% month over month and 4.2% year over year, the highest annual inflation rate since 2023. Core CPI – which excludes food and energy prices – rose 0.2% on the month and 2.9% from a year ago.

Here are the key takeaways to know:

• Headline inflation moved above 4% for the first time since May 2023, when the Fed was still aggressively raising interest rates. Inflation stood at 2.4% in February before the war began, with much of the recent increase driven by higher energy prices.

• Core inflation cooled from a 0.4% monthly increase last month to 0.2% this month. The slowdown was widely expected because last month's reading was boosted by a temporary jump in housing inflation tied to data collection disruptions during the government shutdown.

• Prices for computer software and accessories, which had surged 4% to 5% per month during the recent AI-driven boom, were flat in the latest report of 2%.

My take

Unsurprisingly, the headline CPI number is getting all the attention, but overall, the report was largely in line with expectations given the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed will welcome the stabilization in core inflation, but the data also suggests inflation remains stubbornly above its 2% target. It is unlikely that the Fed will either cut or raise interest rates at its meeting next week, but if readings like this persist, don’t be surprised by at least one rate hike later this year.

The latest mortgage forecasts

If you're waiting for mortgage rates to fall below 6%, you may be waiting a while.

According to ResiClub's review of the latest forecasts from Fannie Mae, Wells Fargo, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), expect mortgage rates to remain elevated through at least the end of next year.  

Here's where each firm expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to be by Q4 2027:

• Fannie Mae: 6.2%

• Wells Fargo: 6.2%

• MBA: 6.5%

For context:

• Since 1972, the average annual swing in mortgage rates has been 1.40 percentage points.

• Since 2001, the average annual swing has been 1.08 percentage points.

• In 2025, the spread between the year's highest and lowest weekly mortgage-rate readings was 0.87 percentage points.

My take

When reading these forecasts, it’s important to keep in mind that these are quarterly averages, not ceilings or floors. Weekly rates can move substantially around those averages. But the broader message is clear: don't expect a return to the ultra-low mortgage-rate environment anytime soon. Buyers still mentally anchored to pandemic-era rates aren't just being patient — they're sitting out a market that has moved on without them. Agents have a real job to do here: not just delivering that reality once, but reinforcing it repeatedly until it actually lands.

States that are banning private listings

In the ongoing listing wars, state governments aren’t sitting on the sidelines.

According to real estate reporter Sarah Lentz, three states have moved to ban or restrict private listings in 2026, while others are considering similar legislation.

In March, Washington Governor Bob Ferguson signed a bill prohibiting brokers from marketing a listing to an exclusive group unless it is also marketed to the general public. The law takes effect June 11, 2026.

Here are the states that have enacted or are considering restrictions on private listings:

• Washington: Ban signed into law; effective June 11, 2026

• Connecticut: SB 340 signed by the governor on May 27; effective October 1, 2026

• New York: Fair and Transparent Real Estate Listing Act passed the state Senate 60-0; awaits Gov. Hochul’s signature

• Illinois: Similar legislation proposed

• Hawaii: Similar legislation proposed

My take

We suspect this is only the beginning. As the debate over private listings intensifies, more states are likely to step in with disclosure requirements, restrictions, or outright bans. For agents, the key issue isn't just whether private listings are allowed: it's understanding the rules that govern them. Many of these laws include seller opt-out provisions. For example, in Connecticut, sellers can still choose a private listing, but only after signing a standardized disclosure form explaining the potential trade-offs, including reduced exposure and fewer competing offers. Violations can carry fines of up to $5,000 and even license suspension. As we’ve said before, how the listing wars get resolved will be more consequential to the industry’s future than the Sitzer/Burnett case.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• Agents, get rid of these habits – they’re costing you deals right now

• Buyers have the biggest advantage in Sun Belt cities

• Here’s why AI isn’t recommending you

• Housing demand stays positive even with mortgage rates near 2026 highs

• These are the luxury boomtowns that never went bust

Foundation Plans

Advice from David to win the day

Last week, in Part 3 of our Keep Your Eye on the Ball series, we talked about using webinars to prospect for clients. But one thing we've learned over the years is that successful agents rarely rely on just one lead-generation strategy.

They use everything: Social media. Technology. Direct mail. Door-knocking. Open houses. Cold calls.

That's why Chris Heller's recent content caught our attention.

Chris isn't just a former CEO of Keller Williams. He's also sold more than 100 homes every year for over 20 years and became the top Keller Williams associate in North America. In other words, he's not teaching theory — he's teaching what worked in the field.

Recently, Chris has been sharing the exact strategies that helped build his business. What stood out to us isn't that the tactics are complicated. It's the opposite. They're simple, disciplined, and built around consistent execution.

That's an important reminder in an industry constantly chasing the next marketing trend. The fundamentals still work. Whether you're a brand-new agent or a seasoned veteran, there's a lot to learn from how Chris approaches prospecting.

There's a reason he's been producing at a high level for decades. Start here:

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“You’ve gotta keep control of your time, and you can’t unless you say no. You can’t let people set your agenda in life.” — Warren Buffett

Don’t let events or other people set your agenda. Stay ruthlessly focused on your goals — your time is limited, and you only get one life. Make the most of it.

Have a wonderful week. We’ll see you back here on Friday!

- David