Home prices aren't crashing: They grew in 78% of U.S. metros

Don’t stop when you’re winning 

I’d like to leave you with a thought before we head into the weekend. 

The easiest time to take your foot off the gas is when everything is going your way.

Jeremy Davis, one of the best sales coaches in the industry, reminded me of this recently.

He told me about a real estate agent he once watched make cold calls. This guy closes about 150 homes a year, and he'd just landed seven listings in a single day. Jeremy figured he'd book a trip to Hawaii and never see him again.

Nope. The next morning, he was back in the office at 7:30 a.m., making calls.

That's when it clicked for Jeremy.

Sales rewards consistency more than anything else. It's a cyclical business. It doesn't matter how good you are. Eventually, the wave you're riding is going to crash. And you've gotta find the next one.

So when you close that big deal, don't book the trip to Hawaii (yet)!

Get your ass back into the office and work even harder. Because you're on a run.

Don't stop when you're winning. Stay hungry.

- James

Home prices grew in 78% of metros in the country

Home prices climbed year over year in 78% of U.S. metro areas in the third quarter of 2026, according to NAR’s latest update. That’s a slight cooldown from 80% in the second quarter, but prices are still setting records in most of the country, even as affordability keeps pressure on buyers.

Here are the key points to know:

• Price growth cooled slightly. The national median hit $432,900, up 1.7% year over year. 21% of metros saw declines.

• The Northeast and Midwest led. Prices rose 4.0% in the Northeast and 3.6% in the Midwest. The West dipped 0.6%.

• Smaller markets saw the biggest jumps. Gulfport-Biloxi, Mississippi, led with an 11.0% gain.

• California remains the priciest. San Jose topped the list at a $1.92 million median.

• Payments keep rising. The typical monthly payment reached $2,251, up $69 from last year.

• Owners have built strong equity. The average home gained $146,000 in value over seven years.

My take

Home prices are still rising, but the more interesting story is where. Some of the biggest gains are happening in smaller, more affordable markets like Gulfport, Rochester, and Grand Rapids, while expensive markets like San Jose and Los Angeles are losing momentum. That suggests affordability is increasingly shaping where buyers look. There's also some encouraging news: monthly mortgage payments are up $69 from last year, but they're taking a smaller share of household income. That's hardly a solution to the affordability problem, but it suggests incomes are beginning to catch up. The housing market isn't cracking. It's slowly finding a new balance.

Housing market could get a small lift from October’s jobs surprise

The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, nearly triple the 59,000 forecasters expected. The strong report makes a December Fed rate hike more likely, but it could also bring a bit more activity to a sluggish housing market.

Here are the key takeaways:

• Hiring beat expectations: The 165,000 new jobs were well above forecasts, and unemployment dipped to 4.1%.

• Wages still trail inflation: Annual wage growth held at 3.1%, below September’s 3.7% inflation rate.

• Residential construction is struggling: The sector lost 16,400 jobs in October, its biggest monthly drop since March 2021. Nonresidential construction, helped by data center projects, gained 13,300 jobs.

• A December hike looks likely: CME Group’s FedWatch tool put the odds at about 79.1% on Nov. 6, up from 66.9% the day before.

• Mortgage rates are easing but still high: The 30-year fixed rate averages around 7.18%, down from a mid-October peak near 7.4%. The relief comes as the housing market enters its slowest season.

• Jobs data cuts both ways for housing: Economists say more jobs mean more income and more reasons to move, but a stronger economy could delay rate relief. They see the Iran War’s effect on inflation and mortgage rates as the biggest wildcard.

My take

October’s jobs report is good news for housing, but don’t expect a buying boom just yet. More jobs mean more potential buyers, and that’s always welcome news for agents. But mortgage rates are still the big question. Even if the Fed raises rates in December, mortgage rates could fall if yields on long-term Treasuries come down. That would give buyers some much-needed breathing room. For now, stronger hiring could give the market a small boost, but a real recovery will take more than a good jobs report. Buyers need some relief on affordability, too.

Highest-performing and most attractive luxury markets in the country

Each quarter, Realtor.com and the Wall Street Journal join forces to identify the highest-performing and most attractive metro areas for buying a luxury home.  

They rank 60 different luxury housing markets across the country based on factors such as supply and demand strength, economic health, and quality of life.

Here are the top 10 metros that make their rankings:

1. St. Louis, MO

2. Charlottesville, VA

3. Portland, ME

4. Bridgeport, CT

5. Pittsfield, MA

6. Detroit, MI

7. Salt Lake City, UT

8. San Diego, CA

9. Provo, UT

10. Atlanta, GA

My take

Luxury housing is itself a tale of two markets. At the very top, the priciest 1% of homes trade on prestige and scarcity, often to buyers who don't need financing. But the broader luxury market, defined as the top 10% of listings, is different. Here, luxury can mean a $670,000 home in St. Louis or a $930,000 home in Atlanta, and buyers are more focused on value. That helps explain why markets with strong employment, steady demand, and low climate risk rose in the rankings, while lifestyle favorites like Boulder and Santa Barbara slipped. The takeaway for agents: not all luxury buyers are alike, so know which market your client is shopping in before you make your pitch.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• 6 real ways to get a 6% mortgage rate in 2027

• Ranked: the best banks for real estate investors

• Serhant’s first years as an agent were difficult – this was the turning point

• Listing appointment scripts top agents use from first call to signed agreement

• 5 AI prompts every agent needs to know

Foundation Plans

Advice from James to win the day

When you study any craft, business, or enterprise, it’s important to study both what drives success and what drives failure. As part of our Prep for ‘27 series, I dive into the most common reasons agents don’t succeed in the industry. 

In today’s edition, I cover four reasons. We’ll then conclude this two-part mini-series by covering the final four reasons in next Friday’s edition. Let’s jump in. 

1. Lack of commitment – There is a saying we often use to communicate this idea. You can’t be half-pregnant. You either are or aren’t. The same is true with real estate. Being an agent is extremely competitive. You have to dedicate yourself to this craft. Live and breathe real estate. You’ve gotta be all in. It’s too easy to quit when the going gets tough. 

2. Lack of strategic thinking –  Be a wealth of information, but be strategic in how you communicate it. Listen to your clients and answer the questions they are asking. Be responsive to them. Not everything you know needs to be shared with them. Your goal is not to be Google. Your goal is to customize information for your clients. Know everything you can about real estate – all the key terms, trends, price fluctuations, comps, etc. – but tailor it to their specific needs and wants. Don’t bullshit, be real. People can tell the difference. 

3. Fear of failure – For us, success is failure turned inside out. We’re not telling you to intentionally make mistakes; instead, don’t let the fear of making mistakes debilitate you from taking action. For example, we often have agents ask us many questions about door-knocking. After a few weeks have passed, they’ll ask us more questions about door-knocking. In the meantime, they’ve not knocked on even one door! Their fear of rejection and making mistakes completely prevents them from taking action. In this business, not everyone will like you or want your services. Many will reject you. But many will also appreciate your efforts, and you’ll become a success because of it. Don’t let the fear and pain of rejection prevent you from achieving your dreams. The rejections and the mistakes are part of the process.  

4. Having no good role models –  Surround yourself with successful and inspiring people. Success breeds success. You don’t have to be like everybody. Some people’s style won’t be true to who you are. Find mentors that you align with and that speak to you. Learn from them and adapt their strategies to your business. Without being self-doubtful and unconfident, remain humble and teachable. 

We encourage you to be like Kobe Bryant in this regard. He was constantly learning and improving his game. Be aware of your limitations, but don’t be limited by them. Learn what you have to do to overcome those limitations to achieve the goals you want. 

Study, learn, and apply the lessons of those who have come before you and have succeeded in this game.

Breezy

Feature of the Week — Efficiency

Breezy runs alongside real estate agents throughout the day and acts as an AI personal assistant in real time.

At a high level, Breezy does these things:

• Captures and organizes conversations so no follow-up or detail gets lost

• Generates branded comps and reports on the fly, ready for clients

• Keeps your pipeline current automatically, without manual updating

• Reveals how you can reposition and develop your property through proprietary software we call Underbuilt

Instead of agents juggling spreadsheets, notes apps, CRM updates, and presentation tools, Breezy brings those workflows together.

Get Breezy here!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.” — Steve Jobs

Each day is a gift – a chance to live the life you want. Ruthlessly focus on your goals. Don’t let your past or the fear of being judged distract or paralyze you. Choose to live with an integrity that you can be proud of.

Have a wonderful weekend, and I’ll see you back here next Friday!

- James