2026: A record year for $100 million listings

A tale of two cities, er, markets

David and I have been talking about this for a while now, and 2026 keeps making the case: The U.S. housing market is really two very different markets.

Luxury homes are selling fast while starter homes sit unsold. And at the very top, this is shaping up to be a banner year for $100 million listings. There are nearly twice as many as last year and nearly three times as many as in 2019.

That's remarkable when you consider what's happening everywhere else. Mortgage rates are high, affordability is stretched, and millions of would-be buyers are struggling to make the numbers work. Meanwhile, a growing class of buyers is shopping for nine-figure homes.

The bottom line: There has never been a single housing market, and there definitely isn't one right now. As agents, we have to keep that reality front and center and calibrate accordingly.

Let’s get into it.

- James

The rise of the nine-figure listing 

From January through August 2026, 17 U.S. homes hit the market at $100 million or more, nearly double the nine listed during the same stretch of 2025. That’s according to newly released data from Redfin in a report by The New York Times.

Here’s what The Times reveals about this growing trend:

• $100M listings have nearly tripled since 2019. Redfin counted six $100 million-plus listings in early 2019 versus 17 this year. South Florida is leading at 11 such listings right now.

• New wealth is fueling demand. Tax cuts, a strong stock market, and the A.I. boom are minting billionaires who see trophy homes as collectibles.

• Homes are becoming private resorts. Wealthy buyers are assembling compounds by purchasing neighboring lots, adding amenities like bowling alleys, wellness centers, office suites and classrooms. One Los Angeles listing spans 70,000 square feet with 39 bedrooms across two houses and is priced at $400 million.

• List prices don't always translate to sales. A Bel Air mansion once pitched at $500 million auctioned for $126 million, and a $150 million Manhattan penthouse was pulled after failing to sell twice. Extreme pricing is often a play for media attention.

• The U.S. record still stands at $238 million. No American sale has topped Ken Griffin's 2019 purchase of a Manhattan penthouse. Abroad, prices run higher: a Monaco apartment sold for roughly $550 million in 2024, and a London mansion set a U.K. record at about $350.5 million in April 2026.

My take

There is no single housing market, and the ultra-luxury market might as well be its own universe. These buyers are largely insulated from rising mortgage rates and affordability issues shaping the rest of housing, and they often treat homes as collectibles rather than just places to live. As the Times piece shows, they want privacy, scale, and amenities that turn a house into a private resort. That means agents need to recalibrate: what matters to a $500,000 buyer may barely register with a $50 million one. If you're looking to break into this world, read my primer on working with ultra-wealthy clients here.

Zillow's Unlock 2026 conference: registration is open

Zillow's Unlock 2026 is worth getting on your calendar now. The 3-day conference brings together agents from across the country to share real strategies, not just theory, on how to grow your business in today's market. Past attendees consistently say the peer-to-peer sessions are the most valuable part - it provides practical advice they could apply the moment they get home. It's happening October 12–15 in Las Vegas, registration is now open to the public, and early access pricing is available for a limited time. Secure your spot at unlockconference.com.

Metros with the biggest share of price drops 

21% of U.S. home sellers dropped their asking price during the four weeks ending September 20, according to Redfin. That’s up slightly from 19.8% a year earlier and a record for this time of year in data going back to 2022.

The small size of that jump is telling. Rather than slashing prices, many owners are holding off on listing, pulling homes that don't fetch their number, and some are pricing realistically from the start.

Here are the markets that had the largest share of sellers who cut their asking prices:

1. Denver: 30.9%

2. Indianapolis: 29.9%

3. San Antonio: 26.8%

4. Dallas: 26.6%

5. Austin: 26.1%

My take

A rising price-drop rate usually means sellers overshot and a cooling market forced them to adjust. But that's not quite what's happening now. Demand is sluggish, bidding wars are scarce, and homes are sitting longer, yet the share of sellers cutting prices has barely budged from last year. That suggests sellers are adjusting in ways that don't show up as price cuts. Some owners are staying put rather than listing into a weak market, others are pulling homes that don't get their price, and sellers who do list are increasingly pricing for the market they're actually in.

Metros with the highest flipping rates

In Q2 2026, 77,991 single-family homes and condominiums were flipped, accounting for 6.2% of all home sales, according to ATTOM. That flipping rate was down from 8% the previous quarter and 7.3% in Q2 2025.

The number of flipped homes rose from 64,760 the previous quarter but remained below the 80,477 flipped a year earlier. 

Among metros with populations over 1 million, these markets with the highest and lowest flipping rates:

My take

Flippers didn’t disappear in Q2. They flipped nearly 78,000 homes, about 13,000 more than in Q1. But the broader market grew faster, pushing their share of sales down to 6.2%. For agents, the more useful number is what’s happening locally. In Cleveland, Memphis and Dallas, roughly one in 10 sales is still a flip, making investors a client base worth courting: they have capital, they transact repeatedly and they’re actively looking for opportunities. In Seattle or Rochester, they’re a much smaller part of the market. The lesson is simple: know who’s actually transacting in your market, then put your time and marketing dollars where the activity is.

Schematics

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• Meet the microhome: Check out the photos before you say no

Foundation Plans

Advice from James to win the day

While most of your business should come from listings, some of it will inevitably involve representing buyers. Even though so many potential buyers are on the sidelines right now, many of them will jump back in. It’s only a matter of time. When they do, your goal as an agent is simple: deliver so much value that clients refer you to friends and never question whether your fee is worth it.

Here are some tips on how to raise your game as a buyer's agent:

1. Be ready with your buyer presentation. Pitch buyers the way you'd pitch sellers in a listing presentation. Walk them through the whole process: your role, their role, what to expect, and how you'll work together. We've seen it work. Treat buyer business as something you have to compete for, because more and more, you do.

2. Sign a buyer agreement. This is now essential. Under the NAR settlement rules, agents must have a written agreement with a buyer before touring a home. But don't treat it as just another form. Use it to spell out your services, responsibilities, compensation, and what the buyer can expect from you. If you need a starting point, University at Buffalo law professor Tanya Monestier created a well-regarded sample buyer representation agreement.

3. Know the financing options. We're not telling you to play mortgage lender. In fact, we're telling you not to. But you should be able to speak confidently about rate buydowns, adjustable-rate mortgages, and paying points to lower the rate on a 30-year fixed loan. Then bring the buyer's loan officer in to handle the specifics. Most buyers know little about the financial side of homebuying, so simply asking the right questions and connecting them with the right people adds real value. This is especially important now as mortgage rates are rising and affordability is a major issue for so many buyers.

4. Stay ahead of the process. Be more proactive than your buyer. If they're set on one neighborhood, door-knock it to find the next motivated seller. Manage the inspection so they understand what matters and don't panic over minor issues. Help with utilities, recommend movers, connect them with homeowners insurance providers, and look for any other way to take stress off their plate. Show your value by doing the thinking and planning for them.

The best buyer's agents don't just find homes. They anticipate problems, coordinate the details, and make buying easier. Do that consistently, and clients will understand exactly what they're paying you for.

For more on becoming a stronger buyer's agent, start here and here.

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Feature of the Week — Efficiency

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At a high level, Breezy does these things:

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Instead of agents juggling spreadsheets, notes apps, CRM updates, and presentation tools, Breezy brings those workflows together.

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Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.” — Steve Jobs

Each day is a gift – a chance to live the life you want. Ruthlessly focus on your goals. Don’t let your past or the fear of being judged distract or paralyze you. Choose to live with an integrity that you can be proud of.

Have a wonderful weekend, and I’ll see you back here next Friday!

- James