Housing demand is up, even with all the turmoil

Surprisingly resilient

With everything happening in the world right now, you might expect the housing market to be slowing down. Instead, it’s holding up surprisingly well. Pending sales are up 4.2% year over year — the biggest jump in 15 months — and cancellation rates are declining both month over month and year over year.

Below, we break down the numbers and highlight where the market is showing the most strength — and where things are softer.

Also, tax season is coming up. For many agents, it’s a stressful time. But it doesn’t have to be. In today’s Foundation Plans, we walk through a few ways agents can turn tax season from a headache into an opportunity to keep more of what they earn.

Let’s dive in.

- David

Housing demand is up even with Iran conflict

Even as the war in Iran enters its second week and oil prices spike, housing demand has been surprisingly stable. Weekly pending sales reached 66,127, up from 63,508 last year, marking three straight weeks of year-over-year growth. That’s according to HousingWire’s latest market update.

Here are the key takeaways:

• Purchase applications strengthening: Mortgage purchase applications rose 10% year over year and 6.1% week over week, signaling stronger sales activity likely 30–90 days ahead.

• Mortgage rates remain stable: Rates ended the week around 6.14%, staying within the expected 5.75%–6.75% range, despite market volatility tied to the Iran conflict and rising oil prices.

• Inventory dips slightly: National single-family inventory declined to 686,879, though it remains about 6.9% higher than a year ago.

• New listings still below normal levels: New listings rose week over week but remain lower than last year, with 61,710 listings compared to 63,870 in 2025. During peak months, listings are expected to rise toward 80,000–100,000 per week, still on the low end of what was typical from 2013-2019

• Fewer price cuts: The share of homes with price reductions fell to 32.7%, down from 34% last year, reflecting modestly improving demand as rates remain relatively low.

My take

Surprisingly, housing demand is starting to quietly improve. Pending sales are up year over year, purchase applications are running about 10% higher than last year, and mortgage rates holding near 6% are helping bring buyers back into the market. At the same time, new listings are still relatively limited compared with normal pre-2020 levels, so inventory hasn’t fully caught up to demand yet. That kind of setup can create a steady stream of deals for agents working with motivated buyers and sellers. The one thing to keep an eye on is the broader economy. If energy prices spike and push inflation higher, it could quickly push mortgage rates up and cool demand.

The exurban housing bargain is fading

Across the nine largest U.S. metros, exurban homes are still cheaper: about $85,000 less on average. But in many major markets, that price advantage is starting to shrink.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Atlanta is the clearest example. Home prices in its exurbs have risen so quickly that they’re on track to surpass prices in the city itself—a reversal of the traditional “drive farther for cheaper housing” trade-off.

Here is the price gap between median home prices in the top metros with exurbs, from smallest to largest:

1. Atlanta: $3,938

2. Houston: $12,000

3. Philadelphia: $20,000

4. Chicago: $20,000

5. Washington, DC: $24,000

6. Dallas: $25,000

7. Boston: $40,000

8. New York: $260,000

9. Los Angeles: $360,010

My take

For years, buyers could move farther from the city and count on finding cheaper homes. That trade-off is starting to break down in some markets. Demand for larger homes, strong population growth in peripheral counties, and the rise of job centers outside traditional downtowns are pushing exurban prices closer to city levels. Atlanta is the clearest example right now, but the broader trend is worth watching. If exurbs stop being the affordable alternative, it could reshape where buyers look for value, and how agents think about opportunity across the metro.

Top housing markets where deals are most likely to close

The housing market is surprisingly resilient. The national contract cancellation rate fell to 7.2% in February, down from 7.6% in January and 7.4% a year ago, while pending home sales rose 4.2% year over year, the largest increase in 15 months. Despite economic uncertainty, most buyers who go under contract are still following through with their purchases.

Here are the top 10 metros where home deals were least likely to fall through in February, ordered by cancellation rate:

1. New York City: 2.7%

2. Buffalo: 2.9%

3. Raleigh: 3.4%

4. San Jose: 3.4%

5. San Francisco: 3.6%

6. Virginia Beach: 3.7%

7. Hartford: 4.3%

8. Richmond: 4.3%

9. Philadelphia: 4.5%

10. Minneapolis: 4.6%

My take

Even with shaky consumer confidence and broader economic uncertainty, most buyers who go under contract are still sticking with the deal. In wealthier markets like New York and San Jose, strong buyer finances and large deposits help keep transactions on track. In tighter markets with limited inventory, buyers are often reluctant to walk away after finally getting an offer accepted. Once a deal goes under contract, the odds of reaching the closing table remain strong. Together, these forces are helping keep cancellation rates relatively stable – for now.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• How will rising oil prices impact the U.S. housing market

• 81% of sellers interview just one agent before they choose their listing agent

• Home sales off to a slow start in March as Iran war unfolds

• NYC’s property tax threat just got real

• No one wants to buy Alec Baldwin’s Hamptons mansion

Foundation Plans

Advice from David to win the day

Tax time is a month away! For a lot of agents, navigating self-employment taxes is incredibly stressful, but it doesn't have to be. The difference between agents who dread April and those who treat taxes like a routine business task usually comes down to systems and habits. The agents who stay organized, structure their business properly, and plan throughout the year consistently keep more of what they earn.

Today, we want to offer you some tips on how to maximize your return and prevent tax season from being a source of stress for you.

1. Don’t DIY your taxes – Self-employed tax filings are complex, and experts estimate more than 90% of DIY returns miss deductions or opportunities, leaving money on the table. In fact, some estimates suggest self-employed professionals overpay by roughly $8,400 per year when they handle taxes themselves.

2. Treat taxes like a monthly bill, not an annual surprise – A simple habit – automatically setting aside around 20% of every commission check into a dedicated tax account – can eliminate the stress of a large April payment and keep you from scrambling for cash.

3. Make sure your entity structure works for you –  Many agents operate as sole proprietors, but shifting to an LLC or potentially an S-Corp can provide liability protection and significant tax advantages depending on your income level.

4. Use retirement contributions to lower your tax bill – Contributions to retirement accounts can directly reduce your taxable income, turning long-term savings into a powerful tax strategy. If you haven’t done so, consider starting a traditional/Roth IRA or a self-directed IRA. 

5. Know your deductions, but don’t overspend chasing them – Legitimate expenses like mileage, car maintenance, office equipment, and a dedicated work phone can reduce your tax liability. But remember: just because something is deductible doesn’t mean it’s a smart business expense.

The takeaway is simple: agents who treat their business finances with intention – separating accounts, tracking expenses, and planning ahead – turn tax season from a headache into another opportunity to keep more of what they earn.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“The distance between dreams and reality is called discipline.” — Paulo Coelho

Strive to make your dreams come true friends. Your dreams become a reality not when you ruminate or talk about them but when you take consistent action.

Thanks for reading. Have a wonderful week. We’ll see you back here on Friday!

- David