Home price growth just hit a 10-month high

Grazie!

In 2025, I had the privilege of representing incredible clients across more than $900 million in closed sales. As a result, RealTrends recognized me as the #6 individual agent in the nation and #3 in California by sales volume.

None of that happens alone. To my clients, thank you for your trust. To my colleagues at Carolwood Estates — thank you for your partnership and support. And to everyone who's been part of this journey — thank you, truly.

As a way of giving back, I'm starting something new. 

Beginning with today's Foundation Plans, I'll be sharing the principles, habits, and lessons that have shaped my career and helped me build my business. 

I hope they help you build yours, too.

- David

Home prices hit fastest growth pace in 10 months

Nationwide, home prices rose 0.3% in June — tying May for the fastest pace since January. And, compared to last year, home prices rose 3%. According to Redfin, that’s the fastest annual growth in 10 months. 

Here are the key data points from Redfin’s update:

• Month-over-month, prices climbed in 30 of the 49 major metros analyzed; Columbus (+1.2%), Miami (+1.1%), and Cincinnati (+1%) led the gains.

• Nineteen metros saw month-over-month declines, but the steeper story is annual: San Antonio (-2.7%), Jacksonville, Austin, Dallas, and Phoenix posted the biggest year-over-year drops — all markets where sellers outnumber buyers.

• A shortage of affordable, move-in-ready inventory is pushing prices up nationally, even as buyer demand remains soft overall.

• The luxury segment is a major driver: high-end home prices are rising three times faster than non-luxury homes, with wealthy buyers largely shrugging off high rates and economic uncertainty.

• Buyers in places like Nashville or Austin still have leverage, while sellers in tight markets like San Francisco can push for higher prices.

My take

True, prices are rising nationally, but that’s not the real story. It's that this growth is uneven and driven by narrow forces, not broad demand. Tight inventory and a luxury market where wealthy buyers are shrugging off high rates are doing most of the heavy lifting, while metros like Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio are actually seeing prices fall, giving regular buyers there real leverage. San Francisco sums up the divergence perfectly: prices dipped month-over-month but are up nearly 11% annually, propped up by AI-industry wealth rather than typical demand. So "prices are rising" is true nationally, but geography and price tier matter a lot more right now than the topline number suggests.

Miami is now more expensive than New York

For the first time on record, greater Miami is now more expensive to live in than greater New York City. That surprising fact comes from the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis via Bloomberg. 

Here are the key takeaways:

• It's official: Miami costs more than NYC –  South Florida's cost of living has jumped 36% since 2019 — the biggest spike of any major US metro besides Tampa.

• The savings are in insurance and housing costs, not price tags –  Miami still beats NYC on price per square foot ($357 vs. $537) — but home prices are up 79% since Covid, insurance runs $8,292 a year on average (4x what New Yorkers pay), and property taxes have jumped 62% since 2019.

• Special assessments are the wild card – One Miami couple got hit with a $35,000 assessment on top of $1,200 monthly condo dues — a growing trend since the 2021 Surfside collapse.

• No income tax doesn't mean low tax – Florida's top earners pay just 2.7% of their income in state and local taxes, while the poorest fifth pay 13.2% — the most regressive setup in the country. New York's top earners pay 13.5%; its poorest pay 11.1%.

• The buyer pool is splitting in two –  Billionaires (Zuckerberg, Page, Brin, Griffin) keep buying in Miami regardless of cost. But agents say the "merely well-off" — the professionals the NYC-to-Miami pitch was built for — are increasingly staying put, because the math no longer works.

My take

For years, moving to Miami came with a simple pitch: lower taxes, lower cost of living. That math doesn't hold anymore. Insurance premiums, property taxes, condo assessments, and home prices have all climbed sharply, changing the economics of the move. Ultra-wealthy buyers can still make it work — the tax savings alone are enormous. But for most professionals, the hidden carrying costs now cancel out much of Florida's tax advantage. The lesson for agents is straightforward: today's relocation clients need a complete financial picture, not just a headline about no state income tax.

The toughest metros to sell a home right now

Sellers across the country are hitting a wall this summer. Even traditionally hot markets like Seattle and Boston are cooling. High mortgage rates and stubborn asking prices are pushing sellers toward price cuts and longer waits, with Miami homes now taking a median 104 days to sell and roughly 26% of U.S. listings seeing at least one price cut. It's shaping up to be a buyer's market in more places than usual.

Here are the toughest metros to sell a home right now, by days on market and share of price cuts:

My take

This isn't just a pricing problem; it's an expectations problem. Many sellers are still anchored to 2022-era comps while buyers are making decisions with 7% mortgage rates. That's why markets as different as Miami and Seattle are showing the same symptoms: longer days on market and more price cuts. The agents who succeed over the next year won't be the ones who promise yesterday's prices—they'll be the ones who help sellers price for today's reality.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

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• This is the wrong way to price a listing: ask $125M, sell for $33M

• Career opportunities are exploding in these five cities

• The exact questions to ask buyers after every showing

• How to tell a seller their house is overpriced (without losing the listing)

Foundation Plans

Advice from David to win the day

As I noted above, RealTrends Verified Rankings named me the #6 individual Agent in the nation by sales volume, #3 in California, and #2 in Los Angeles. Since then, one question keeps coming up: How did you get there? 

Over the next few weeks, I want to share some of the lessons that have had the biggest impact on my business. None of them are shortcuts. They're simple principles that, applied consistently over time, compound into extraordinary results.

Focus on listings - I say this all the time because it's true: listings build businesses. If most of your income comes from buyers, you're constantly chasing the next transaction. When your business is driven by listings, you're building leverage, visibility, and a pipeline that keeps generating opportunities. Make becoming a stronger listing agent one of your highest priorities.

Specialize in your strengths – One of the fastest ways to stall your growth is trying to do everything yourself. Figure out what you do better than anyone else, double down on it, and surround yourself with people who complement your weaknesses. The best businesses aren't built by one person doing everything—they're built by great people doing what they do best.

Keep it simple - I've watched agents create complicated systems that end up creating more work than they solve. Complexity rarely scales. Simple processes are easier to execute, easier to improve, and easier for your team to follow consistently. The simpler your business operates, the more time you have to focus on serving clients and generating business.

Invest in yourself - The market changes constantly, and the agents who continue to grow are the ones who never stop learning. Read, find mentors, hire a coach, attend events, and keep sharpening your skills. The best investment you'll ever make is in becoming better at your craft.

I'll share more over the coming weeks. For now, take a few minutes to watch this video. I think you'll find it valuable.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“You’ve gotta keep control of your time, and you can’t unless you say no. You can’t let people set your agenda in life.” — Warren Buffett

Don’t let events or other people set your agenda. Stay ruthlessly focused on your goals — your time is limited, and you only get one life. Make the most of it. Have a wonderful week.

We’ll see you back here on Friday!

- David