80% of major metros are now buyer's markets

Build your network

Recently, my friend and colleague Glennda interviewed Taya DiCarlo on her excellent podcast, and something Taya said stopped me in my tracks.

Taya has been a hugely successful agent in LA’s South Bay since 2011, but she didn’t receive her first agent referral until March 2020.

Today, referrals account for a third of her business.

That should tell you something. Referrals can become a major source of business, but you have to build the network that produces them.

Scroll down to today’s Foundation Plans to learn how to do exactly that.

- James

80% of major metros are now buyer’s markets

The number of homebuyers in the market dropped to a record low of about 967,000 in July, nearly half a million fewer than the 1,463,000 sellers competing for their attention. As a result, nearly 80% of major U.S. metros moved into buyer's-market territory, leaving just six metros where sellers still hold the advantage, according to Redfin's latest market update.

Here’s what else to know:

• Sellers outnumber buyers by 51.3% nationally — just shy of December's record of 51.8%, and up sharply from 47.9% in June.

• Miami leads the pack with 154% more sellers than buyers, followed by Nashville (150.8%) and a trio of Texas metros: Houston (129.8%), San Antonio (116.3%), and Austin (111.9%).

• Most buyer's markets got even more buyer-friendly — 34 of 39 saw their seller surplus grow month over month, with Miami, Seattle, and Fort Worth posting the biggest jumps.

• Only six metros still favor sellers, led by Nassau County, NY (-36.2%) and Newark, NJ (-20.7%) — mostly places near NYC job centers where new construction has stayed limited.

• Prices are rising faster where sellers have the edge: home prices climbed 4.2% year-over-year in the six seller's markets, compared to 2.3% in the 39 buyer's markets.

My take

This is basically the most buyer-friendly the market has been in years, but don't mistake "buyer's market" for "cheap." Prices are still climbing, even in the metros where buyers hold the leverage. What's actually happening is that buyers who can afford today's rates and prices have real negotiating power, while everyone else simply isn't shopping. If you're a buyer who's been sitting on the sidelines and can stomach the mortgage rate, the next few weeks before the fall rush are probably your best shot at a deal all year. If you're a seller in one of these 39 markets, price it right and expect to negotiate — buyers have options.

The starter home shortage is easing — but unevenly

There are 220,000 more starter homes for sale nationally than there were at the depths of the 2022 housing crunch, and prices for them have dipped slightly since then. That’s a reversal from the sharp shortages and price spikes of the pandemic years. 

But, according to Realtor.com, the recovery is playing out very differently depending on where you live, and buying power hasn't caught up.

Here’s what they report:

• What counts as a "starter home"? Realtor.com defines it as any listing priced below $350,000 nationally, or below 80% of a local market's median list price — typically smaller, more modest homes that serve as a first step for buyers without existing equity.

• Inventory is improving, but still down from pre-pandemic levels. Even with recent gains, the market remains about 300,000 listings short of where it stood in 2019.

• Affordability has gotten tougher overall. The typical starter home now costs $344,000, up from $256,000 in 2019, and qualifying for one now takes roughly $78,000 in household income, nearly double the $43,000 needed seven years ago.

• The South is leading the turnaround. A construction boom in Texas, Florida, and the Carolinas has added nearly 170,000 affordable listings since 2022, with prices actually falling 3.5% over that span.

• The Northeast is moving the wrong way. Starter home prices there have climbed 12.6% since 2022 alone and now sit almost 50% above 2019 levels, squeezed by limited land, restrictive zoning, and strong demand.

• More listings haven't meant more sales. Affordable-home purchases are still down year-over-year in most regions, since with mortgage rates near 6.5%, the real barrier for buyers now is qualifying for a loan, not just finding a home.

My take

This is real progress, but greater availability doesn’t imply greater affordability. The South shows what happens when builders add supply: buyers get more choices and prices begin to soften. But nationally, a starter home still requires nearly twice the income it did in 2019. That’s the bigger story here. The starter-home shortage is beginning to heal, but until incomes, prices, or mortgage rates move enough to restore purchasing power, many first-time buyers will still struggle to take advantage of it.

Free market data you can drop right into your listing presentations

Want instant credibility with clients? Show up with current, local market data. Zillow’s free interactive research tools give you the insights you need. Bring those visuals directly into your presentations and buyer conversations. Whether you're advising a seller on pricing strategy or helping a buyer understand what's happening in their target neighborhood, having clean, up-to-date data at your fingertips makes a real difference. It's free, it's always current, and it takes the guesswork out of the conversation.

The most expensive luxury markets

Luxury homes took longer to sell in July than in June across every tier, which is typical for the midsummer season. But they’re still moving faster than they were a year ago. 

The entry-level luxury tier — the top 10% of listings — spent a median of 68 days on the market, 3 days faster than in July 2025. High-end luxury (top 5%) took 76 days, also 3 days faster year over year, while ultraluxury homes (top 1%) took 91 days, 5 days faster. By comparison, the typical listing spent 57 days on the market, 1 day faster than a year ago.

Faster sales haven’t changed which metros rank at the top, though. Here are ten priciest entry-level luxury markets in the country:

1. Bridgeport, CT: $4,130,000

2. Los Angeles, CA: $3,997,157

3. Wailuku, HI: $3,950,000

4. Naples-Marco Island, FL: $3,687,718

5. San Jose, CA: $3,273,750

6. Oxnard, CA: $2,949,150

7. New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ: $2,851,904

8. Crestview, FL: $2,806,764

9. San Diego, CA: $2,766,487

10. Atlantic City, NJ: $2,616,950

My take

Expensive isn’t the same thing as appreciating. Eight of these 10 metros actually have lower luxury thresholds than they did a year ago. Bridgeport, for example, remains No. 1 at $4.13 million even after falling 5.5%. Naples-Marco Island (+5.5%) and Atlantic City (+4.8%) are the only exceptions. That distinction matters for us agents: a market can remain extraordinarily expensive even while sellers are losing some pricing power.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

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• The tax trick that saved Jeff Bezos $610M

• Dream Finder is buying Beazer for $915M – now the nation's sixth-largest homebuilder

Foundation Plans

Advice from James to win the day

As I mentioned up top, Taya says that a third of her business comes from referrals. That shouldn’t surprise you. For most realtors, more than a quarter of their business will come from referrals, both from clients and other agents. 

So, how do you build a stronger agent-to-agent referral network? Start here:

Use the power of referral fees - This incentivizes agents from feeder markets to send you valuable referrals. Make sure you spread the word. Connect and communicate with agents in these markets and create mutually beneficial partnerships. Watch one of our colleagues as he expertly does this on IG. 

Farm agents for referrals - Real estate is a people business. Strategically target and connect with agents who specialize in your market. Make sure you establish yourself as a resourceful referral partner among these agents, whether it’s through your marketing materials, the way you carry yourself, or your market knowledge. This will lead to a continuous influx of referrals. 

Make sure you follow up - After receiving a referral, make sure to follow up with a phone call. Nurture these leads effectively and build strong relationships with referring agents. This will help guarantee that you’ll get more business from them in the long run.

If you want more advice on making referrals part of your toolkit, watch this and start upping your game.

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At a high level, Breezy does these things:

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Instead of agents juggling spreadsheets, notes apps, CRM updates, and presentation tools, Breezy brings those workflows together.

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Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.” — Steve Jobs

Each day is a gift – a chance to live the life you want. Ruthlessly focus on your goals. Don’t let your past or the fear of being judged distract or paralyze you. Choose to live with an integrity that you can be proud of.

Have a wonderful weekend, and I’ll see you back here next Friday!

- James