Home Prices: Still growing, just not as fast

Real estate is a “contact” sport

One of the great parts about our hyper-connected world is that we can keep in touch with thousands upon thousands of people. Of course, that’s also one of the most overwhelming parts! 

But, in our industry, those contacts are extremely valuable, and it’s crucial that we do our best to manage and preserve them. This business isn’t just about who you know; it’s remembering who you know. Staying organized. Maintaining contact databases. Keeping that information updated.

In fact, while you may be on the hunt right now for your next client, it could very well be that you already know that person. Scroll down to today’s Foundation Plans for some tips on how to make the most of your already-existing contacts.

And, on your way down, catch up on all the top stories we’re tracking today.

- David

Home sales forecast to be higher in 2026 — but just barely

According to Realtor.com's midyear forecast update, U.S. home prices will grow by 1.2% in 2026, down from its original forecast of 2.2%. Home sales are still expected to inch higher this year, but inflation is projected to outpace home price growth, meaning home values will decline in inflation-adjusted terms.

Here are the other key takeaways from its revised projection:

• Mortgage rates remain the biggest obstacle – Realtor.com still expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.3% through the end of 2026. That's down from 6.6% last year but well above the roughly 4% average from 2013 to 2019, continuing to weigh on affordability.

• Home sales will remain subdued – Existing-home sales are projected to reach 4.10 million this year, down slightly from the original 4.13 million forecast but still about 1.0% higher than 2025. Buyers are gradually returning, but borrowing costs continue to limit activity.

• Inventory is growing, but not as fast as hoped – More homeowners are putting their properties on the market, giving buyers more choices. Meanwhile, Realtor.com expects national rents to decline another 1.2% in 2026, making renting a more attractive option in many markets.

• Housing markets are becoming more regional – Price growth and affordability continue to diverge across metros. While coastal markets still dominate the luxury segment, only five major metros have a typical luxury home priced below $1 million, showing that luxury price growth is spreading beyond the traditional coastal markets.

My take

This isn't a market to celebrate, but it isn't one to write off either. Sales are on pace to finish ahead of 2025, and buyers are getting some real relief. Monthly payments are now projected to be 1.9% lower than last year, better than Realtor.com's original forecast. The catch is that relief is coming from slower home-price growth, not lower mortgage rates, so it's happening gradually rather than all at once. If you've been waiting for a dramatic reset, this isn't it. But if you've been waiting for affordability to improve at the margins, 2026 is quietly moving in that direction.

More agents say the housing market is becoming balanced

44% of real estate agents now describe their local market as balanced, up from 30% in the third quarter of 2025, according to CNBC’s latest Housing Market Survey. 

Here’s what else the business news outlet reports:

• Inventory is improving, helping sales recover – Existing-home sales in May rose 3% year over year, supported by a growing supply of homes and easing asking prices. Buyers have more options than they did during the pandemic-driven housing shortage.

• Sellers are pricing homes more realistically – The share of agents reporting at least one price cut on an active listing fell from 89% in Q3 2025 to 57% this quarter, suggesting sellers are listing homes closer to market value from the start. Agents also reported fewer canceled contracts as buyers and sellers are reaching agreements more easily.

• Asking prices are softening – Realtor.com reported that June asking prices fell 2.5% year over year, the largest decline since it began tracking the data in 2017 and the eighth consecutive month of annual declines. However, closed-sale prices remain slightly above last year's levels.

• Mortgage rates remain buyers' biggest hurdle – 37% of agents said mortgage rates are buyers' top concern, up from 33% in the first quarter and 26% at the end of last year. Concerns about the broader economy have faded, but affordability continues to dominate purchasing decisions.

My take

CNBC is a reputable outlet, but we're not putting too much weight on this particular survey. It's small (53 agents) and captures self-reported sentiment, not hard transaction data — useful as a vibe check, not a precise measure. The 44%-balanced figure looks more like sellers giving up leverage than buyers gaining it: price cuts and asking prices are both down sharply, yet closed prices remain above last year's levels, meaning sellers are cutting from inflated asks and still landing close to where they wanted. And while the survey suggests economic concerns have faded, we're not convinced — we think affordability still dominates buyer decisions, and broader economic unease hasn't gone away.

Only 5 major metros have luxury homes starting below $1M

Luxury real estate is becoming even more exclusive. Just five major U.S. metros still have a typical luxury home selling for less than $1 million, down from eight a year ago as home values continue climbing. While the broader housing market has cooled, high-end homes have remained remarkably resilient, with luxury prices rising faster than the rest of the market

Here are the major metro with most and least expensive luxury median home sale price:

My take

Luxury buyers are less sensitive to mortgage rates because many pay cash or make substantial down payments, helping the high-end market remain resilient even as the broader housing market slows. The more interesting story isn't San Francisco's $6.6 million luxury homes; that's nothing new. It's that markets like Indianapolis, St. Louis, and Columbus have crossed the $1 million mark, showing that luxury price growth is spreading beyond the traditional coastal markets. Keep in mind that "luxury" simply means the top 5% of homes in each metro, making this less a comparison of cities than a snapshot of how each local market's upper tier is outpacing everyone else.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• Kelley Blue Book is now in the home valuation game

• Ranked: the best real estate brochure examples and templates

• Berkshire Hathaway just bought another home builder

• This is sparking a new wave of apartment conversions

• Use these conversation starters to keep your pipeline moving this summer

Foundation Plans

Advice from David to win the day

We always focus on finding new leads, but you can generate a lot of business from repeats and referrals. Here are three tips on how to maximize the contacts you already have.

Organize your database - If your CRM consists of a bunch of names and random quotes, it’s time to clean it up. Although it might be a total pain at first, this is an important step in keeping up good communication with all your contacts and how you engage with them. For example, you wouldn’t talk to a lifelong friend the same way you would your dentist. Find some good tips on how you can organize your database here.

Spend every day in your database - Once you have your database organized, it should stay that way. Try to spend at least 10 minutes each day cleaning, organizing, and combing your leads. This will save you a lot of headaches in the long term, and also allow you to build out an effective contact system.

Set up an engagement strategy - Once you’ve organized your CRM, you can start building out your email campaigns. These emails should be customized for clients at different parts of their real estate journey. Make sure you’re offering value and keeping your leads engaged. Make your voice personable, your emails simple, and your contact information visible.

To learn more about managing your CRM, start here. And to get a ranking of best CRMs, read this from The Close.  

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“You’ve gotta keep control of your time, and you can’t unless you say no. You can’t let people set your agenda in life.” — Warren Buffett

Don’t let events or other people set your agenda. Stay ruthlessly focused on your goals — your time is limited, and you only get one life. Make the most of it. Have a wonderful week. We’ll see you back here on Friday!

- David