Good News: Sellers aren’t panicking or pulling their listings

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There are 57 days left in the year.

That’s not enough time to fix 2026. But it’s almost exactly enough time to decide how 2027 starts.

Real estate runs on a 30-, 60-, and 90-day cycle. The closings you celebrate in February and March are being set up right now, in the conversations you have and the follow-ups you make over the next eight weeks. The slow spring you’re worried about is being decided by the calls you skip.

That’s why random wins never turn into a real business. A lucky deal feels great, but luck isn’t a strategy. 

What produces results is the work you do on a schedule: the check-ins, the follow-ups, the steady presence that keeps your name in front of people when they’re ready to move.

Most agents will spend the next few weeks coasting through the holidays. That’s your advantage.

Start now.

- David

Falling mortgage rates aren’t luring homebuyers back yet

Mortgage rates have now fallen three weeks in a row, yet total mortgage application volume still slipped 1.2% last week, according to the latest update from the Mortgage Bankers Association. 

Even with rates at their lowest point since September, homebuyers are staying on the sidelines.

Here are the key takeaways via CNBC:

• Rates are easing. The 30-year fixed rate dipped to 7.3% from 7.37%, helped by the Fed’s October pause on rate hikes.

• Refinancing is stalled. Refi demand rose just 0.1% for the week and is down 60% year over year, with rates still about a point higher than last year.

• Purchase demand keeps shrinking. Purchase applications fell 2% for the week and are down 19% from a year ago.

• ARMs are gaining ground. The 5/1 ARM rate fell to 6.29%, and the ARM share is at its highest level since September 2025.

• The relief may be short-lived. Fannie Mae puts the average rate on the 30-year fixed at 7.4% for the fourth quarter of this year and 7.5% through all of next year.

My take

Purchase applications are down 19% from a year ago, but those buyers didn’t disappear. They’re still renting, still saving, and still watching rates. People keep forming households, getting new jobs, and having kids, and eventually those needs outlast the wait for a perfect rate. Three straight weeks of declines won’t spark a rush, but they show rates can move in buyers’ favor. If rates fall even another half point, the market could swing from frozen to crowded fast. So get your buyer clients ready to make a move when rates come down.

Buyers are pulling back, but sellers aren’t panicking 

With mortgage rates above 7%, homebuyers are pulling back and staying on the sidelines. As a result, pending sales fell 10.5% from last year, the largest annual drop since October 2023. 

But unlike buyers, sellers aren’t pulling back from the housing market or panicking. Delistings are an early warning sign of distress, and so far that signal isn’t flashing. It’s in check.

In October, about 4.4% of active listings were taken off the market, slightly below the 4.6% from a year ago. That’s only a modest, seasonal increase from September’s 4%, according to realtor.com.

Here are the facts to know:

• Price cuts are plateauing: 20.5% of listings had a price cut, the highest October share since 2022. Still, the rate dipped 0.3 points from September, ending a nine-month climb.

• New listings dropped: They fell 9.5% month over month and 7.5% year over year, the steepest drop in more than three years.

• Inventory is building: Active listings rose 7.4% year over year to more than 1.18 million homes.

• Cuts vary by region: Price cuts ranged from 16.8% of listings in the Northeast to 21.9% in the West. Indianapolis (31.8%) and Denver (31.3%) led the major metros.

• Buyers gain leverage: Rising days on market are giving buyers more room to negotiate repairs, concessions, and lower prices. 

My take

There’s a standoff happening right now. Buyers can't stomach 7%+ mortgage rates, while sellers, many sitting on cheap pandemic-era loans, feel little pressure to slash prices. Both sides are waiting each other out. But the balance is slowly shifting. Inventory is up 7.4% from last year, homes are taking longer to sell, and buyers have more room to negotiate. Eventually, something has to give: either rates ease enough to bring buyers back, or sellers who need to move become more willing to compromise. Until then, buyers who can afford to act have an advantage they haven't had in a while: more choices, less competition, and greater leverage at the negotiating table.

Metros millionaire renters are moving to

The number of US households earning at least $1 million a year that choose to rent rose 229%.

That outpaced the 193% growth in millionaire homeowner households over the same period, according to RentCafe’s analysis of Census Bureau data comparing the 2016–2020 and 2020–2024 estimates. 

New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles still have the most millionaire renters, but cities in the South are gaining them fastest.

Here are the top 10 metros where the number of millionaire renters grew the most:

1. Houston, TX

2. Naples, FL

3. Miami, FL

4. Seattle, WA

5. Los Angeles, CA

6. Denver, CO

7. St. Louis, MO

8. Dallas, TX

9. Boston, MA

10. Phoenix, AZ

My take

Millionaire renters represent two opportunities for agents. First, many are potential buyers. Some are executives relocating for work who rent while they get to know a new city, so build relationships now, and you’ll be well-positioned when they’re ready to buy. Second, luxury rentals are a lucrative business in their own right. High-end leases can generate substantial commissions, and the client you help today could be your next sale.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• How every major housing measure did on election day

• What the Dems’ win in the midterms means for real estate

• Ranked: the 8 best lead generation alternatives to Zillow

• Here’s how to use AI to build your real estate business

• Business planning masterclass w/Sharran Srivatsaa, former Real Brokerage President

Foundation Plans

Advice from David to win the day

In real estate, it’s easy to be a “one-hit wonder” — a one-deal-and-done kind of agent — especially when you’re starting out. But a real estate career isn’t built on one big sale. It’s built on consistency: daily effort, follow-up, and building genuine relationships.

As part of our Prep for 2027 series, today I break down pillars for building consistent success that I think are key:

1. Consistency builds the pipeline –  Success in real estate comes down to showing up – every day. Whether it’s cold calling, hosting open houses, or networking, consistency compounds. Agents who treat every effort as part of a long-term system, rather than a one-off task, end up with a steady stream of clients instead of just one lucky deal.

2. Relationships over transactions –  The best prospecting doesn’t feel like selling; it feels like helping. Checking in with past clients, friends, and contacts builds trust and keeps you top of mind when opportunity strikes. People work with those they like and remember, and genuine outreach always outperforms scripted pitches.

3. Mindset is everything – Too many agents approach prospecting with anxiety or avoidance. Shift your focus from “I have to sell” to “I get to help.” That single change in mindset turns calls into conversations and builds confidence over time—because service, not desperation, is what clients respond to.

4. Combine preparation with authenticity – Every great call starts with preparation and ends with authenticity. Know your market stats, recent sales, and neighborhood trends so you can offer real value—but deliver it in your own voice, not a script. Clients don’t want rehearsed lines; they want confidence, enthusiasm, and honesty—and when you pair knowledge with genuine energy, people can feel it.

Remember: the agents who win aren’t the loudest – they’re the ones who keep calling, caring, and showing up long after everyone else stops!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“You’ve gotta keep control of your time, and you can’t unless you say no. You can’t let people set your agenda in life.” — Warren Buffett

Don’t let events or other people set your agenda. Stay ruthlessly focused on your goals — your time is limited, and you only get one life. Make the most of it. Have a wonderful week.

We’ll see you back here on Friday!

- David