New listings hit a 4 year high – giving buyers more options

Your pipeline IS your business

As I said in my recent interview with NAR, real estate is a simple business but people love to overcomplicate it. Whatever else you learn from me, don’t do that. Keep it simple.

Your number one job is to build your pipeline. I’ve always looked at my pipeline as my business: if it’s healthy, my business is healthy. If it dries up, eventually my business does too.

That’s why prospecting can’t depend on how busy you are, how you feel, or what the market is doing. Make building your pipeline a non-negotiable part of every day — in good markets or bad.

Scroll down to today’s Foundation Plans for some practical ways to keep your pipeline full, and watch my video where I go deeper on exactly how to do it.

- James

New listings are surging

New listings rose 2.1% week over week (up 8% year over year) to their highest level since August 2022, while total active listings ticked up 0.4% to 1.51 million. This is giving homebuyers more leverage and pushing the U.S. market further into the buyer’s market territory as a whole. 

Here’s what to know via Redfin:

• Demand hasn't kept pace. While supply is surging, demand isn’t keeping up. Pending home sales slipped 0.1% week over week to their lowest level since February, down 2.5% year over year.

• Prices are still rising, but modestly. The median sale price climbed to $398,632, up 2.2% year over year, while mortgage rates remain elevated at 6.66% (weekly average) — near a one-year high.

• Sellers are starting to adjust. The median asking price edged down 0.1% year over year, and 20.9% of listings now have price drops, up from 20.2%.

• The market isn't uniform. Just over a quarter of homes (25.9%) still sell above asking price. Hot markets like San Francisco (+9% sale price) and West Palm Beach (+8.1%) are seeing strong gains, while affordable metros like Milwaukee (+8.8% pending sales) and Cincinnati (+3.2%) are drawing buyer interest.

• Balance is improving. Months of supply rose to 4 (from 3.7), inching toward the 4–5 month range considered a balanced market.

My take

Buyers finally have the upper hand, but high mortgage rates are making it difficult to use it. New listings are hitting levels we haven't seen since 2022, sellers are cutting prices, and yet pending sales just fell to a seven-month low. That tells you the problem isn't a lack of choice anymore — it's affordability. More inventory can give buyers negotiating leverage, but the real unlock for housing this fall will be mortgage rates coming down.

Free market data you can drop right into your listing presentations

Want instant credibility with clients? Show up with current, local market data. Zillow’s free interactive research tools give you the insights you need. Bring those visuals directly into your presentations and buyer conversations. Whether you're advising a seller on pricing strategy or helping a buyer understand what's happening in their target neighborhood, having clean, up-to-date data at your fingertips makes a real difference. It's free, it's always current, and it takes the guesswork out of the conversation.

Luxury markets in Florida are outperforming the U.S. luxury market

Luxury home prices in Miami climbed 18% year over year in July 2026 — more than three times the national luxury price growth rate of 5.3%, according to Redfin’s latest report on the luxury market. 

Here are the key takeaways from their update:

• Miami and Tampa lead the nation in luxury price growth. Miami's 18% year-over-year increase was the largest among the 50 most populous U.S. metros, followed closely by Tampa at 15.4% — both far outpacing the 5.3% national average.

• West Palm Beach is seeing the fastest sales growth in the country. Luxury home sales there jumped 43.9% year over year in July, compared to just 5% nationally, while pending luxury sales rose 20.1% — the second-highest increase in the U.S.

• The gains are concentrated at the top of the market. While luxury prices soared, non-luxury home prices actually fell 1.3% in Miami and were roughly flat (up 0.3%) in Tampa, underscoring a widening gap between the high end and the rest of the housing market.

• Shrinking inventory is adding fuel to price growth. The number of homes for sale dropped 18.1% year over year in Miami and 16.1% in Tampa, tightening supply just as demand from affluent buyers stays strong.

• Wealthy buyers are largely insulated from higher mortgage rates. Many purchases are being made in cash, driven by an influx of billionaires, tech entrepreneurs, executives, and finance professionals relocating to Florida for its tax advantages, climate, and waterfront lifestyle — including Mark Zuckerberg's recent $170 million purchase on Miami's Indian Creek Island.

• West Palm Beach is emerging as "Wall Street South." Major financial firms like Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo have expanded operations in the area, drawing high-earning professionals who are helping power the region's luxury market alongside affluent retirees.

• Florida dominates the nation's priciest sales. The state accounted for half of 2026's most expensive home sales so far, reinforcing its status as a magnet for the ultra-wealthy — even as Miami has reportedly become the most expensive of the 10 largest U.S. metros to live in overall

My take

Miami’s luxury prices are up 18% while non-luxury prices in the same city are actually falling. That gap tells you this isn’t just about housing demand — it’s about money moving into Miami, much of it from cash buyers who aren’t nearly as affected by high mortgage rates. And this looks like more than a temporary cycle. The “Wall Street South” shift is changing who’s moving to Florida. It’s no longer just wealthy retirees — companies and high-income jobs are moving there too, bringing the kind of wealth that can sustain luxury demand over the long term

Where “affordability refugees” are leaving and moving to

Buyers priced out of expensive metros (aka: “affordability refugees”) are increasingly searching for homes outside of their local market. Realtor.com reports that cross-market home searches hit 60%+ across the top 100 US metros this spring, up from about 48% in 2019.

Metros in the West lead in outbound traffic (65.6%), followed by the South (59.8%), Northeast (58.3%), and Midwest (56.1%).

Here are the top 10 metros where affordability refugees are leaving and where they are moving to when departing from those metros:

My take

The takeaway isn't that people are leaving expensive cities — that's old news. It's that the migration no longer follows a simple "expensive to cheap" pattern. Denver and Salt Lake City, once considered affordable alternatives themselves, are now producing their own affordability refugees, who are looking to Colorado Springs and Ogden. Meanwhile, San Francisco — one of the most expensive markets in the country — is the top destination for buyers priced out of San Jose, proof that affordability isn't just about the price tag; it's about the price tag relative to income and opportunity. Increasingly, buyers aren't moving somewhere cheap; they're moving one rung down the affordability ladder while trying to hold onto the jobs and wages that made the top rung worth staying near in the first place.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• Both are tech hubs, but San Francisco is booming while Seattle slumps

• How AI is disrupting appraisals

• Want more listings? Start posting this type of content

• Ranked: the best and worst states to retire in by WalletHub

• Use this to build your pipeline from scratch

Foundation Plans

Advice from James to win the day

Lead generation is the lifeblood of every real estate business. Without a consistent flow of new prospects, even the best agents eventually hit a ceiling. That’s why agents must make lead generation a daily discipline. If you want to finish the year strong, it’s non-negotiable that you prioritize lead generation over the next 80 days, from Labor Day to Thanksgiving. 

Here are four tips to help you simplify and systematize your approach.

1. Have a clear vision of who you are prospecting – Before you can start making calls, you need clarity on who you’re targeting. Are you focusing on your sphere of influence, expired listings, FSBOs, circle dialing, or old internet leads? Each group requires a different script and strategy, so defining your “who” ensures your efforts are focused and intentional. Without this, you risk wasting time on vague outreach that rarely produces results.

2. Prioritize lead generation by putting it on your calendar – If it’s not on your calendar, it doesn’t happen. Blocking out daily or weekly windows dedicated solely to lead generation is non-negotiable. This commitment not only creates consistency but also eliminates the temptation to get distracted by non-income-producing activities. Treat your prospecting time as sacred—just like an appointment with a client.

3. Prepare in advance – Great lead generation is about preparation, not improvisation or thinking on the fly. Know what scripts you’ll use, anticipate the objections you’re likely to hear, and practice your delivery so that your confidence comes through. Lazy follow-ups like “just checking in” won’t cut it. Your outreach should always be purposeful, value-driven, and backed by a clear message. Plus, you’ll be surprised: the better you prepare, the better you’ll think on your feet.  

4. Make yourself referable –  More than 65% of sellers choose their agent because of a referral or experience. And more than 80% of buyers say they would use their agent again, yet very few actually do because their agent doesn’t keep in touch. Becoming more referable comes down to how you present yourself, how you communicate, and what kind of professional you are on a day-to-day basis. Make the transaction about the client. Communicate consistently. Be on time. Prepare for every meeting. Know the contracts. Know the market data. Do those things while helping clients at a high level, and you just became way more referable.

Breezy

Feature of the Week — Efficiency

Breezy runs alongside real estate agents throughout the day and acts as an AI personal assistant in real time.

At a high level, Breezy does these things:

• Captures and organizes conversations so no follow-up or detail gets lost

• Generates branded comps and reports on the fly, ready for clients

• Keeps your pipeline current automatically, without manual updating

• Reveals how you can reposition and develop your property through proprietary software we call Underbuilt

Instead of agents juggling spreadsheets, notes apps, CRM updates, and presentation tools, Breezy brings those workflows together.

Get Breezy here!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.” — Steve Jobs

Each day is a gift – a chance to live the life you want. Ruthlessly focus on your goals. Don’t let your past or the fear of being judged distract or paralyze you. Choose to live with an integrity that you can be proud of.

Have a wonderful weekend, and I’ll see you back here next Friday!

- James